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The NFT market bubble has popped?

171 点作者 dantondwa将近 4 年前

27 条评论

powerapple将近 4 年前
One thing I have noticed when listening to the interviews of NFT companies is that, when describing NFT is the future, the arguments from these founders are examples of people/artists made money by selling NFT online. It has become more and more a theme for cryptocurrency technology has well: the reason you should be in is that other people have made money rather than the benefit of the technology itself. It is not a good sign.
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lifeisstillgood将近 4 年前
These cycles are getting faster:<p>1. I read a post on HN extolling a new use of some technology. I understand <i>how</i> it works but don&#x27;t get <i>why</i>. I do not jump on the bandwagon.<p>2. I read about the same technology but not on HN - maybe an online newspaper. I recognise there is an upcurve. Maybe I should have jumped when I read it on HN.<p>3. Beeple makes a fortune. My son and I enjoy watching him on corridor crew. I think I still don&#x27;t know <i>why</i> but it can&#x27;t be that bad. I do not jump on the bandwagon.<p>4. I realise I want to know the <i>why</i> makes sense. I play with some tech. I still know <i>how</i> but not <i>why</i>. I do not jump on the bandwagon.<p>5. The bubble bursts. I retro-think my inaction into foresight - I am glad I did not jump on the bandwagon.<p>But, just maybe, perhaps <i>why</i> is less important than <i>try</i>.
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gizmo将近 4 年前
This mania <i>might</i> have one last leg up, but that&#x27;s it.<p>The main thing to remember with markets that have ponzi characteristics is that there are tons of latecomers and few early adopters. While the early adopters might HODL in the face of a 70% downturn, the late adopters won&#x27;t. They FOMOd in because they couldn&#x27;t stand seeing their friends make easy money any longer. They don&#x27;t have conviction because the only reason they&#x27;re in is because they didn&#x27;t want to miss out.<p>This doesn&#x27;t just apply to NFTs but to everything from crypto to meme stocks (AMC, GME, BBBY, EXPR), to SPACS and to ESG stocks, to shipping and commodities, and to leveraged or speculative ETFs.<p>When this bubble pops many assets will be priced way <i>below</i> their actual value. This overreaction won&#x27;t make any sense on the way down just like it hasn&#x27;t made any sense on the way up.<p>For this it doesn&#x27;t even matter if NFTs provide real value and are here to stay. It doesn&#x27;t matter whether a market behaves like a ponzi because it&#x27;s fraud or because it just got too much social media coverage. The only thing that matters is whether a large enough percentage of the market consists of latecomers who will panic sell. If so, any bad news and POP!
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vesinisa将近 4 年前
I am hardly surprised. While Bitcoin maybe had theoretical uses as a currency a decade ago, the NFT hype never made any sense whatsoever to begin with.
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erulabs将近 4 年前
The overwhelmingly negative attitude towards technology on HN lately is upsetting and nauseating. If you don’t like NFTs, don’t buy them (I don’t). If you don’t like some startups product, don’t sign up. In the Boom thread there are people suggesting it’s fraudulent that they’ve taken longer than originally suggested to build supersonic aircraft. I’d very much like to know who elected the naysayers.<p>There are tons and tons and tons of bad ideas all the time. The vast majority of businesses fail and ideas fall by the wayside. This forum used to be a place to celebrate risky business ideas and long shots.<p>I couldn’t care less about the $ amount of NFTs sold today versus last month at the peak - in the end something that didn’t exist now does and clearly it is being used by some people - so congratulations to them and let’s find something we -are- excited about instead of every thread being “what a scam” for every attempt at a new use of technology. If a handful of video game developers use this for game-collectible interchange, awesome! Sounds useful. I don’t care about the vicious judgements of others any more than I want to read about why Facebook was a stupid idea in 2006.
