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Economic costs of war

666 点作者 hncurious将近 4 年前

40 条评论

el_jay将近 4 年前
To those here riffing on the theme of “this misrepresents the volume and beneficiaries of the transactions involved” - you’re not wrong. Accurate representation of public info like this is a top organisational problem for our species at the moment.<p>But I do think you miss the point, so aptly put by Mr Eisenhower:<p>“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter with a half-million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people. . . . This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.”<p>In a strictly limited sense, I’d rather get my cross of iron at 66% off than for the full $6.4T. Better yet would be universal healthcare, enough homes to go round, clean, sustainable energy production systems, and bridges that keep on bridging.
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hestefisk将近 4 年前
“Medicare for all”, the single payer universal healthcare system in the US, was projected to cost between $16-34T [1] over a decade. I know there are some big questions around the actual cost of US aggression &#x2F; state terrorism since 9&#x2F;11 (ie 6.4T vs 2T as per other entries in this thread). A rough 80&#x2F;20 analysis suggests:<p>* We could have funded free healthcare to roughly one quarter of the US population for 10 years (see [1]) * We could have funded free medication for all US citizens for 20 years (assuming US spends an average $1100&#x2F;yr per patient, approx double of other countries [2], viz a biz the estimated spend of $1K USD &#x2F; yr per US citizen spent over 20 years on aggression since 9-11 mentioned above) * …<p>I quite like the following quote by Noam Chomsky on US international terror in Afghanistan (and Nicaragua, Iraq, Sudan and many other places):<p>“ The U.S. is officially committed to what is called “low–intensity warfare.” That’s the official doctrine. If you read the definition of low–intensity conflict in army manuals and compare it with official definitions of “terrorism” in army manuals, or the U.S. Code, you find they’re almost the same. Terrorism is the use of coercive means aimed at civilian populations in an effort to achieve political, religious, or other aims. That’s what the World Trade Center bombing was, a particularly horrifying terrorist crime. And that’s official doctrine. I mentioned a couple of examples. We could go on and on. It’s simply part of state action, not just the U.S. of course.” [3]<p>It sums up the meaninglessness quite well.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.crfb.org&#x2F;blogs&#x2F;how-much-will-medicare-all-cost" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.crfb.org&#x2F;blogs&#x2F;how-much-will-medicare-all-cost</a> [2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;data.oecd.org&#x2F;healthres&#x2F;pharmaceutical-spending.htm#indicator-chart" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;data.oecd.org&#x2F;healthres&#x2F;pharmaceutical-spending.htm#...</a> [3] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;monthlyreview.org&#x2F;2001&#x2F;11&#x2F;01&#x2F;the-united-states-is-a-leading-terrorist-state&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;monthlyreview.org&#x2F;2001&#x2F;11&#x2F;01&#x2F;the-united-states-is-a-...</a>
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epicureanideal将近 4 年前
Perhaps they should&#x27;ve spent this much on medical research instead. For the same money perhaps we could save a few million people dying of various diseases or cancer. It would take a whole lot of terrorist events to counter the benefits of significant R&amp;D funding for medicine (or maybe a lot of other things).
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foolinaround将近 4 年前
A point no one seems to be making is that the $6.4T - a good amount of it just did not vanish...<p>it just found its way into the employees of the state , the war industrial complex seen in the posh houses around the beltway and beyond...<p>it just did not reach all the Americans...<p>those that made bank will no doubt be incentivized to keep up the charade..<p>the scary part to me is what they are going to cook up next to keep the dollars flowing...
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jaggederest将近 4 年前
Approximately $20,000 per person. $1000 a year would have made a nice universal basic income for the last 20 years.
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xyst将近 4 年前
Given the current state of Afghanistan, the return on investment is definitely not worth it. Our grandchildren will be paying for this debt.<p>This is $2T that could have went towards this country’s dismal healthcare system, funding social security, public education, and miscellaneous social programs.<p>Instead it has went directly to the DoD companies and private military contracting companies. $2T was literally stolen from the American people. This doesn’t even include the costs to support the few Afghan immigrants that we were able to extract and the healthcare towards the veterans that gave their limbs and life to the service.<p>As an American, I feel sick just thinking about it.
