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Home Price to Income Ratio

544 点作者 hncurious超过 3 年前

57 条评论

game_the0ry超过 3 年前
A more relevant metric to consider - monthly mortgage payment to monthly income ratio.<p>Average interest rates in 2007 were 6.34% vs ~2.80% today. [1]<p>* 6.34% &#x2F; $2,000 monthly payment &#x2F; 20% down (~$65k) &gt;&gt; $328,319 price of home<p>* 2.80% &#x2F; $2,000 monthly payment &#x2F; 20% down (~$98k) &gt;&gt; $489,794 price of home<p>Homebuyers will make purchasing decision based on their monthly mortgage payments, instead of the home price.<p>When interest rates fall, the home&#x27;s price goes up but the monthly payment can stay the same. Therefore, increases in home (and other asset, since lower bowering costs can drive institutional investment in assets higher and non-linearly) prices can be driven higher without any change in supply &#x2F; demand dynamics.<p>Some hypotheticals to consider:<p>* as rates approach and touch 0, what will drive up home prices then?<p>* what happens when rates go up?<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.freddiemac.com&#x2F;pmms&#x2F;pmms30.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.freddiemac.com&#x2F;pmms&#x2F;pmms30.html</a>
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gp超过 3 年前
While it doesn&#x27;t directly affect the average person&#x27;s purchasing power, the same dramatic increase is happening in other asset values as well. [0] One interesting thing to note is that 2019 EV &#x2F; EBITDA values were already &quot;high,&quot; before the coronavirus was spreading.<p>I suspect these two phenomena have different causes overall, but low interest rates are a common factor that cause all asset prices to increase.<p>On the housing side, I suspect consumers purchase the house that their cashflow can comfortably support, not necessarily the one where they believe it is correctly valued, because the assumption that house values only increase means purchasing a well constructed house is almost never a &quot;bad deal.&quot;<p>I&#x27;m not sure what the &quot;solution,&quot; is, but knowing that voters hate when their home values fall does not give me confidence that prices will decrease in the long term.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.statista.com&#x2F;statistics&#x2F;953641&#x2F;sandp-500-ev-to-ebitda-multiples&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.statista.com&#x2F;statistics&#x2F;953641&#x2F;sandp-500-ev-to-e...</a>
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wffurr超过 3 年前
I never learn anything in these threads. It seems like everyone is just talking past each other with their pet theories and no particular way to tell which if any are correct or useful.
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standardUser超过 3 年前
Some very clever and influential people better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now. If they don&#x27;t, expect overwhelming support from Millennials for massive expansions to public housing and rent control, if not even more draconian measures.
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AndrewDucker超过 3 年前
Copying a link from a mysteriously dead comment below: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.corelogic.com&#x2F;intelligence&#x2F;comparing-two-home-price-booms-fifteen-years-apart&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.corelogic.com&#x2F;intelligence&#x2F;comparing-two-home-pr...</a><p>You <i>have</i> to take interest rates into account. The amount you pay, monthly, for a mortgage of the same size is very different at different interest levels.<p>What people care about is their monthly mortgage payment - that&#x27;s what makes a home affordable or not.<p>(Which isn&#x27;t to discount that downpayments are a percentage of home cost, and that&#x27;s pricing people out of being able to buy anything at all, even something they can easily make repayments on.)
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jandrese超过 3 年前
How much of this is a result of our &quot;don&#x27;t tax the rich&quot; policies that created a staggering amount of wealth at the top that has nowhere else to go? So many ultra rich investors are looking for something, anything, to invest in. Plus there is the feedback loop of massive growth you get as the bubble inflates.<p>Is this a direct result of our fiscal policy? Have we destabilize the economy in order to create the richest muilti-billionaires?
