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We’d rather have the iceberg than the ship

346 点作者 oftenwrong将近 4 年前

28 条评论

godot将近 4 年前
I agree with the author that the real estate agent described something most people want, and not necessarily what the author himself wanted. I think it&#x27;s unfortunate that the agent didn&#x27;t hear what the author wanted and just pointed him to the general public&#x27;s preference anyway.<p>However, I disagree with his take that America&#x27;s housing development model is to develop into outskirt suburbs, let middle class move in, let it deteriorate in 30 years, and build more outskirts.<p>Now, maybe I live in California and things are different. In the bay area even old areas with very old houses rise in values, and in fact, they rise more than newer developments. Demand for housing everywhere in the bay area + surrounding areas are high regardless of how new they are and how deep in town or out in the outskirts they are. Areas developed 30+ years ago continue to have high demand from middle to wealthy families. These areas didn&#x27;t just not deteriorate but have grown into larger and more modern areas and in some cases developed their own downtown.<p>Admittedly California and bay area specifically is probably a bubble and behaves differently than much of America. But I have a feeling more than a few popular cities are going through something similar. Appleton might not be, and maybe he&#x27;s right that the new development outskirts will deteriorate in 30 years, but I doubt that&#x27;ll be the case in new developments around Phoenix or Denver.
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howmayiannoyyou将近 4 年前
| All of America’s institutions are focused exclusively on churn.<p>Planning prior to 1990s was predicated on the assumption of continued upward mobility, middle class persistence and strength of US production of goods and services (a&#x2F;k&#x2F;a wealth).<p>Instead, the US exported all of that to China, and praised its new service-led, consumer-based, greener economy. Of all the self-inflicted (likely fatal) wounds inflicted upon great societies throughout history, the civic ignorance (and arrogance) of our body politic is the greatest.
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AlanYx将近 4 年前
Can anyone explain the &quot;We’d rather have the iceberg than the ship&quot; expression? I understand the overall point of the article, but I&#x27;m having trouble parsing the last paragraph, where he seems to assume that one reading of that expression is somehow obvious. Is it the ship that&#x27;s ephemeral, or the iceberg? (It seems like a reference to the Titanic, and at least in my mind, both the Titanic and the iceberg were ephemeral.)
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D13Fd将近 4 年前
&gt; All of America’s institutions are focused exclusively on churn. Crank out new stuff, sell it fast, cash out, and move on to the next project. Blighted neighborhoods aren’t an accident. They’re baked in to every facet of how we do everything.<p>I&#x27;m surprised there isn&#x27;t more pushback here about the author&#x27;s central premise, which is very flawed in my view.<p>I&#x27;ve never found what he is saying to be true at all, even in the real estate market. I live in a 40-year-old house that I bought 5 years ago, and its value has only increased. Before that I lived in another 40-year-old house in a thriving and busy market. Some of the most expensive places to live in my area date to the 1930&#x27;s-1960&#x27;s - I know, because my realtor showed them to me last time we moved.<p>The author states that this is some kind of universal truth about America, but it&#x27;s not.
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urthor将近 4 年前
As a non-American... this model is crazy in my mind.<p>How&#x2F;why do you not promote the growth of denser, middle class inner city neighborhoods with a diverse profile? Is there a positive reason to not encourage it?<p>Is it entirely driven by the fact that local taxes decline on the outskirts? If local taxes were done at a uniform rate statewide, would it helps? Building standards which means construction of &quot;depreciation homes&quot; is not viable, and owners have to build for 100 years in greenfields?
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jimmaswell将近 4 年前
If these downtown areas were suddenly cleaned up, packed full of operating businesses, and had bicycle lanes and everything added overnight, would any customers even show up? I&#x27;m not sure how much demand there even is for such a thing outside the online urban development enthusiast crowd.<p>I got a sense that the &quot;themed strip mall&quot; was put forward with derision but I think people are increasingly going to need more of an incentive to go to these kinds of areas beyond shopping. A historically preserved area that&#x27;s neat to look at with educational placards&#x2F;statues, a nice waterfront, an amusement park, really good food, some reason to make the trip. Otherwise personally I&#x27;ll just order something online or go to a big box store.
