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Why wood has gotten so dang expensive

281 点作者 Whitespace将近 4 年前

19 条评论

aazaa将近 4 年前
The article is from May. A lot has happened since then.<p>This chart of lumber futures gives an idea of the recent past (zoom out 1-5 years for perspective):<p>&lt;<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tradingview.com&#x2F;chart&#x2F;?symbol=CME%3ALBS1!" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tradingview.com&#x2F;chart&#x2F;?symbol=CME%3ALBS1!</a>&gt;<p>In a nutshell: a huge advance and now what appears to be a crash (~ -50%) is currently in progress.<p>The bigger picture is how indicative this compressed boom-bust story is of the future of the surge in US inflation. Lumber is showing us how easy it is for the market to reject ridiculous prices. What&#x27;s unclear is how low lumber, and other goods&#x2F;commoditiies that have seen similar booms, can go.<p>Edit: this links seems to work better<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tradingview.com&#x2F;symbols&#x2F;CME-LBS1%21&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tradingview.com&#x2F;symbols&#x2F;CME-LBS1%21&#x2F;</a>
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h2odragon将近 4 年前
The is from May; prices have fallen quite a bit off peaks I hear and some speculators are now trapped under big loads ordered 2 months ago now being delivered.<p>There&#x27;s &quot;we bought a sawmill!&quot; ads here in the rural lands now for fresh sawn green pine and oak; which isn&#x27;t &quot;lumber&quot; yet in any useful sense. I&#x27;ve seen porches being built that won&#x27;t last the summer.
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qwertox将近 4 年前
Just today I was listening to a German podcast on this topic (&quot;Warum Bauholz zurzeit knapp und teuer ist&quot;) [1]. Main explanation of it having become so expensive in Germany as well is the high demand in the US, China and in Germany itself. Russia has set an export ban on wood, so China is buying more from Germany.<p>Germany currently has a surplus of wood, yet the prices aren&#x27;t low. Sawmills are the main benefactors of the current situation, they&#x27;re processing wood like never before, also because last year a lot of trees were affected by beetles, fungi, storms and the like. So this lower quality wood (which is perfectly fine to use) has been mainly exported. 40% of the processed wood is exported.<p>Sawmills are buying the trees for cheap due to the surplus that the forest owners (around 96% of the owners own less than 20 ha) are saying that they&#x27;re now considering to stop selling wood and wait for the fall or next year if they can handle it.<p>Then again, if they stop selling the wood, the state- or community-owned forest owners (around half of the German forests are privately owned, the other half by the state or communities) might not be able to to pay for the machinery and workers which usually work the entire year around. Also private owners have got together and share machinery and personell which needs to get payed during the entire year. So to some degree they are forced to continue cutting down trees to sell them.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.deutschlandfunk.de&#x2F;probleme-der-baubranche-warum-bauholz-zurzeit-knapp-und.724.de.html?dram:article_id=498705" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.deutschlandfunk.de&#x2F;probleme-der-baubranche-warum...</a>
SavantIdiot将近 4 年前
&quot;Because the storm occurred with very little warning, many factories weren’t able to shut down properly, resulting in polymers congealing and solidifying in the equipment&quot;<p>Wow, I&#x27;m surprised there weren&#x27;t back-up generators if power failure means machine destruction.
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kube-system将近 4 年前
Lumber price soared globally as well, for the same reasons. COVID was a global thing, after all.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.dw.com&#x2F;en&#x2F;demand-for-lumber-soars-in-germany-and-so-do-prices&#x2F;a-57549125" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.dw.com&#x2F;en&#x2F;demand-for-lumber-soars-in-germany-and-s...</a><p>That being said, as the article mentions, most lumber in North America is from <i>Canada</i>, not the US.
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mothsonasloth将近 4 年前
I am in Scotland and we are struggling for all sorts of materials:<p>- PIR insulation<p>- Membranes (DPM, Roof membranes, Vapor check)<p>- External Cladding (red cedar, siberian larch)<p>- Concrete<p>I&#x27;ve had all range of excuses; Covid19, Brexit, Suez Canal and Americans are stealing lumber from Europe.<p>There are some lumber mills in the Highlands of Scotland that are shipping CLS and other framing timber straight to USA.
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cube00将近 4 年前
It was sad to hear the larger construction companies using their buying power to purchase all available stock and store in their warehouses with no assigned jobs. They were pushing smaller construction companies to the wall when they couldn&#x27;t access any stock for jobs they actually had on.
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jjav将近 4 年前
Any good source for a graph tracking lumber prices week to week at the retail shelf (as opposed to futures pricing which is easy to find)?
RickJWagner将近 4 年前
I&#x27;m a wood working hobbyist.<p>I used to pay about $3 for an 8 foot 2x4 at the local big-box &#x2F; lumber store. I looked this week -- $9 for the same lumber!<p>I&#x27;m going to wait for this to blow over before I build anything, I think.
Johnny555将近 4 年前
<i>Compounding these issues was the Texas Ice Storm in February, which knocked out roughly 80% of US polymer production. Because the storm occurred with very little warning, many factories weren’t able to shut down properly, resulting in polymers congealing and solidifying in the equipment.</i><p>I&#x27;m surprised it&#x27;s not cost effective to have backup generators to power critical equipment long enough for a graceful shutdown if an ungraceful shutdown can keep a plant offline for a month or longer.
kevinthew将近 4 年前
Great summary and analysis. The context on the cracker shutdowns in February makes it all the more clear. This processing bottleneck has been playing out across the commodities sphere as the 2nd order impacts from COVID play out.
praptak将近 4 年前
Okay, people stay at home more, so they need more space, so there&#x27;s demand for construction.<p>What about the spaces people used to occupy before covid moved them home? Does it drive demand for demolition?
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ur-whale将近 4 年前
Is this just a US thing or is it global?
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AtlasBarfed将近 4 年前
When will empress tree farming start? it&#x27;s vields are 2-4x the rate of other woods and supposedly is construction usable?
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humbleMouse将近 4 年前
This is old news, lumber futures are around 800 dollars now.
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seaorg将近 4 年前
Take it from a guy who works in the industry. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;zCvEFXSYFS8" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;zCvEFXSYFS8</a>
beebeepka将近 4 年前
&quot;in the US&quot;...<p>This habit if speaking as if one is the center of the universe is a bit tiring
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GeorgeTirebiter将近 4 年前
Why has wood gotten so expensive? It&#x27;s not like this stuff grows on trees! Oh, wait....
RyanGoosling将近 4 年前
Guys, maybe you can help me. Should I buy a house in California in this market? Or will it all crash when the foreclosure ban ends at the end of July???