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mint2超过 3 年前
I’d be interested in seeing the total cost after accounting for interest in the loans, or monthly cost compared to monthly income. Most people don’t pay cash, and they pay more than the asking price due to interest. So high interest rate periods look artificially lower because they ignore a substantial amount of the price
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qwerty456127超过 3 年前
To me it feels like home prices are the single most important bug in the economy.<p>If we filter out skilled IT professionals (and other high-paid jobs), fundamentally rich people and also extremely poor (homeless in developed countries and those living in stick&#x2F;garbage huts in the &quot;3-rd world&quot;), the rest mostly spend almost all their income on paying for their home.<p>We invent new technologies but average homes become neither more affordable nor more perdurable.<p>The fact most of the ordinary people can never afford buying&#x2F;building a home without taking a loan they will have to pay for decades to come seems outrageously absurd to me.
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xnx超过 3 年前
I appreciate this effort since this gets closer than reporting on house prices alone. As other&#x27;s have pointed out there are a lot of significant factors being left out (e.g. interest rates). One of my favorite analysis is the historical chart on how many hours you had to work for an hour of artificial (candle, lamp, electric, etc.) light. I&#x27;d love to see this applied to housing, though housing is extra difficult because the quality has also changed immensely (indoor plumbing, electricity, etc.).
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peterlk超过 3 年前
I think there&#x27;s a pretty critical piece of analysis missing here: inflation. An alternative explanation might be that housing prices are being driven up by inflation, and wages haven&#x27;t caught up yet. There are two ways to lower the home value&#x2F;income ratio:<p>1. Decrease housing prices 2. Increase wages<p>We haven&#x27;t seen meaningful wage increases for a long time now, so perhaps it is time. Maybe this is just a symptom of wages not tracking with inflation, and the solution is to pay people more.
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nickff超过 3 年前
Why do they use &quot;average&quot; home price (without specifying whether it&#x27;s mean, median, or modal), with &quot;median&quot; income? It makes these graphs very difficult to interpret.
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6gvONxR4sf7o超过 3 年前
I’d love to see the same charts in terms of monthly payments on a new mortgage, rather than sticker price. The price itself matters in terms of downpayment, but ultra low interest rates are a huge factor. Right now, interest rates are so low that a huge mortgage has the same payments as a small one years ago would have been. Especially when you take inflation into account.
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jonas21超过 3 年前
One thing not captured in this chart is that the average house size in the U.S. has nearly tripled since the 1950&#x27;s.
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robterrin超过 3 年前
Came here to upvote anybody who mentioned Henry George and the land value tax. Can&#x27;t believe I&#x27;m the first one in this thread.<p>Read Progress and Poverty, he predicted it all over 100 years ago, and provided the solution. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;oll.libertyfund.org&#x2F;title&#x2F;george-progress-and-poverty" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;oll.libertyfund.org&#x2F;title&#x2F;george-progress-and-povert...</a>
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RcouF1uZ4gsC超过 3 年前
One thing this ignores is interest rates and availability of credit.<p>The biggest determinant of homes people buy is not the total price, but rather how much cash do they need for down payment, and what will the monthly payment be.<p>With low interest rates and increased credit availability ( you don’t need 20% down payment in many cases now), people on the same income are actually able to buy a more expensive home.<p>I think looking at monthly mortgage payments to income ratio over the long term might actually be more informative.
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MrFlibbles超过 3 年前
Affordability is limited by lending requirements.<p>Start with home price of $250k for example. If you can manage a 5% down payment (arguable) then the loan is for $237.5k.<p>With a 30 year loan at 3.5%, the principal and interest is $1,066.48 per month. Gross this up by 0.7 for taxes and insurance to get $1,523.54&#x2F;month.<p>Lenders will typically allow your payment to be as much as 28.0% of your gross income. This get us to income of $5,441.23&#x2F;month or $65,294.76&#x2F;year.<p>The multiple now if $65.3k income to $250.0k of house or roughly 3.83X.
