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Can we survive technology? (1955) [pdf]

168 点作者 georgestrakhov将近 4 年前

13 条评论

metaprogram将近 4 年前
Prophetic words from John von Neumann in 1955:<p><i>&quot;The carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by industry&#x27;s burning of coal and oil-—more than half of it during the last generation—may have changed the atmosphere&#x27;s composition sufficiently to account for a general warming of the world by about one degree Fahrenheit.&quot;</i> (Page 512 &#x2F; 666 &#x2F; 9)
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ArtWomb将近 4 年前
The one theme many of the prognosticators of the post Cold War boom failed to see was the democratization of tech. &quot;A computer on every desk&quot; has become an internet node in every pocket. Part of the fear wasn&#x27;t just of a high priesthood that controlled knowledge, language and thought itself as everyday work and modern life became more machine-like. But of a New Religion: where Science becomes the last true God.<p>One measure of the progress of a civilization is efficiency with which ideas can be communicated. And the crux of what von Neumann perceives as danger is &quot;runaway&quot; technology. We attempt to solve one problem, like controlling the weather, by introducing remedies according to our current state of the art capabilities. And accidentally introduce cataclysms that cannot be reversed.<p>Now that capability is accelerating, the same fears arise anew. But it&#x27;s a different world today. Tech is not developed in secret large scale government run labs of yore. Its too pricey. The culture has shifted as well. From ICBMs to private space enterprises. And it&#x27;s that cultural feedback loop, that civilizing progress as ideas are shared instantly about the globe, that very few were able to foresee.
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dsign将近 4 年前
I have a huge respect for this guy, but the irony of this is not lost on me:<p>&gt; Since most time scales are fixed by human re- action times, habits, and other physiological and psycho- logical factors, the effect of the increased speed of technological processes was to enlarge the size of units— political, organizational, economic, and cultural — affected by technological operations. That is, instead of performing the same operations as before in less time, now larger-scale operations were performed in the same time.<p>We call von Neumann architectures to the very devices that have allowed to operate--by proxy, so far--in different timescales. And we do tons of stuff these days in less time, thanks in part to von Neumann.<p>Had he lived today, I would imagine he would be still concerned with timescales and sizes of physical places, but from an entirely different perspective.
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est31将近 4 年前
I wonder how long we&#x27;ll go without another nuclear explosion used in war. I think the armageddon scenario is quite unlikely, simply because so few people have access to the needed amount of nukes to pull it off. It&#x27;s only a couple of states which can do it. One of those states even survived a regime change without those nukes being triggered. However, there has been a trend of smaller states obtaining nuclear weapon capabilities. The more states you have, the more likely it is that one of them is willing to use the bomb.<p>So I think rather talking about <i>whether</i> these small states will use nukes, we should talk about <i>when</i> this will happen. 30 years? 50? 100? 500?
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eternalban将近 4 年前
The actual question is can we survive technologists and their paymasters.<p>It is interesting the JvN starts off on a political-economy note and proceeds to geopolitics considerations, yet doesn&#x27;t really address the drivers of &quot;industrial revolution&quot; or &quot;empire&quot;. He opines that &quot;[a] much more satisfactory solution than technological prohibition would be eliminating war as &quot;a means of national policy.&quot;&quot;<p>There are alternatives, John. Maybe we should work on technology to temper the desire -- construed as &quot;divine right&quot; -- of the few to lord it over the many. That&#x27;s one alternative. War is rarely a &quot;national&quot; concern. Historically it is the means employed by &quot;princes&quot; and &quot;kings&quot; and &quot;queens&quot; to assert dominance over other egomaniacs. &quot;Technology&quot; of course is used to whip up the masses to serve as canon fodder.<p>Another alternative is developing robust ethical systems that drill into the heads of budding technologists that their humanity is not worth a paycheck.
dang将近 4 年前
One past thread:<p><i>Can we survive technology? (1955) [pdf]</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=20724363" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=20724363</a> - Aug 2019 (48 comments)
MichaelZuo将近 4 年前
A very interesting conundrum, as human reaction times, and the size of the Earth, are unchanged, and are very likely to remain fixed, human polities can only progress towards further destabilization as population and destructive power grows.<p>The implication then is of progression from countries to blocs, from blocs to super-blocs, from super-blocs to an inevitable world state when the use, and potential use, of weapons becomes too great for even a continent size union to bear or credibly defend against.
