A lot of interesting hypothesis in this thread. But I’ll offer the simplest, and unfortunately least optimistic: This is simply downstream of the Flynn effect.<p>There were serious gains in IQ between the cohort aging into Alzheimer’s 30 years ago and today. This was mainly due to improvements in childhood nutrition, healthcare, and education in the post war period.<p>It’s well known that Alzheimer’s rates tend to be much lower in the high IQ. Not because the incidence of disease is lower, but because it’s harder to diagnose. John von Neumann would have to experience some serious mental decline before he started failing the standard cognitive batteries.<p>This is less hopeful for two reasons. Number one the disease still exists and is having an effect. It’s still bad if you experience mental decline even if you start at a high baseline. And if life extends far enough, eventually it will get you in a real bad way sooner or later. Number two IQ gains, like height, started seriously after this cohort. So we wouldn’t expect to see continued declines at the same rate.