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vessenes超过 3 年前
These charts are not very useful without taking interest rates and inflation into account; in fact you could almost use them to discuss interest rates and inflation, they are so intimately tied to housing prices and income.<p>If housing interest rates stay low or drop, prices will keep rising. Absent wage inflation that ratio will go up.<p>If inflation flows through to wages as it seems to be in process of doing, the ratio will stabilize or drop.
jdavis703超过 3 年前
I wouldn’t say we’re in a bubble, even though the numbers look like the last bubble. At least in my local market there’s a small number of home sales being distorted by a handful of people at the top of the income distribution.<p>What we’re seeing is a lack of housing, not middle class people buying up housing they can’t afford.
anonu超过 3 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;PSAVERT" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;PSAVERT</a><p>Personal savings rates are at all time highs. So it&#x27;s very possible the landscape has shifted under our feet. The past is not prologue to the future...
kipchak超过 3 年前
My worry as a potential buyer is that rates might remain low and home prices will roll over. While I don&#x27;t have a super high conviction that will happen, the potential risk of losing more of the value of something then my net worth greatly offsets the probable benefits of getting in now.
hammock超过 3 年前
I have in my head the rule of thumb that you can afford a house 3x your annual income (or a mortgage 28% of your monthly[1]).<p>I don&#x27;t see the line crossing 3 anywhere on that chart.<p>[1]Which translates to 4.2 on a 80&#x2F;20 loan
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mmaunder超过 3 年前
IMO we are in an inflationary cycle that is being underreported. Everything is becoming more expensive including you. It’s just that housing is becoming expensive faster than you are.<p>The US has a strong incentive to inflate their way out of debt post Covid. But the optics are catastrophic if they do it overtly. So they’ll keep reporting it low as long as possible. Look around you for reality.<p>If I’m right, you’ll want to take on as much fixed rate low-interest debt as you can stomach. Which explains why housing is getting expensive faster than you are.
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clipradiowallet超过 3 年前
This bears repeating: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.iedu.com&#x2F;Documents&#x2F;Manifesto1892.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.iedu.com&#x2F;Documents&#x2F;Manifesto1892.html</a><p>That is a link to the banker&#x27;s manifesto. The ideal scenario [in the manifesto] is for home prices to far eclipse yearly income, and for houses to be owned by banks instead of occupants. Everything old is new again...
Rebelgecko超过 3 年前
I wonder, is there a similar metric that tracks the average monthly mortgage payment over time instead? I think for most people&#x27;s purposes that&#x27;s a more relevant number and won&#x27;t have the confounding factor of interest rates (except to the extent that interest rates influence home prices, so maybe this would end up mirroring the case shiller index?)
lastofthemojito超过 3 年前
I&#x27;ve heard 3x income as a rule of thumb for how much house one can afford, but it looks like that&#x27;s never been widely followed. It also doesn&#x27;t make a whole heck of a lot of sense as interest rates have varied so widely - a better rule of thumb might be a ratio between the total amount of payments over the life of a mortgage and one&#x27;s income.
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a_c超过 3 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.numbeo.com&#x2F;property-investment&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.numbeo.com&#x2F;property-investment&#x2F;</a><p>Asian cities are way more expensive than american and european ones. Home price with a multiple of 15x to annual income is surely high.<p>&gt; Price to Income Ratio is the basic measure for apartment purchase affordability (lower is better). It is generally calculated as the ratio of median apartment prices to median familial disposable income, expressed as years of income (although variations are used also elsewhere).<p>Hong Kong is having a price to income ratio of 44.69 <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.numbeo.com&#x2F;property-investment&#x2F;country_result.jsp?country=Hong+Kong" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.numbeo.com&#x2F;property-investment&#x2F;country_result.js...</a> with Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment in City Centre of HK$ 253,655.52 (32k USD)<p>Side question, is the data highly sought after that the website is fetching US$20 to download?
