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One in Three Americans Already Had Covid-19 by the End of 2020

49 点作者 aazaa超过 3 年前

6 条评论

rossdavidh超过 3 年前
&quot;The study is the first to comprehensively quantify the overall burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the U.S. during 2020...&quot;<p>Well, it&#x27;s not been widely reported, but if you dig through the cdc.gov website you can find their estimate of the multiple (actual cases &#x2F; PCR-confirmed cases), which has been between 4 and 5 (closer to 4) for a while now (higher in early 2020). It doesn&#x27;t get the press it should, but it&#x27;s not a new finding.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;covid.cdc.gov&#x2F;covid-data-tracker&#x2F;#serology-surveillance" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;covid.cdc.gov&#x2F;covid-data-tracker&#x2F;#serology-surveilla...</a>
bluepoint超过 3 年前
At about that time there were 400k deaths, which implies an infection fatality rate of 0.4%. This is consistent with various studies I ran across that point to a 0.2%, 0.3% fatality rate.
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throwawaysea超过 3 年前
Why isn’t a natural infection treated as equivalent to a vaccine? The CDC’s own slide deck for Delta (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.documentcloud.org&#x2F;documents&#x2F;21026654-57c98604-3b54-44f0-8b44-b148d8f75165" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.documentcloud.org&#x2F;documents&#x2F;21026654-57c98604-3b...</a>) acknowledges that a natural immunity of 35% would push R0 for Delta below 1 even with no masking at present vaccination rates.
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tamaharbor超过 3 年前
As of today, Covid has killed 0.06% of the world’s population. Perhaps we are over-reacting?
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mrkramer超过 3 年前
And for how long COVID antibodies will last? In the case of Spanish flu they lasted 100 years.[0]<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nationalgeographic.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;article&#x2F;flu-survivors-still-immune-after-90-years" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nationalgeographic.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;article&#x2F;flu-survi...</a>
thrway27777超过 3 年前
So I am still curious about what is going to happen to countries who have employed so far the &quot;zero-covid&quot; strategy once they finally open up.<p>Granted, I assume most of their population will be vaccinated, but there seems to be growing evidence that natural immunity gives you at least equal, or in some cases better protection than an mRNA jab(specially against new variants).<p>It also seems to be an established fact that older folks, who happen to be the most vulnerable group, do not respond as well to vaccines as one would&#x27;ve hoped.<p>I suspect that countries like Australia, NZ and China will still have to endure reasonably big COVID waves - surely they will be attenuated by the high vax rate, but will still be deadly enough to stress their healthcare system.<p>I do believe that they had the winning strategy against covid, but there are still unkwnown unknowns.
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