TE
科技回声
首页24小时热榜最新最佳问答展示工作
GitHubTwitter
首页

科技回声

基于 Next.js 构建的科技新闻平台,提供全球科技新闻和讨论内容。

GitHubTwitter

首页

首页最新最佳问答展示工作

资源链接

HackerNews API原版 HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 科技回声. 版权所有。

The impact of Covid-19 NPIs on the future dynamics of endemic infections

2 点作者 AndrewBissell将近 4 年前

1 comment

criticaltinker将近 4 年前
&gt; Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases.<p>&gt; we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza<p>&gt; Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period.<p>&gt; We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021–2022.<p>&gt; Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality<p>I&#x27;ve been discussing this with friends and family since early 2020 - the lockdowns, masking, extreme sanitization - these actions have complex second &amp; third order consequences that may actually end up weakening our immune systems.<p>I&#x27;ve been predicting that this winter or next will be very bad in terms of influenza - not because I can see the future, but because these patterns are everywhere in modern society. From preventing naturally occurring forest fires, to people sitting in chairs all day - sometimes what is comfortable now will result in even more discomfort later.<p>Perhaps the most important takeaway from this paper - it will be critical to prepare for this phenomenon to prevent the over-utilization of healthcare facilities across the globe. I don&#x27;t see how anyone could argue for longer and more intense NPIs if we begin to see this play out.