steveBK123超过 3 年前
Probably need a 3rd time series that takes interest rates into account to provide a monthly-cost view.<p>Given sufficient savings, the price range for home shoppers is controlled by the monthly outlay which is driven by interest rates.<p>Sub-3% interest rates in 2021 means that the same monthly cost drives the headline house price a lot higher than 6%+ pre-2008.
dpierce9超过 3 年前
Pay is not gaussian so comparing median salary to average home price is confused (average salary is 45% more than median salary in the US with wide regional variation). Case Schiller also only looks at single family housing stock so it won’t capture anything higher density (apartment like condos, duplexes, etc).
blobbers超过 3 年前
In order to raise home values further, they&#x27;ll start offering a 40 year product to everyone. This will lower the monthly cost further. It makes sense, as the bank wants to keep the money train rolling. It&#x27;s actually &quot;good&quot; for everyone; underwriters (lower payment = lower risk), salespeople (continue to close), C-level execs (keep that money train rolling), home-buyers (heck yeah I can afford that 4 quadrillion dollar home).<p>I believe the way they&#x27;re currently handling &quot;lowering payments&quot; in delinquent loans in the United States is by offering 40 year terms on loans as adjustments. Rather than foreclosing, they offer a more palatable monthly rate by extending the loan for 10 years.
RoadieRoller超过 3 年前
Zillow and Open Door are manipulating the home prices in US. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=27765536" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=27765536</a> Cheap Loans, surplus cash, and inventory hoarding.
KETpXDDzR超过 3 年前
One important change: Funds and investors are allowed to buy single family homes starting 2012. That&#x27;s one reason for the crazy housing market and makes the price to income ratio less useful.<p>(Src: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theatlantic.com&#x2F;technology&#x2F;archive&#x2F;2019&#x2F;02&#x2F;single-family-landlords-wall-street&#x2F;582394&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theatlantic.com&#x2F;technology&#x2F;archive&#x2F;2019&#x2F;02&#x2F;singl...</a>)
cudgy超过 3 年前
“ an average single family house in the United States cost more than 7 times the U.S. median annual household income. ”<p>Why average numerator divided by median denominator?
p4l4g4超过 3 年前
My eye was drawn to the graphs. Especially the house price &#x2F; income graphs. There seems to be a trend in the US graph: if you zoom in far enough, you can see a consistent drop in Januari (every year). The UK graph does not show this trend..<p>Does someone know the origin of this trend? And why the two countries don&#x27;t show the same trend?
keltex超过 3 年前
A more accurate measure of affordability change might be home payment to income ratio:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.corelogic.com&#x2F;intelligence&#x2F;comparing-two-home-price-booms-fifteen-years-apart&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.corelogic.com&#x2F;intelligence&#x2F;comparing-two-home-pr...</a>
forrestthewoods超过 3 年前
Home price isn’t technically the right metric. “Mortgage payment to income ratio” is. As mortgage interest rates go down home values go up, but mortgage payments might now.<p>No doubt housing is expensive and getting more expensive. But I’ve always wanted to see the mortgage payment plot too.
bogomipz超过 3 年前
Can anyone explain what the cause of the steep cliff drop in the first graph that occurred between 1953 and 1959 might have been? Would this be the postwar suburban building boom driving down prices? Something else?
irrational超过 3 年前
&gt; Historically, an average house in the U.S. cost around 5 times the yearly household income.<p>I just purchased a house in July for 3.7x my yearly household income. The above fact makes me feel better about the purchase ;-)
nullc超过 3 年前
I wonder if how this can be corrected for the different timing of the numerator and denominator. I assume housing prices are closer to real time while median incomes are lagging by a year.
unethical_ban超过 3 年前
Just throwing an idea out there: what if we abolished or heavily penalized long term renting?<p>No more renting a house for years. No more apartments. If you are in a long term contract, you get equity.
jxramos超过 3 年前
I haven&#x27;t seen this commented on, but I find it really intriguing the button at the bottom to buy the data for $19.95 USD. Pretty interesting form of side business.