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Yenrabbit将近 4 年前
Ignoring the hype, there are plenty of artists having fun selling work on platforms like hicetnunc for not very much and spending most of their proceeds buying other art. I joined and it&#x27;s great fun trading pieces, coming up with ideas and seeing if anyone likes them, getting inspired by what other artists are doing etc etc etc. I feel like these small art playgrounds where artists can sell limited editions of their work will stick around whatever happens to the big $$$ hype train side of things.
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madjin将近 4 年前
The crypto market is cooling down from its peak, but data about the NFT market shows that it&#x27;s still doing very well. For Ethereum based NFTs there&#x27;s been ~13M in sales in the past 7 days. Sources:<p>- <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nonfungible.com&#x2F;market&#x2F;history" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nonfungible.com&#x2F;market&#x2F;history</a><p>- <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;cryptoslam.io&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;cryptoslam.io&#x2F;</a><p>Similar story to Bitcoin, transactions were the first use-case. Later came smart contracts which expanded the number of various applications that can be developed with blockchain.<p>Collecting art was the first big use-case. More individuals and companies are focused on providing long-term value through utility. One example is NFTs that can unlock access such as someones time, places real or virtual, and communities in a similar way to Discords for patreon members. The art aspect is also evolving into more gamedev themes like artist designed NFTs for digi-physical fashion, avatars, pets, skins, etc.<p>More virtual worlds will compose these blockchain artifacts together, adding more context to them such as: Audio NFTs becoming background music, text NFTs becoming stories and scripts, 3D NFTs can become props, set environments, avatar NFTs become characters and NPCs, and wearable NFTs getting distributed through achievements.<p>All that said, I&#x27;m excited for some pullback because it reminds builders to tune out the noise and stay focused on building.
habosa将近 4 年前
NFTs are dumb however some of the NFT markets have one cool thing that I hope sticks around: the artist gets a cut of all future sales.<p>If you sell your NFT art for $10 and then someone resells it for $1M, you will get some percentage of the $1M.<p>We&#x27;ve all heard the stories of &quot;collector buys 10 Jackson Pollock&#x27;s for $10 in the 70s, sells the collection for $100M today&quot;. Wouldn&#x27;t it be nice if the artist could benefit from that belated appreciation?<p>Like most other things on the blockchain you don&#x27;t really need the blockchain to do this, however this is one case where it&#x27;s actually much simpler to implement the concept using a blockchain and smart contracts rather than any traditional method I&#x27;m aware of.
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henvic将近 4 年前
99% of this cryptocurrency market is a joke (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;henvic.dev&#x2F;posts&#x2F;bitcoin&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;henvic.dev&#x2F;posts&#x2F;bitcoin&#x2F;</a>). I&#x27;m tired of seeing this. Now we&#x27;ve NFT and an antivirus which has a miner embedded. lol
shoto_io将近 4 年前
I am not sure. These charts don’t say a whole lot in my opinion.<p>Sure, if you compare snapshots then there is less activity than say a couple of weeks earlier at the peak. But YoY comparison looks solid for example.<p>I don’t think this is a proper and nuanced analysis.
fighterpilot将近 4 年前
I could&#x27;ve drawn a similar looking graph in 2021-04-01 and arrived at the same conclusion on that basis ... and I would&#x27;ve been wrong.
domid将近 4 年前
Bubbles are not always the end. Actually quite the opposite. It&#x27;s just the beginning.<p>I&#x27;d give about 1-2 years for the NFT market to rebound. As the technology matures so will the supply. Demand will follow.<p>It took about 3 years for Bitcoin to surpass Bitcoin 2017 bubble price levels.<p>It took about 6.8 years for prices to rebound to dot-com bubble price levels.
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josalhor将近 4 年前
The bubble has popped, but these graphs show that we are still at January-February levels of bubble.<p>I am not sure if the market has fully collapsed (Unfortunately?).
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midasuni将近 4 年前
The NFT market is for money laundering, how can it “pop”
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andrefuchs将近 4 年前
One reasons could be that Ethereum gas fees for minting a piece are extremely high at the moment.<p>Tezos ($xtz) based platforms such as <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.hicetnunc.xyz" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.hicetnunc.xyz</a> are thriving. The fees are next to nothing - especially compared to current alternatives.