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throwthere将近 4 年前
This title is completely wrong. The article estimates the US has accumulated around $2 trillion in war debt as of 2020. It goes on to estimate interest payments will equal $2 trillion by 2030 and $6.4 trillion by 2050.
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toomuchtodo将近 4 年前
But we can’t afford universal healthcare.<p>Edit: Y’all, every other OECD country doesn’t have the healthcare challenges the US has, and they also don’t light trillions of $fiat on fire waging useless wars. You should care how tax dollars are spent.
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harry8将近 4 年前
This is why the military industrial complex hates Wikileaks so very much.<p>When the population knows the truth from source documents that cut through lies they really, really don&#x27;t like the racket.<p>Asssange is still being prosecuted on charges that seem more than just a little spurious.
JohnJamesRambo将近 4 年前
Deaths 9&#x2F;11 2,996<p>Deaths Covid-19 USA 621,000<p>207x<p>Lack of understanding of large numbers is a flaw in the human mind we have to figure out how to fix.
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legitster将近 4 年前
Without their bizarre accounting, the actual number is closer to $2T spent.<p>It&#x27;s apples and oranges, but since people love making the comparison, the last 20 years of war would be enough to cover the cost of Medicare for All for... 6 months.
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sonicggg将近 4 年前
The USA wasted 1 trillion just in that dumpster called Afghanistan, only to see its biggest rival, China, be the only one to secure mining rights with the Taliban. They really learned nothing from recent history.<p>This was a major defeat in the geopolitical chess game.
_trampeltier将近 4 年前
As we did learn last year with Irene Triplett, the last person who got money from the us civil war, a war is not over, when no gun does shot. For many, many years pension has to be paid.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;eu.usatoday.com&#x2F;story&#x2F;news&#x2F;nation&#x2F;2020&#x2F;06&#x2F;10&#x2F;irene-triplett-last-civil-war-pensioner-73-monthly-dies&#x2F;5333830002&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;eu.usatoday.com&#x2F;story&#x2F;news&#x2F;nation&#x2F;2020&#x2F;06&#x2F;10&#x2F;irene-t...</a>
duxup将近 4 年前
I remember when Bush Jr&#x27;s big campaign promise was &quot;no nation building&quot;.<p>And then we got ultra nation building.<p>Maybe he should have listened to himself?
Coneylake将近 4 年前
Doesn&#x27;t most of this money go back to paying American soldiers and so most of this money goes back into the American economy?
soheil将近 4 年前
It’s so odd that people treat this as if that money has evaporated. It was spent by the US in the US. I don’t know any billionaire defense contractors but I could be wrong. That means the money was spent on workers and equipment. The former creates jobs the later pushes our envelope of technological know-how forward, think DARPA =&gt; internet. Lastly the dollar is the world reserve currency. We’re not really paying for every dollar we spend, there is a lot of leverage we have in deciding what countries get to pay what portion of each dollar we borrow. To fight this, is the main reason euro was created and why the European Union came to be. Last I checked Eurozone is not doing so well economically.
newman314将近 4 年前
Two words.<p>Universal healthcare. The money is there but the will is not.
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gdsdfe将近 4 年前
I wonder how much of that went to the pocket of members of the Bush administration. They had big interests in various DOD suppliers.
curation将近 4 年前
The West is an itinerant war machine. We define who we are, prove our ethics via an Other we best. The only solution is Copernican.
rdevsrex将近 4 年前
A staggering sum, but not surprising. I wonder how the last 20 years would have played out if we reacted to 9&#x2F;11 with humility and soul searching instead of jingoism. I mean, the blowback in the Middle East didn’t come out of nowhere. Hopefully we will learn from this and back to walking softly.
markus_zhang将近 4 年前
Well good job for the boys and girls who managed to grab bucks and power through all those mess then.
mensetmanusman将近 4 年前
What about the social costs? Vietnam was the start of American mistrust of government.<p>Now soldiers and their families are learning that all the suffering was meaningless. I’m surprised people still sign up for the military.
jeffbee将近 4 年前
The little fact I keep in my mind on this topic is for a fraction of this cost the USA could have simply purchased all of non-urbanized Canada, and this would surely have been a far better investment.