LukeShu超过 3 年前
NB: The Y axis of the first chart does not start at 0.
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tqi超过 3 年前
Given that the median household income trend is (relatively) linear over time, is this ratio telling us much more than median home prices alone?
ryanSrich超过 3 年前
The most surprising thing here to me is that a home is 5 times annual income. That seems insane to me. That would mean someone making $250k per year would be able to afford a $1.25m home. I don’t see how that’d work, unless that person has almost no other bills and or lives in a state with extremely low income tax. After taxes and other expenses $250k &#x2F; 12 is not that much. Certainly not enough to buy a $1.25m home.
dboreham超过 3 年前
And people scoff at cryptocurrencies...
lvl100超过 3 年前
I wonder what would happen if we stop financial institutions from “investing” in residential real estate.
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mensetmanusman超过 3 年前
Now it’s good time to mention that ‘The Big Short’ is a good watch.
cannabis_sam超过 3 年前
Our parents really ran this shit into the ground didn’t they?
brailsafe超过 3 年前
Seems like there were a few memory leaks in the last century.
refurb超过 3 年前
Now adjust that chart for interest rates and monthly payments.
marcodiego超过 3 年前
Are we close to another housing bubble like in 2008?
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Jerry2超过 3 年前
RIP American Dream.
disqard超过 3 年前
Why does this graph start its y-axis at 3?
rc_mob超过 3 年前
half the price of house is still more than i paid for it. market has been goofy
ZeroGravitas超过 3 年前
I wonder if it&#x27;s possible to capture how much money is being made by owning the house. So you&#x27;d need to estimate future sales price and then remove that from the monthly mortgage price before comparing to income. I&#x27;ve heard of people in London who&#x27;s asset appreciation makes them more than their wage each year, but not sure how representative that is.<p>People who happened to own property in a pre-gentrified area would have negative costs. Just holding the asset as prices rise would be worthwhile. In a socialist scheme that owner would be everyone&#x2F;the government.<p>Meanwhile, someone moving into that same area will be paying more for the already baked in price rise assumption which may entirely cancel out the expected future asset price increase. Who pays and who benefits is random and unrelated to any useful economic input, like building homes people want in areas that need people.<p>But then how do you price in the uncertainty? Maybe the market collapses for several unrelated reasons.<p>Feels like there should be an insurance&#x2F;socialist answer to this problem, where the risks and rewards of property investment are shared between people with no control over them.<p>Land value tax is one element of this.<p>Normalising renting and having democratic control over the landlord&#x2F;renter contracts is another.<p>Singapore seems to do well with this, but not sure how translatable this is. Feels like the kind of thing that needs to go very wrong before the sensible approach gets taken.<p>Society generally seems to need to touch the fire to believe it&#x27;s hot.<p>edit: business idea - private land value tax.<p>You buy into a corporation, that corporation buys lots of buildings in popular locations. You pay a land value tax to the corporation and a market rate &#x27;rent&#x27; for the building.<p>As the land value tax rises, you might get priced out and be forced to move to one of their cheaper homes (or cash out) but if the land value tax gets too high for anyone, the corporation can sell the building to someone else at market rate, or if the location is great, knock down the existing building and rebuild more compact apartments to spread the land tax over more owners.<p>Basically the Singapore model, but private. You get to live in cool places, move easily (if the scheme is big enough) and profit from the insane property bubble with hedged risk.
autoliteInline超过 3 年前
Did I miss the part of the article that mentioned the average size of houses over time? The increasing code requirements over time?
bushbaba超过 3 年前
Simple the 50 year or 100 year mortgage.<p>But really covid was the perfect opportunity to let the housing market collapse and reset buying us an additional decade. Wasted opportunity by bailing out landlords.
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BooneJS超过 3 年前
How is this true? I think our home was 2x our family income. It’s been paid off for a while.
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