I don’t follow the logic of “It's not certain that [a project] will start making money, but it's certain that one of my next small projects will, again.”<p>If the success of any one project is uncertain, then summing (so to speak) projects doesn’t make any future project <i>certain</i>. On some intuitive level it does seem like the likelihood of each successive project doing well does go up (as you develop skills and learn about markets, etc.), but no single project is “due” for success because N prior projects failed.<p>This seems obvious to me, but I didn’t see anyone else specifically comment on it so I figured I would.