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Covid: Children's extremely low risk confirmed by study

95 点作者 plank_time将近 4 年前

11 条评论

pessimizer将近 4 年前
The problem is that they give it to old people, not that they rarely die from it. I'm pretty sure people under 70 have an quite moderate risk of dying of covid (as compared to other endemic diseases that don't cause world lockdowns.) The problem is that they give it to old people.
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rossdavidh将近 4 年前
The difference between British and U.S. mainstream news sources, in regards to covid-19, is that you would be a lot less likely to see the NYTimes or Washington Post or etc. run any story with anything resembling positive news. While the BBC, Guardian, etc. can certainly make mistakes, I don't get nearly as strong an impression of a heavy-handed filter on what information I'm being given. With U.S. mainstream news, I very much do.
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jamses将近 4 年前
Article lead: The overall risk of children becoming severely ill or dying from Covid is extremely low, a new analysis of Covid infection data confirms.<p>As far as I can tell the linked report mentions nothing about severity of illness, only mortality.<p>Edit: Second study is linked to further down the page which addresses the severe illnesses, as ricardobeat points out.
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parrellel将近 4 年前
Since there&#x27;ve been studies attributing Covid&#x27;s lung and circulatory damage to bad immune response to the virus, I&#x27;m looking forward to seeing the numbers on juvenile diabetes.<p>Anecdotally, Type 1&#x27;s exploding along with other auto-immune disorders. The problem is, of course, we&#x27;ve got a 6-12 month lag on type 1 diagnosis, and various often long delays on other auto-immune failures.
PragmaticPulp将近 4 年前
We already knew that the mortality rate and hospitalization rate of children was low. Low isn&#x27;t zero, of course, but it&#x27;s lower than that of adults and the elderly.<p>The real question in my mind is the prevalence of Long COVID and other longer lasting changes. Having seen the debilitating effects of post-viral fatigue syndrome (non-COVID, but still very similar) I would caution everyone to do as much as possible to avoid getting illnesses that are known to trigger extended disability like this.<p>A COVID infection isn&#x27;t a binary outcome of live or die. There&#x27;s a lot of potential for lasting damage that isn&#x27;t fully studied yet, so we need to stop treating the statistics as a simple matter of life or death.<p>It&#x27;s also misleading to consider the statistics for children in isolation because children obviously don&#x27;t live alone in isolation. If kids get a contagious illness, the parents are highly likely to get it. This is especially true for younger children, as any parent will tell you.
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_ph_将近 4 年前
That is good news, especially for all the children in those countries, who are opening up with a wave of the delta variant approaching. Combine that with some reluctancy or inability to vaccinate children, it means most of them will get infected.
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hnbad将近 4 年前
Note that this says nothing about long term consequences, i.e. Long Covid, which we&#x27;ve only just started acknowledging when it comes to adults.<p>Polio was asymptomatic in 95% of cases and most of the symptomatic cases were unspecific and mild, but now we know that it can be followed by the much more severe Post-Polio Syndrome even 3-5 decades after the original infection, which may affect almost 30% of all cases, including the asymptomatic ones.<p>That children are unlikely to die or have severe complications from Covid doesn&#x27;t mean it&#x27;s safe to allow children to be infected, even if we ignore that this could make them asymptomatic carriers infecting at-risk family members who may not be able to get vaccinated for health reasons.<p>EDIT: If you find the time to downvote this comment, also check out nojito&#x27;s link to the paper about Long Covid in children: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=27793752" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=27793752</a><p>If the lower estimate of 20% of Covid cases resulting in Long Covid are right and we lift hygiene restrictions for children because of their &quot;low risk&quot; for hospitalization, that means we could see Long Covid in up to 20% of the population under 12 (assuming vaccinations become available for ages 12 and over).<p>And that&#x27;s assuming the data about &quot;low risk&quot; is interpreted correctly. The article states that 25 dead in 12 million children translates to a death rate of 2 per million (or 0.2 in 100,000 if we want to use the same scale used for numbers about the general population) but this wrongly assumes that all of the 12 million children have at some point been Covid positive, which seems impossibly pessimistic given that there have only been 5 million recorded infections in the UK across the entire population.<p>For comparison, the ONS report[1] estimates roughly 1% of children between age 2 and school year 6 (age 10-11) having been positive with no data on ages younger than 2. This would take the number from 0.2 in 100,000 to 20 in 100,000 -- compared to the total mortality of 228.6 in 100,000[2].<p>In other words, it looks like children are only 1&#x2F;10 as likely to die as adults, not 1&#x2F;1000 as likely.<p>Also, the article only considers the 25 children who directly died from Covid, not the 36 children who were tested positive but died from &quot;other causes&quot;. I&#x27;m not sure if this has changed in the UK given that you often read about &quot;deaths within 28 days of a positive test&quot; now, but at least for most of 2020 these 36 children would have counted towards the total death count as I understand it. If we compare the 20 in 100,000 (or 20.8 in 100,000 if we want to be pedantic about rounding) number to the &quot;deaths within 28 days of a positive test&quot; number we actually get slightly more than 1&#x2F;10 because that rate is 192.2 in 100,000.<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ons.gov.uk&#x2F;peoplepopulationandcommunity&#x2F;healthandsocialcare&#x2F;conditionsanddiseases&#x2F;bulletins&#x2F;coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot&#x2F;latest" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ons.gov.uk&#x2F;peoplepopulationandcommunity&#x2F;healthan...</a><p>[2]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;coronavirus.data.gov.uk&#x2F;details&#x2F;deaths" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;coronavirus.data.gov.uk&#x2F;details&#x2F;deaths</a>
throwaway1_1将近 4 年前
Knowing this, why are we so willing to risk our children&#x27;s safety by injecting them with emergency-authorized vaccines? When we know that it&#x27;s not about helping them at all. Whatever happened to protect the children?
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foobarbazetc将近 4 年前
I&#x27;ve seen 4 other studies that say the exact opposite.
f38zf5vdt将近 4 年前
We&#x27;ve known this since the beginning of the pandemic. The danger with children is them spreading with mild or asymptomatic disease in academic settings, not them succumbing to it.
nojito将近 4 年前
As with everything...the real story more complicated than that.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;34102037&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;34102037&#x2F;</a>