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cryptica将近 4 年前
There are some legitimate use cases for NFTs but art is not one of them.<p>The best use case I can think of is a kind of DNS domain name system. The domain name is an NFT; it&#x27;s unique and it provides value as it can be integrated with various systems.<p>The intrinsic value of crypto and NFT is in software integrations.
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jokoon将近 4 年前
Was working with a guy to start a card game, it ended, he had other project on NFT. I wonder if I should share this with him. It&#x27;s weird how easy it is to sell any cool sounding tech to laymen, even if laymen understand the tech a little.<p>Why isn&#x27;t everybody able to draw a simple pro&#x2F;con list to have a minimum of skepticism? Is it because it&#x27;s marginally better than having a more normal salesman job, to be a nurse or to stay unemployed?<p>Tech is often like a tulip bubble. Businessmen go into the tulip market because as long as people like tulips, there is money to be made, so it&#x27;s always money lost when you miss a trend.<p>I wish there was some rulebook on how to spot trends that will be short-lived.
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mattdesl将近 4 年前
Stats here fail to track OpenSea, Rarible, Nifty Gateway (three of the largest NFT platforms) and also alt&#x2F;side chains like Tezos (with Hicetnunc which has recently overtaken Eth platforms in daily activity).<p>Though likely the headline still stands - the bubble has popped and weekly sales are down to “only” a few dozen million USD per week. ie: we may start to see how this space will look beyond the hype&#x2F;fad.
qwertox将近 4 年前
That was a barely noticeable bubble. Was it even a market? Just because a tweet and a song got sold, and others sold some art, doesn&#x27;t mean it was a real market. It was a popular trend which ceased to interest people. Like fidget spinners.<p>It will probably become trendy again, once Bitcoin hits the 80&#x27;s, if it ever will.
gpsx将近 4 年前
I&#x27;d like to add that being a bubble doesn&#x27;t mean the object of the bubble is bad. Take the dot com bubble - some of those dot coms are doing pretty well now, like amazon.com, google.com, facebook.com and news.ycombinator.com.
kharak将近 4 年前
I personally rather like the idea of NFTs.<p>NFTs could become gamechangers, in the literal meaning of the word. The project Enjin for instances focuses on NFTs in the gaming world. One selling point is, that you might be able to collect items in one game and transfer it to another. Collect a rare trophy in Fortnite and show it off in your Steam VR Home, the trophies uniqueness and legitimacy verifiable by everyone. Of course, achieving this is easier said than done, but an appealing vision for the future of gaming.<p>Also, it has historically been difficult for digital artists to get paid well, considering that copying their work is easy. I&#x27;m all for changing that. Yes, the image can still be copied, but ownership is it&#x27;s own thing and some people are willing to pay for it.
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dinamic将近 4 年前
Even if it turns out to be a loss for the majority of players, I am still happy for the creators that got a chance to monetize their work. I think Beeple truly deserves the fortune he made.
m00dy将近 4 年前
I think it is too early to call it bubble. NFT transactions are low due to crypto market is down for a month or so.
Bombthecat将近 4 年前
Earth2 makes millions right now i think... It&#x27;s sad
rorykoehler将近 4 年前
That was quick. Rubbish like this will kill crypto. So many grifters in crypto.
maxehmookau将近 4 年前
&quot;Dumb idea is worth no money.&quot; Cool headline.
trhway将近 4 年前
the sale of invisible sculpture just 2 days ago happened using paper certificate instead of NFT. Pity. It would have been match made in heaven.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.npr.org&#x2F;2021&#x2F;06&#x2F;01&#x2F;1002018211&#x2F;italian-artist-sells-invisible-sculpture-for-real-money" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.npr.org&#x2F;2021&#x2F;06&#x2F;01&#x2F;1002018211&#x2F;italian-artist-sel...</a>