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trevin将近 4 年前
A tangent: Granola Shotgun is one of my favorite blogs and Johnny has a unique viewpoint on many issues like urbanism, homesteads, town planning, etc. A quote from him that summarizes his writing to me: &quot;So this is what America is actually like. The good, the bad, and the ugly. Look out your window. Take a drive down to your local big box store. Walk around your neighborhood. This is reality. Just sayin’.&quot;<p>I have little specific interest in these topics but love his storytelling and detailed posts.<p>A few of my all-time favorites he has written:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.strongtowns.org&#x2F;journal&#x2F;2020&#x2F;7&#x2F;26&#x2F;not-for-camera-view" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.strongtowns.org&#x2F;journal&#x2F;2020&#x2F;7&#x2F;26&#x2F;not-for-camera...</a> <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;granolashotgun.wordpress.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;07&#x2F;22&#x2F;the-show-horse-and-the-work-horse&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;granolashotgun.wordpress.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;07&#x2F;22&#x2F;the-show-hor...</a> <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;granolashotgun.wordpress.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;06&#x2F;03&#x2F;levittown&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;granolashotgun.wordpress.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;06&#x2F;03&#x2F;levittown&#x2F;</a>
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brandonhorst将近 4 年前
Off topic, but looking through the comments, so many people seem to believe that any multi-family housing is noisy. That has literally never been my experience despite living exclusively in multi-family housing for the past 15 years. Sometimes I can hear my neighbor&#x27;s kid when they&#x27;re directly outside my front door. That&#x27;s it.<p>Have the folks who think that apartments are noisy just never lived in apartment? Or is my experience the skewed one?
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hef19898将近 4 年前
Looking at those older houses, I would rather have on of those than a soleless suburban cardboard home. But then I never buy stuff with an eye on resell value, I am not a broker or trader after all.
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simonebrunozzi将近 4 年前
Great post, and agree with pretty much everything.<p>Solutions? It&#x27;s going to be hard, for sure, to find anything.<p>Maybe:<p>1) Move to Italy, or equivalent (I&#x27;m in Italy at the moment and I&#x27;m Italian, so why not some free advertising for my own nice country?). Not in a big city, but pick a small town. E.g. Montalcino, in Tuscany, is home of the best Brunello wine, amazing food, lots of history, etc, and they&#x27;re bringing fiber internet to every home as we speak (yes, I saw the temporary cables this morning, running from one place to another. The entire town will have high speed internet in a few weeks).<p>2) Build a new city. I&#x27;ve dreamed about doing this for the past ~30 years or so. I think I know how a city like this should be, and it would be a mix of something like Montalcino, and something like the modern world. But I have failed to find a way to do it that doesn&#x27;t require having a few Billion dollars of disposable money.<p>3) ??
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sunshineforever将近 4 年前
I can&#x27;t describe now baldly I&#x27;d love to live above that former Chinese restaurant and operate some kind of eclectic low effort business out of the front. For only the price of one of those gaudy new pickups.
mapt将近 4 年前
Recommended watching on the channel &#x27;Not Just Bikes&#x27;:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=7IsMeKl-Sv0" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=7IsMeKl-Sv0</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=XfQUOHlAocY" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=XfQUOHlAocY</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=uxykI30fS54" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=uxykI30fS54</a>
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baxtr将近 4 年前
<i>“These older places (the homes being built today) will then be populated by lower class people with fewer resources and less status thereby reinforcing the perception that it’s best to move on if at all possible. These are fungible, forgettable, disposable places that rapidly age and are then left to quietly decay.“</i>
giantrobot将近 4 年前
Sort of an aside: this reminds me of a presentation I saw years ago by an architect(?) talking about architectural anti-patterns. My favorite comment was how planters are added around buildings as an afterthought as &quot;green band aids&quot;.<p>Unfortunately for me I have no idea who the presenter was nor the venue. It was maybe a TED Talk but this was back when YouTube&#x27;s only content was ripped off Newgrounds animations and clips from The Daily Show. It must have been over ten years ago because the Iraq war was mentioned as being a contemporaneous event. I&#x27;d love it if someone knows the presentation I&#x27;m talking about.<p>I think a lot of the points (as I remember them) are germane to this article.
