World War 3 to Be Fought over Semiconductors?

70 点作者 jsmcgd超过 3 年前

14 条评论

rhino369超过 3 年前

Fighting a war over an industry reliant on large, immobile, extremely vulnerable factories/laboratories is really, really, really, really, really, really, really stupid.If China invaded Taiwan to controls fabs, the USA would just destroy them with air power. And that's assuming Taiwan didn't sabotage them first.

评论 #28616951 未加载

评论 #28616957 未加载

评论 #28617653 未加载

评论 #28619567 未加载

评论 #28617316 未加载

评论 #28617410 未加载

评论 #28617606 未加载

评论 #28616887 未加载

评论 #28618107 未加载

评论 #28617348 未加载

评论 #28623580 未加载

评论 #28619249 未加载

评论 #28616910 未加载

AcerbicZero超过 3 年前

I think the order of operations is backwards here.China wouldn’t start a war over semiconductors, but if the supply had already been cut off and internal economic collapse was imminent, it could drive a military response. Something similar to what the oil embargo (arguably) drove Japan to do in 1941.Chinas primary military advantage is that the one or two million PLA soldiers with AKs don’t require semiconductors to be effective and western powers lack the willpower to engage in conventional warfare.

评论 #28617672 未加载

lizknope超过 3 年前

I think it is more likely that WW3 would be AVOIDED because of semiconductors. The world wants peace so that Taiwan can keep building chips.

rapsey超过 3 年前

> China's manufacturing economy AND its military are entirely dependent on foreign-sourced semiconductorsEveryone else's military is also.

评论 #28617077 未加载

Borrible超过 3 年前

China won't invade Taiwan because of industrial assets.China has time. Only when it becomes convinced that there is no hope for peaceful reunification will it dare to invade. And it is not clear whether they are even capable of doing so. The last successful amphibious invasion of similar magnitude was D-Day. Keep that hope alive and you have a more relaxed situation in a couple of generations. China must be limited, but it must not be snubbed. The perception of deepening relations between Taiwan and the US diminishes their hopes. They will wait long time, but they won't allow Taiwan to be taken away by a western power.

YetAnotherNick超过 3 年前

This is such a dumb proposition. Even if you get military presence in a country for fab, a fab will loose the competitive advantage in just two years. And there are slots available in fabs that China could easily obtain for money/other deal rather than going for war.

评论 #28617811 未加载

giantg2超过 3 年前

"World War 3 to Be Fought over Semiconductors?"No. Supply might play a part in a conflict, but I don't see this as being the cause."China's manufacturing economy AND its military are entirely dependent on foreign-sourced semiconductors."Why would they risk a global conflict that would weaken its military that would implicitly be weak from a shortage? The only reason I could see them taking this approach is if the foriegn suppliers stop providing the chips and they don't ramp up their own production during an existing conflict, backing them into a corner to take over production in another country (good luck having those facilities intact and staffing them).

评论 #28617059 未加载

anticodon超过 3 年前

Oil/gas are basic necessities. Without oil and gas it is impossible to continue a war, to feed the population (fertilizers are made from oil and gas, tractors run on oil), to make electricity for the industry and population, to warm houses during winter. Even "green" energy cannot exist without fossil fuels.30-40 years ago the world wasn't so dependent on semiconductors. If all the semiconductor factories would be destroyed now, it won't be end of the world. They're not required to survive. I'd easily survive the winter without laptop and smartphone. But without heating it would be impossible.

WastingMyTime89超过 3 年前

I haven't watched the video but I can already say no to the question.First, China doesn't want to invade Taiwan for its semiconductors industry. They see Taiwan as part of their territory and view reuniting it with the mainland as the conclusion of the revolution. Also they want control of the Taiwan strait to secure the South China sea.Then, Europe most likely wouldn't follow the USA into a war with China and as colonial empires don't exist anymore neither would Africa so it wouldn't be a world war.

Grismar超过 3 年前

The real question there is "would the world go to war with China to protect what is left of Taiwan's freedom?" You only have to look at diplomatic attitudes of the past decades to know that the answer is "of course not".It would certainly cause massive upheaval if China tightened its grip on Taiwan, diplomatic and economic sanctions, a massive shift in semiconductor production, a change in status for other semiconductor producing countries and a delay in the forward march of computing technology.But not World War 3.

pupppet超过 3 年前

Why have we placed all our chips on Taiwan? With China muscling in on Taiwan shouldn't the first order of business be setting up chip manufacturing in the US?

atlasunshrugged超过 3 年前

Peter Zeihan (American geopolitical strategist) recently did a short video on this (3 mins). Tl;Dr: He's not worried because supply chains will re-order<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sXu0nZoamk&feature=youtu.be" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sXu0nZoamk&feature=youtu.be</a>

brink超过 3 年前

The unilateral lockdowns were not worth it.

Factorium超过 3 年前

The political and military 'elite' of the USA have been compromised. If there is a hot war with China, it will be one that America has been pre-arranged to lose, as part of a transition in hegemony.<a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/09/21/double-trouble-for-biden-494411" rel="nofollow">https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/09/21/dou...</a> Joe Biden and son are corrupt<a href="https://www.dailynews.com/2021/09/19/patriot-or-traitor-milley-must-go/" rel="nofollow">https://www.dailynews.com/2021/09/19/patriot-or-traitor-mill...</a> The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has said openly he would coordinate with the Chinese against AmericaThe concept of nations bribing individuals to sway World Wars occurred in the last one:<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/may/23/mi6-spain-200m-bribes-ww2" rel="nofollow">https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/may/23/mi6-spain-200m-br...</a>"MI6 spent the present-day equivalent of more than $200m bribing senior Spanish military officers, ship owners and other agents to keep Spain out of the second world war"Spain entering WW2 on the Axis side would have meant the Allies would be completely locked out of the Mediterranean, and probably changed the course of history. Bribing foreign government officials yields great ROI!History has other examples of Autocratic competitors using Liberal nations' Democratic procedures against them:<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberum_veto" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberum_veto</a>"The liberum veto was a major cause of the deterioration of the Commonwealth political system... when foreign powers bribed Sejm members to paralyze its proceedings, and resulted in the Commonwealth's eventual destruction and the partition of Poland"The State Premiere of Victoria, home to the city (Melbourne) with the world's longest COVID lockdown, signed secret deals to partner with China for infrastructure development:<a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/paul-murray/frightening-stuff-victoria-belt-and-road-agreement-details-released/video/00743c5ac201225178f58f0c3d97f852" rel="nofollow">https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/paul-murray/frightening-s...</a>This is a country that America has just agreed to share nuclear technology and submarines with...

评论 #28617296 未加载