Borrible将近 4 年前
Who in his right mind, would mind the costs?<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Great_Illusion" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Great_Illusion</a>
trentnix将近 4 年前
And a sizable portion of the population believes the government should take on more responsibility, as if those outcomes will be better somehow. It’s Gell-Mann amnesia of another kind.
pfdietz将近 4 年前
If a human life has a statistical value of $9M (the value used in determining if a federal safety regulation is justified), this is 700K lives.
jeffrogers将近 4 年前
Whatever the number, the privacy costs and the downstream implications are significantly higher. Who knows where that will all end...
webwielder2将近 4 年前
How much would it cost to make the US carbon neutral? Or cure one of the top 10 terminal illnesses&#x2F;conditions?
gerash将近 4 年前
The money spent on the military does trickle down to create a set of jobs and funds some research work.<p>That said, it doesn&#x27;t seem like the best capital allocation. Spending so much human capital, time and effort on trying to put together metal objects which either shoot bullets or blow up isn&#x27;t the most useful endeavor esp. when there is not much competition to necessitate the efforts.
busymom0将近 4 年前
There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. - smedley butler<p>War is a racket. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. - smedley butler<p>War is just a racket... I believe in adequate defense at the coastline and nothing else. - smedley butler<p>Major General Smedley Darlington Butler (July 30, 1881 – June 21, 1940), nicknamed &quot;Old Gimlet Eye&quot;,[1] was a senior United States Marine Corps officer who fought in both the Mexican Revolution and World War I. During his 34-year career as a Marine, he participated in military actions in the Philippines, China, and Central America; the Caribbean during the Banana Wars; and France in World War I. Butler was, at the time of his death, the most decorated Marine in U.S. history. By the end of his career, Butler had received 16 medals, five for heroism. He is one of 19 men to receive the Medal of Honor twice, one of three to be awarded both the Marine Corps Brevet Medal (along with Wendell Neville and David Porter) and the Medal of Honor, and the only Marine to be awarded the Brevet Medal and two Medals of Honor, all for separate actions.<p>In 1933, he became involved in a controversy known as the Business Plot, when he told a congressional committee that a group of wealthy industrialists were planning a military coup to overthrow President Franklin D. Roosevelt, with Butler selected to lead a march of veterans to become dictator, similar to fascist regimes at that time. The individuals involved all denied the existence of a plot, and the media ridiculed the allegations, but a final report by a special House of Representatives Committee confirmed some of Butler&#x27;s testimony.<p>Butler later became an outspoken critic of American wars and their consequences. In 1935, Butler wrote a book titled War Is a Racket, where he describes and criticizes the workings of the United States in its foreign actions and wars, such as those in which he had been involved, including the American corporations and other imperialist motivations behind them.<p>I would highly recommend the audiobook of his book from 1920s:<p>Warning from 1920s: WAR IS A RACKET by Maj. Gen. Smedley D. Butler - FULL AudioBook:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=26O-2SVcrw0" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=26O-2SVcrw0</a>
fractal618将近 4 年前
My therapist says I shouldn&#x27;t read stuff like this anymore because it upsets me too much.
tick_tock_tick将近 4 年前
That seems unbelievable cheap for 20 years of war?
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rcurry将近 4 年前
Whatever. We have all these online sites where we can do battle over politics. Can’t we keep HN as a fun place to talk about tech stuff?