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miltondts将近 4 年前
&quot;Can we produce the required adjustments with the necessary speed? The most hopeful answer is that the human species has been subjected to similar tests before and seems to have a congenital ability to come through, after varying amounts of trouble. To ask in advance for a complete recipe would be unreasonable. We can specify only the human qualities required: patience, flexibility, intelligence.&quot;<p>If you want to read a better exploration of the larger issues and possible answers to this question I recommend: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;gator.uhd.edu&#x2F;~williams&#x2F;downloads&#x2F;skinner82.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;gator.uhd.edu&#x2F;~williams&#x2F;downloads&#x2F;skinner82.pdf</a><p>&quot;Most thoughtful people agree that the world is in serious trouble. A nuclear war could mean a nuclear winter that would destroy all living things; fossil fuels will not last forever, and many other critical resources are nearing exhaustion; the earth grows steadily less habitable; and all this is exacerbated by a burgeoning population that resists control. The timetable may not be clear, but the threat is real. That many people have begun to find a recital of these dangers tiresome is perhaps an even greater threat.<p>Why is more not being done? Within a single generation, we have made extraordinary progress in the exploration of space, genetic engineering, electronic technology, and many other fields, but little has been done to solve what are certainly more serious problems. We know what could be done: We could destroy all nuclear weapons, limit family size, and adopt a much less polluting and less wasteful style of life. The mere listing of these steps is enough to show how far we are from taking them.&quot;
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TeeMassive将近 4 年前
Once men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.&quot;. ― Frank Herbert, Dune
ChrisArchitect将近 4 年前
Further discussion:<p><i>2 years ago</i> <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=20724363" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=20724363</a>
spodek将近 4 年前
Regarding the environment and humans decreasing the Earth&#x27;s ability to sustain life, the tech community doesn&#x27;t seem to pick up on the pattern that technology augments the users&#x27; goals and values. As long as our culture values growth, extraction, externalizing costs, comfort, and convenience, technology that makes that system more efficient may decrease pollution in <i>one element</i>, but it makes <i>the system</i> more efficient. That is, we pollute and decrease Earth&#x27;s ability to sustain life more efficiently.<p>When Watt made his steam engine, coal use went up. Uber was supposed to lower congestion and miles driven but they went up. We repeat the pattern over and over. The &quot;father&quot; of the Green Revolution, on winning the Nobel Prize said<p>&gt; <i>&quot;The green revolution has won a temporary success in man’s war against hunger and deprivation; it has given man a breathing space. If fully implemented, the revolution can provide sufficient food for sustenance during the next three decades. But the frightening power of human reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the green revolution will be ephemeral only.</i><p>&gt; <i>Most people still fail to comprehend the magnitude and menace of the “Population Monster”. . . Since man is potentially a rational being, however, I am confident that within the next two decades he will recognize the self-destructive course he steers along the road of irresponsible population growth…&quot;</i><p>He understood the value of technology as well as anyone in theory and practice. He recognized that we have to change our values from growth to enjoying what we have, from externalizing costs to responsibility, and so on or technology will keep exacerbating and augmenting our problems. That pattern includes nuclear, electric vehicles, and space travel. They may solve <i>local</i> problems, but they exacerbate the <i>systemic</i> effect. Electric vehicles, for example, make sense as a tactic under the strategy of reducing vehicles. Nuclear makes sense only as a tactic under the strategy of lowering power consumption. But we keep valuing producing more cars and energy.<p>This community seems over and over again to miss the systemic and unintended side effects. If we had clean fusion under our current values, we wouldn&#x27;t live as we do today only cleaner. We would grow again until we hit more limits and had to live again under scarcity or natural calamity. Borlaug worked the second half his career to help people see the consequences of helping solve only part of our system but not the system.<p>If we have to stop growing at some point, at least acknowledging the laws of thermodynamics, the sooner we do it, with the smaller number of people, the more abundance we can live with. The more people we have, the harder to limit ourselves. If we don&#x27;t, nature will, as we all know.
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mudlus将近 4 年前
Trash that will age as poorly, as long as people keep solving problems. There is no perpetual motion machine, so the answer to this shitty rhetorical question is: We die when we stop making new technology. Welcome to the beginning of Infinity.
beckingz将近 4 年前
&quot;Nothing human makes it out of the near-future&quot; - Nick Land