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Pxtl将近 4 年前
I&#x27;ll never understand it. If you look at the places that suburbanites <i>visit</i> - the vacations they take, none of those places look like the ones they live in. Paris. Manhattan. Smaller locations like Niagara Falls still represents a level of age and density far beyond suburbia.<p>Heck, even Vegas represents a level of density when you think about the fact that nobody&#x27;s visiting the sprawl.<p>It&#x27;s like we know what nice places look and feel like, but choose to build the exact opposite because of parking convenience.
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bb101将近 4 年前
For anyone interested in these topics and how they developed, James Howard Kunstler&#x27;s Geography of Nowhere [1] is an informative, if sad, read.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.goodreads.com&#x2F;book&#x2F;show&#x2F;125313.The_Geography_of_Nowhere" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.goodreads.com&#x2F;book&#x2F;show&#x2F;125313.The_Geography_of_...</a>
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andrew_将近 4 年前
That was a really good read. I see this happening all over the Tampa Bay area. But I also see the opposite, where once-blighted structures are transformed into beautiful establishments. Grand Cathedral Cigars [1] is one I like to mention, as I have close ties to the area that&#x27;s been an extremely high crime area for decades. It&#x27;s turned around quite a bit recently, and seemingly abandoned structures like the old church which Grand Cathedral occupies, are being repurposed rather than torn asunder. There&#x27;s a running joke about &quot;up and coming neighborhoods&quot; in the Tampa Bay area, but there is visible progress and fewer parking lots being created in place of structure.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;grandcathedralcigars.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;grandcathedralcigars.com&#x2F;</a>
nine_zeros将近 4 年前
Why don&#x27;t American cities redevelop older houses?<p>New England (except some posh suburbs) is filled with old rotting wooden houses. Fit for the 19th century but today they just look like slummy creaky shacks.<p>Just why wouldn&#x27;t the cities raze old houses to build new ones?
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m3kw9将近 4 年前
This is a similar trend if you were in the metro, except things change right at the spot. Small towns change at a different scale. But I’m not so sure towns get abandoned like that regularly unless it was mismanaged by the economic development centres.
debrice将近 4 年前
Would making illegal to discount taxes a solution? It seems that businesses jump on the next tax discount according to this article.
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SrslyJosh将近 4 年前
&gt; As proof of its bright future they also mentioned Amazon is building a giant fulfillment center out by the airport.<p>Who&#x27;s gonna tell them?
samlevine将近 4 年前
&gt; I realized the truth of the Appleton model. Thirty years from now all the new homes she’s selling will slip into the “old” category and will gradually fester as taxes rise and the middle class migrates to new greenfield developments.<p>This is possible, but a lot of suburbs are old and quite successful.<p>Bellevue and Redmond come to mind just from where I live but there are lots of places in America where the periphery is long lived and maintained.
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brailsafe将近 4 年前
Not Just Bikes is a great YouTube channel that discusses this repulsive suburban decay and covers a lot of Strong Towns material as well. It&#x27;s a very upsetting pattern that strips towns of the feeling of community you only really get with walkable and enjoyable neighbourhoods.<p>These are very much similar between the U.S and Canada, the only difference in my mind being the impression I get from this quote<p>&gt; So here’s the big picture. All of America’s institutions are focused exclusively on churn. Crank out new stuff, sell it fast, cash out, and move on to the next project. Blighted neighborhoods aren’t an accident. They’re baked in to every facet of how we do everything.<p>It&#x27;s my impression that this has wormed it&#x27;s way into other facets of U.S capitalistic culture. Visiting for the first time, every sign in the airport seemed to be shouting at me &quot;BUY BUY BUY&quot; &quot;BURGERS CHICKEN TACOS IPADS GUNS&quot; etc.. as if I wasn&#x27;t expected to come back. Massive absurd super Walmarts, Super Targets,(I thought &quot;Super&quot; was just a colloquialism until I saw that in fact they literally have&#x2F;had it in the name) places to gain as much weight as possible and then lose it instantly with this one easy trick. It was the first time I saw a living blob of a person literally just vibrating on a chair in the damn airport. Not that I have anything against overweight people, but it&#x27;s symbolic of a level of pure hedonism I&#x27;m uncomfortable with. Everything&#x27;s cheaper and bigger and awful. Not that Canada doesn&#x27;t have some elements of this, but it&#x27;s a much much smaller scale of crazy. The cities though are a similar hellscape, with just a few nice walkable exceptions.
