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Summer 2021 has changed our understanding of extreme weather

118 点作者 heldsteel7将近 4 年前

11 条评论

tuatoru将近 4 年前
&gt; Some scientists are beginning to worry they might have underestimated how quickly the climate will change. Or have we just misunderstood extreme weather events and how our warming climate will influence them?<p>James Hansen pointed out long ago (eight years? more?) that the variance of the PDF of temperature difference from climatological average increases, not just the central location.<p>(In layman&#x27;s terms: not only is the bell-shaped curve shifting over to the right, it&#x27;s also getting squashed down flatter and wider.)<p>So you don&#x27;t just get proportionately more extreme weather events: you get a lot more than that. As well as many, many more extreme heat-related events, we can expect to see extreme <i>cold</i> events at a similar rate as in the past (or perhaps slightly more of them). Like Texas&#x27;s this year.<p>I think this point is not widely appreciated.
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existony将近 4 年前
&gt; More research across disciplines is needed<p>Lack of research is not the bottleneck here. Having worked with a Canadian environmental non-profit on ecological impact assessment (how are natural events interconnected, how effective are our environmental efforts), the problem of natural disaster prevention is moreso a problem of political and economic will than actual science&#x2F;modelling&#x2F;data.<p>For example, there are obvious things you can do to reduce flash flooding and wildfire risk and damage, but government&#x2F;taxpayers&#x2F;corporations are often unwilling to take these measures since they:<p>- are expensive, though eventually more than make up their worth in disasters averted and scale of disaster reduced<p>- are not immediate fixes, since they usually involve restoring ecological health i.e. forests, rivers, ecosystems<p>- are not guaranteed to prevent disasters - only reduce their occurrence and severity<p>- generally involve reducing the &quot;development&quot; (sprawl) of cities and the &quot;productivity&quot; (unsustainable practices) of big farms<p>I hope this summer increases environmental disaster prevention budgets everywhere. May the Ministry of the Future wet bulb event never happen.
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ozzythecat将近 4 年前
&gt; There have been serious floods in China and western Europe, heatwaves and drought in North America and wildfires in the sub-Arctic.<p>The remainder of the article never considers any region or country not mentioned in that statement.<p>What about African nations? How about Southeast Asian countries such as Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh? How about the former Soviet satellite countries?<p>There are plenty of countries where the entire population doesn’t have full access to electricity. Air conditioning is a luxury, and central air is unheard of.<p>Not to sound all doom and gloom, but I’m concerned about mass migrations from the developing world, which politicians will use to instigate fear of foreigners and further divide people.<p>Will the nations who are the largest contributors to climate change pick up the bill? Unlikely.
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f6v将近 4 年前
I’ve engaged in a discussion recently where a guy told me:<p>- Climate modeling doesn’t make sense since science can’t even predict next-day weather<p>- More CO2 is good for plants<p>- He doesn’t care about scientific papers on climate change because he can’t comprehend them. But he thinks they’re wrong anyway.<p>- There’s a guy on YouTube who says climate change isn’t real<p>What grinds my gears is that so many people think they can reason about complex systems based on their gut feeling. And their gut tells them: “If it’s getting warmer, why is it snowing in Texas?!”
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chippytea将近 4 年前
This article seems to rely heavily on single points of data. For example weather in the UK or wildfires in the sub-Arctic. This is no better than saying &quot;If it is getting warmer why did it snow in Texas&quot; and not a good way to construct an argument against climate change sceptics.<p>For example here in Eastern Europe I have been very happy with the weather. There were some heat waves like usual but also quite a lot of rain. Normally grass and plants are scorched to death but this year everything is green and growning.
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toiletaccount将近 4 年前
I can&#x27;t help but think that 2021 is going to be the year a lot of people look back at as the turning point from where global warming was somebody else&#x27;s problem to their problem.
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meristohm将近 4 年前
Please, when you read about climate change, let care and compassion for other lives guide your actions. The path of selfishness and fear (the mind-killer) is easier, but I doubt you’ll ultimately thank yourself for taking it.<p>It’s less what any one of us does than what we do together. Considering where we’ll be in ten thousand years helps guide my actions.<p>Enforceable regulations seem useful. How do we adjust culture to accept and support this without feeling like we’re living in a deeper dystopia?
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Zababa将近 4 年前
The more I see article about this and read about climate change, the more I seem to become sympathetic to climate change deniers, alternative theories and things like that. I wonder if I&#x27;m the only one? My theory is that since I can&#x27;t do much about this, my brain tries to change my understanding of the world so it fits better with how I feel. At least I&#x27;m conscious of it. If I&#x27;m not the only one affected by this, maybe constantly pushing news like this is making the problem worse?
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lmilcin将近 4 年前
I don&#x27;t know.<p>It kinda seems to me that most who were conscious of global warming new it is not just linear temperature shift.<p>Some of our weather patterns are precisely tuned. So are various other phenomena like oceanic currents.
pseudo0将近 4 年前
The lack of any attempt to quantify this trend in the article is rather frustrating. The closest I can find with a quick bit of Googling is a modest downward trend of insurance claims from extreme weather events as a percentage of global GDP [0], [1]. This seems rather counterintuitive, but I guess we&#x27;ve been getting richer slightly faster than the weather has gotten worse? That and the data ends in 2019.<p>[0] - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.forbes.com&#x2F;sites&#x2F;rogerpielke&#x2F;2019&#x2F;10&#x2F;31&#x2F;surprising-good-news-on-the-economic-costs-of-disasters&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.forbes.com&#x2F;sites&#x2F;rogerpielke&#x2F;2019&#x2F;10&#x2F;31&#x2F;surprisi...</a><p>[1] - (paywalled paper) <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tandfonline.com&#x2F;doi&#x2F;figure&#x2F;10.1080&#x2F;17477891.2018.1540343?scroll=top&amp;needAccess=true" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tandfonline.com&#x2F;doi&#x2F;figure&#x2F;10.1080&#x2F;17477891.2018...</a>
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interactivecode将近 4 年前
I learned a couple years ago that in most climate models clouds aren&#x27;t included or aren&#x27;t accurately modeled because they are too complex. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.carbonbrief.org&#x2F;cooling-effect-of-clouds-underestimated-by-climate-models-says-new-study" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.carbonbrief.org&#x2F;cooling-effect-of-clouds-underes...</a><p>Clouds impact weather and climate a lot. like really a lot
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