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One in 5k: The Real Chances of a Breakthrough Infection

21 点作者 rafaelc超过 3 年前

7 条评论

ProjectArcturis超过 3 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.vn&#x2F;hgYtQ" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.vn&#x2F;hgYtQ</a>
graeme超过 3 年前
The analysis is absolute garbage for forward risk.<p>1. 1&#x2F;5000 daily is 7% on an annual basis. Who cares about a daily rate?<p>2. I downloaded covid data for jul 1-aug 26th and found daily average was 80,000. Us average 160,000 now. So right off the bat, 2x underestimate. Up to 14% annual risk.<p>3. Infections are estimated to be about 3x greater than reported cases. So now up to 42% annual risk.<p>4. Delta is associated with breakthroughs. It was 60% jul 1st. Now 100%. So this also should increase breakthrough risk.<p>Risk of infection at current case rates likes around 50% for a vaccinated person in the US, on average.<p>Not so comforting once you make the necessary adjustments above. I do not think they made a serious attempt at analysis.<p>I used Our World In Data for all stats.
david_allison超过 3 年前
Title buries the lede, One in 5k per day<p>&gt; How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.
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matrix超过 3 年前
For those that can’t access the article, here’s the key sentences:<p>“In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.<p>How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.”
brundolf超过 3 年前
&gt; These numbers don’t include undiagnosed cases, which are often so mild that people do not notice them and do not pass the virus to anyone else.<p>But some of those people still end up with long-covid, right?<p>For a long time now that&#x27;s been my biggest worry; at this point it&#x27;s pretty much my only (personal) worry
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ggalaxximm超过 3 年前
I assume anyone commenting in here has an online subscription to the New York Times, and thus they can read the article.<p>I can&#x27;t. (read the paywalled article.) What does it say?
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ipspam超过 3 年前
This is, of course, bullshit. Multiple tricks are used to further the narrative in this.<p>First: the CDC decided NOT to track breakthrough cases. For obvious reasons. That leaves us with less than ideal data. In this case, the data comes from three places: Utah; Virginia; and King County.<p>Second: These are the DAILY odds. Even assuming everything else is correct and stays the same, this is still a 1 in 7 chance over the course of 2 years.<p>Third: half of breakthrough cases are probably missed. Maybe more.<p>Third: the vaccine is near its highest efficacy now, and has only started to drop. It&#x27;s all down hill from here.<p>Fourth: vaccine testing bias is not discussed.<p>I&#x27;ll do my own math for the vaccinated:<p>Only half the cases are caught with a PCR test. = 1 in 7 chance over 1 years.<p>Let&#x27;s do two years. 1 in 3.5 chance.<p>Now throw in some vaccine durability issues over 2 years. 1 in 2.5 chance???<p>Then a new variant.<p>Ah fuck it, everyone gets Covid.
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