aeturnum将近 4 年前
Time to once again post my favorite TED talk &quot;the ghastly tragedy of the Suburbs&quot;: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ted.com&#x2F;talks&#x2F;james_howard_kunstler_the_ghastly_tragedy_of_the_suburbs&#x2F;transcript?language=en" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ted.com&#x2F;talks&#x2F;james_howard_kunstler_the_ghastly_...</a>
JeremyNT将近 4 年前
This is a monumental issue in how American cities develop.<p>I&#x27;m from the south and am currently moving from one southern city (Durham - which is near Raleigh - NC) to another (Nashville, TN) and it&#x27;s depressing to see how both places keep making the same mistakes (Nashville is maybe 20 years further down the road to failure than Raleigh, though).<p>What are those mistakes? Designing all these unwalkable neighborhoods filled with single family dwellings with no cross streets or any retail corridors, then cramming them in along &quot;strips&quot; that connect them to the Old City and accumulate strip malls (eventually, holding so much traffic that they are a nightmare to navigate).<p>So what you end up with, is the Old City has an actual grid of sorts, with cross streets and some walkability, with commercial near residential, and feels vibrant. But most people simply can&#x27;t afford those areas, because they&#x27;re so desirable for the people who recognize the value of this.<p>Since the old areas are so expensive, most people have to buy into one of the aforementioned crappy new neighborhoods, and suffer all the subtle ill effects of being isolated from most other humans by walls of traffic. When individual developers buy these massive swathes of land in (formerly) rural areas, they optimize for the short term profit they can make from selling the new homes, and nothing else.<p>As more of those crappy neighborhoods pile up, the traffic gets worse, and getting to&#x2F;from the core parts of town becomes more and more painful. In this respect Raleigh fares better better, but only because rather than having one city center, the Raleigh area has many (Chapel Hill, Raleigh, Durham, and various other small towns). The web of sprawl grows between these places, but in each core is a small grid with retail, which means that as the megalopolis fills in all the gaps (rather than growing outward in ever increasing circles from a single center point) people can remain close to something attractive.<p>One big issue is that the cookie-cutter neighborhoods have no grid system that connects to their surroundings, and instead there&#x27;s just limited ingress&#x2F;egress from the neighborhood onto the main strips. The developers don&#x27;t own adjacent corridors, so there is no short term incentive to connect to them. This creates vast areas where no retail could ever exist, because they&#x27;re along dead-end cul-de-sacs which &quot;belong&quot; to individual neighborhoods.<p>I don&#x27;t really know what the solution is. I don&#x27;t really think humans want to live in these places, but there are no incentives to do better for builders, and real estate is treated as a valuable commodity, so here we are. In the south, where rural land is cheap, it all feels depressingly inevitable.<p>I&#x27;d love to see a counterpoint of a city (especially a Southern city, in a red state) that has taken a different approach to development, which has managed to prioritize connectivity and walkability in a successful manner.
ramoz将近 4 年前
The authors point on churn hits me. Business&#x2F;Tech
minikites将近 4 年前
&gt;But aside from the fact that I didn’t care for any of these homes and was never going to buy in these locations, I realized the truth of the Appleton model. Thirty years from now all the new homes she’s selling will slip into the “old” category and will gradually fester as taxes rise and the middle class migrates to new greenfield developments.<p>Capitalism consumes limited resources (land) for temporary gains (poorly built structures that nobody wants after just one generation). This is not a sustainable model to build a strong society.
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hackeraccount将近 4 年前
This is probably off tangent but who shops for a home like this? My wife and I are looking right now and we told our agent what we want and then proceeded to spend time on Redfin trying to find a house. We find something we want and then ask our agent to get us inside of it.<p>Our agent has suggested a couple of places but she&#x27;s also had us point out 4 or 5 that we were specifically interested in and - she works in the area that we&#x27;re looking in.<p>I can understand that the beginning with an inexperienced buyer being told &quot;how it is&quot; by the experienced agent might be a hook but instead it makes me think the buyer is a bit of a flake. Sorry if that&#x27;s mean but honestly that&#x27;s what I thought.