Google's Latest Acquisition: The perils of licensing to your competitors

Is it only me that think's this guy's a nutter that gets by by saying whatever Apple fans want to hear? Here's some of his startlingly wrong predictions about the smartphone market from last year:<p><a href="http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe-for-an-android-dominated-future/" rel="nofollow">http://www.asymco.com/2010/11/03/what-do-you-have-to-believe...</a><p>His key arguments where that:<p>* Android wouldn't grow faster than the average of RIM, Nokia, HP and Apple.<p>* Nokia wouldn't dump Symbian&#38;Meego for someone else's OS.<p>* Android wouldn't do a great deal better than Windows Mobile<p>* Android vendors wouldn't be profitable<p>So not very good really, in fact a total blowout. Maybe he knows stuff about Apple, to be honest I think he's just like a sports fan during a season when his team is playing well. His elaborate theories of why they are succeeding don't seem to mesh with reality much, except in that Apple is doing very well, and I'm not sure he cares if they do or not.

<i>"Symbian was formed to be governed in a way very similar to the original Android via the Open Handset Alliance."</i><p>Riiiiight. I was at an OHA company during the early Android days post-Google. OHA was created by Google to make their subcontractors <i>look</i> like "partners" in Android development. There was no boss other than Google in this project.

Google could shut down Motorola Mobility's hardware business, keeping its patents.

So, Verizon needs to hire some coders and get cracking? It took Apple and Google <i>years</i> to produce a good modern phone OS. Palm took a shot at their own os, and as near as i can tell, they're gone now.<p>Phone manufacturers made their choice a decade ago. They picked closed, complex, developer hostile platforms. Now, it seems, that was a mistake. Phone manufacturers get to fund Apple, Google, or Microsoft's, move into their markets.

I think two of Google's major aims will be to improve competition among Android manufacturers and use the experience gained from building its own phones to improve Android for all of them.<p>That's not to say that Google won't make much money off the physical device, but I think Google's aim is to increase revenue from Android (ultimately adverts) by making the platform better.

Unimportant. The patent problem needs to be solved Right Now, and it's worth risking a long term complication.

"The supplier is also a competitor"<p>Wasn't there an article recently about how Samsung supplies a large chunk of the components in the iPhone? It's a different department but isn't it the same dilemma?