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poof131将近 4 年前
Having spent a decade involved with the military, both big (as a Navy fighter pilot) and small (a tour in Baghdad assisting special forces), I’m disgusted by the waste, destructiveness, and ineffectiveness of these wars. Some of the events that stick in my memory:<p>In 2007, Marine prowler pilots ran it up the chain of command that they were having “zero” effects stopping IEDs in Iraq. They were told to shut up and keep flying the missions even though ground forces would turn off their “effective” vehicle jammers thinking the planes provided support.<p>My friend, flying an F-18, found insurgents shooting rockets at a base, and instead of using a laser or gps guided bomb to take out the threat, he was told to spot for artillery, which preceded to miss the target on multiple shots until the enemy drove away.<p>One of the more effective planes that JSOC leveraged was the super tucano, that could fly at $600 per flight hour versus $10k for an F-18, and also do a better job. Big Navy and Air Force joined together to shut down the program trying to expand its usage.<p>The massive number of contractors in Baghdad, driving around brand new F-350s. Getting paid ungodly sums of money next to their poorly paid military counterparts. Ex-pilots getting paid $20k+ a month for a job I’d happily have done instead of my near meaningless ground-tour job. The SF guys complaining about their “support” contractors getting paid $1k a day and taking none of the risks.<p>Patraeus having a peace deal with Sadr that said US troops wouldn’t enter Sadr City, but of course, all the attacks started being launched from there. So he wanted SF to go in with their Iraq counterparts, not on official orders, but just from a phone call, and not to file a secret after-action report, all so he could claim plausible deniability. An awesome SF captain said “fuck that” and his leadership agreed, telling the general he could provide the order over a phone call but they wouldn’t stop filing after-action reports.<p>I remember Tailhook and all the admirals, McCain, and CEOs of leading contractors all schmoozing it up. Proceeding to build planes and weapons the operators didn’t want: one plane to do everything (JSF), a crapy Navy ATFLIR (when the Sniper was better). Topgun instructors were ordered not to talk about deploying Sniper pods on F-18s. I’m sure some of the admirals are probably on the board of directors now.<p>The level of grift in senior leadership is just amazing. What an embarrassing moment for the talking heads and leaders of our national security apparatus. Afghanistan should never have been more than SF and airpower. And the Iraq war never should have been. We can’t build nations with the military. But once a war starts, everyone wants to play because it’s the money spigot. Not too different from large civilian orgs.<p>But really this is all our fault. I remember sitting in a palace on a hill in Baghdad, in an SF operations center, watching a wall-full of flatscreen displays, with predator feeds of young SF soldiers risking their lives, next to talking heads screaming about the developing financial crisis. Seeing the massive outcry and response to the stock market crashing, I realized the wars were just a tv show and didn’t really matter. No one cared, especially compared to their pocketbook. And once I got out in 2011, I didn’t pay much attention myself either. But I do vote now for politicians who talk about reducing the US military presence abroad and view with disgust fake hawks who’ve never served but are happy to send others to war for American prestige. And good on Biden for finally pulling the plug even if the execution bordered on incompetence. There probably really wasn’t another option. Listen to the generals who’d say “stay, we can’t give up”…. the endless graft. A sad time for many of the Afghan people. &#x2F;rant.
minikites将近 4 年前
Imagine if we spent that money on a new version of the Marshall Plan and created new markets for our economy. Instead we bomb and shoot people for no reason and create a generation of people who hate us.
andyxor将近 4 年前
how much would it cost to terraform Mars
baybal2将近 4 年前
Clinton Bill made the impossible, and balanced US budget, and Bush George very much intentionally, and purposefully undid it
new_realist将近 4 年前
Total U.S. assets amount to about $225 trillion. Spending 1&#x2F;700th of that per year for the past 20 years to protect those assets seems a reasonable investment.
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lmilcin将近 4 年前
Nah... probably large portion of this was paid to US corporations and citizens.<p>Spending on the level of government is counterintuitive. If you are government you hand out money but it gets back to you.<p>Unfortunately, interest on that debt is real and is owed to other countries.
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Grakel将近 4 年前
There isn&#x27;t an &quot;opportunity cost&quot; as the article discusses, there&#x27;s no evidence that Congress would have spent that money on something else. It doesn&#x27;t sit in an account and then they allocate it, they make it up on paper and then try (and fail) to cover it later.
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