Military software predicts Greek default

not to be too cynical, but any military, for lack of a better category, "fire-control" software with an 85% success rate probably got that rate through very conservative target selection and heavy-handed audit of results.<p>Full disclosure: I was a Navy Tactical Action Officer, the watchstander with weapons release authority, on an aircraft carrier. It's pretty deeply inculcated to not trust the machine. Is that blind job protectionism or professionally sound paranoia? I don't know.

Easy to scoff and funny too. However, note the input data used by the software..<p><i>A release from the company explained that Senturion analyzed the positions of leading EU officials, private financial institutions and Greek political factions in the week following a critical parliamentary vote at the end of June.</i><p>No balance sheet analysis, just verbiage. Combined with what?

In other news, military software predicts sun to rise tomorrow.

LMAO at the photo caption: "Wherever Senturion is housed it probably looks a lot like this, but more ominous and with blinkier lights."

In theory, every issuer will eventually default. Question is whether it is going to happen within the next 1, 5, 10 or 100 years.<p>What I'd like to know is at least what is their estimated probability of default and the time horizon of this forecast e.g. "There's a X% chance that Greece will default within the next Y months."<p>The CDS-implied probability of default (PD), as of July 8th, is roughly 41% within the next 12 months, 66% within the next 2 years, 93% within the next 5 and 100% within the next 10 years.<p>So yeah, they're very likely to default soon(ish).

I want to know about what this software predicts about whether the US government will default next month...

I stopped reading after glancing at the caption underneath the article's image:<p>"Wherever Senturion is housed it probably looks a lot like this, but more ominous and with blinkier lights."<p>That this statement is less than rigorous doesn't speak well for the remainder of the article.

I wonder if the program was written by the guys behind the Patriot software... <a href="http://sydney.edu.au/engineering/it/~alum/patriot_bug.html" rel="nofollow">http://sydney.edu.au/engineering/it/~alum/patriot_bug.html</a>

&#62; It’s official: Greece is going to default, and there’s nothing anybody can do about it.<p>&#62; That is, if you believe the word of a predictive software program<p>So that's how we define official now?

From the markets point of view, I think the large majority of investors have already assumed its going to happen.

You don't need military software for that. A bit of common sense and a healthy skepticism of what officials try to tell you is enough.<p>They can delay the inevitable, but not save Greece' finances. You don't go out of debt by taking on more debt while selling out your best assets at the same time.

What about "common sense" predicts Greek default?<p>How is that this software do not predicts USA default too? USA is in the same situation that Greece is and those Geniuses continue expending trillions in Irak and Afghanistan.<p>Greece, USA, Japan, UK, Spain, Italy... those countries are going to default one way or another because math is math and the magic of compound interest exponential growing sometimes do not happen. They could use massive inflation or face default, one way or another they are not going to pay what they indebt.

The claims of any firm in the pay of the US military have to be taken with a grain of salt (this may be propaganda to undermine the EU). That being said, the prediction is likely correct.