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Guide to cognitive biases

198 点作者 sonnyp将近 4 年前

12 条评论

Uehreka将近 4 年前
When I see someone on Facebook/Twitter link to a site like this to demonstrate that the person they’re arguing with is “doing a fallacy”, I just accuse them of Appeal To Authority. I feel like these kinds of sites are often just used to shut someone down by saying that they’re doing something wrong, without actually going through the work of following through with why the “fallacy” makes their argument weak. Also, in my experience fallacies/biases are often more indicative of a weak argument than a wrong one.
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eloeffler将近 4 年前
There is also a very poster-suited svg over at wikipedia that categorizes cognitive biases: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;upload.wikimedia.org&#x2F;wikipedia&#x2F;commons&#x2F;6&#x2F;65&#x2F;Cognitive_bias_codex_en.svg" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;upload.wikimedia.org&#x2F;wikipedia&#x2F;commons&#x2F;6&#x2F;65&#x2F;Cognitiv...</a><p>(There are also hyperlinks to the corresponding wikipedia pages)
dougSF70将近 4 年前
As Richard Feynman said: The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.<p>Most cognitive biases are effective ways of fooling your self.
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wombatmobile将近 4 年前
Why are there so many of these cognitive biases? Can we infer they persist widely because they confer some benefit?
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throwaway98797将近 4 年前
What’s the use of this really?<p>Many of these are used as ammunition for arguments vs. clarifing reasoning.
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djoldman将近 4 年前
&gt; Cognitive biases refer to the identifiable and indexable errors that are found in our judgment in a predictable and systematic way.<p>Ok.<p>Clicking through to the first one:<p>&gt; The Barnum effect is a cognitive bias that induces an individual to accept a vague description of personality traits as applying specifically to themselves.<p>Then they give an example story of something reading like a horoscope.<p>The story could reasonably describe a large swath of people so I fail to understand how this is an &quot;error&quot; on the part of someone thinking that it describes them.
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wombatmobile将近 4 年前
Is there somewhere a guide for preventing and&#x2F;or overcoming these cognitive biases?
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nrjames将近 4 年前
Similar sites that are a good reference:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;yourbias.is" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;yourbias.is</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;yourlogicalfallacyis.com" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;yourlogicalfallacyis.com</a>
nodejs_rulez_1将近 4 年前
Apex Fallacy is not listed again:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.urbandictionary.com&#x2F;define.php?term=Apex%20Fallacy" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.urbandictionary.com&#x2F;define.php?term=Apex%20Falla...</a>
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db_admin将近 4 年前
While i do not see the immediate use for me personally beyond being an interesting read, i must confess that this is a great domain name.
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phtrivier将近 4 年前
The page dedicated to COVID-19 [1] is probably the most depressing thing I read today (and I read twitter.)<p>Also, among the generaly sane page, there is this bit:<p>&gt; Conspiracy theories regarding the COVID-19 pandemic are plentiful and varied. One of them suggests that the authorities declared a health emergency in order to force the population to accept a vaccine that they do not need, in order to promote the economic domination of the pharmaceutical industry. Several types of information can be presented in support of this theory, such as proposals for alternative treatments to COVID-19, some data taken out of context from vaccine approval protocols, or annual death rates from seasonal influenza.<p>&gt; While this information may hold some veracity, it is not sufficient to support the conspiracy theory put forward when compared to scientific studies carried out by both the pharmaceutical industry and public health authorities.<p>Hardly playing the Devil&#x27;s advocate, this is the crux of the problem : once you&#x27;re sincerely convinced that scientists are wrong (which is bound to happen faced with novelly) and governement are lying to you (which is bound to happen because governements are full of politicians), isn&#x27;t it _rational_ <i>not</i> to believe scientists, and not to trust governements ?<p>So the rules of the game for scientists are to never ever be wrong, and governments to never ever lie.<p>But of course, it&#x27;s not the case, and the &quot;right&quot; thing is to believe scientists because they&#x27;re right &quot;in general&quot;, and to trust politicians &quot;to a degree&quot;. But how is advocating that not falling in &quot;appeal to authority&quot; ?<p>Etc, etc, etc...<p>At least I&#x27;m having those brain farts in a quiet office with a cat on my nap and two jabs in my arms, instead of in a ICU :&#x2F; ...<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.shortcogs.com&#x2F;biais-covid" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.shortcogs.com&#x2F;biais-covid</a>
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ad8e将近 4 年前
This website is merely ok. Summary: 5&#x2F;5 in science communication; educators and scientists should learn from its brilliant innovations. 2&#x2F;5 in psychology, with deep knowledge but severe errors and misunderstandings.<p>Here&#x27;s a full list of every page I saw (no selection bias!) and my evaluations.<p>Anchoring heuristic: this category is not accurate. Anchoring takes two forms: as a priming effect, or as insufficient adjustment from a starting point. Instead, this category lists &quot;Confirmation bias, Echo chamber, Effort justification bias, Escalation of commitment bias, Hindsight bias, Illusion of transparency, Self-fulfilling prophecy&quot;. None of these relate to anchoring either directly or through mechanisms. The omission of anchoring, a major effect, is glaring.<p>Automation bias: the effect as described in the article is not even correct. There is an automation bias, but there is also the opposite anti-automation bias, where humans unfairly disregard the opinions of machines in some contexts, such as algorithmic recipe recommendations. Their CDS example is poorly chosen and barely illustrates the subject. There is a better example from the literature, where humans accept the results of a blatantly wrong calculator over their own estimates. In addition, automation bias is frequently justified even when compared to human &quot;rational&quot; thinking, as summarized in Thinking, Fast and Slow, Ch 21.<p>I recall this quote from Gelman: &quot;Duncan notes that many common sayings contradict each other. For example, The early bird catches the worm, but The early worm is eaten by the bird.&quot; This page on automation bias is no better than one of two contradictory sayings.<p>I like the three meters, of literature, impact, and replication. Their existence is a well-thought and marvelous insight on science communication. It&#x27;s a giant improvement over resources from 10 years ago, when such meters were barely considered by psychologists, much less communicators.<p>I like that they cited references to research papers. I like that they describe how the experiments measure the effect. These are major advantages over comparable websites.<p>Representativeness heuristic: this category is not accurate. Base rate and conjunction fit. The rest do not.<p>Base rate neglect: the explanation is quite bad. Kahneman&#x27;s theory is much more careful and requires huge contortion in &quot;just-so&quot; stories to fit experiments, about how statistical base rates are not always statistical. (I believe his contortions are correct.) But this page doesn&#x27;t even attempt to describe what qualifies as a &quot;base rate&quot;.<p>The Trump example is a loose fit and the test example is so vague as to be meaningless. The examples in the literature, with criminal identification and test positivity rates, have better writing.<p>Conjunction fallacy: don&#x27;t pick that famous Linda example if you have to explain all its linguistic caveats. Your explanations are not convincing, just assertions which the reader can&#x27;t tell the truth of. (And there are better explanations, like replication under single evaluation vs joint evaluation, or replications with clarifying language, which are not given.) Nevertheless, this page is broadly correct. It is over-specific, focusing on the direct violation of conjunction rather than the representativeness process that underlies the probability estimation, but perhaps the specificity is justified if one wants to hew to the literature.<p>About-&gt;Our team: oh my god, the authors are psychology PhD students. I think psychology needs more academic interest from students, so that graduate programs can have stricter filtering. This website does not give hope that psychology will cast off its bad reputation soon.