Something to recognize.<p>Logistics can be somewhat thought of as a flow problem.<p>If demand far exceeds supply, and both supply and demand stay constant, the backlog will continue to get worse in severity over time.<p>For the problem to get better, either demand has to decline, or supply has to increase. However, the ability to expand supply seems limited in the short term. E.g. how long does it take to improve port throughput, or build new container ships?<p>Translating to the real world, think every ship stuck at the port removes another ship/containers from being able to pick up new goods which creates a self reinforcing problem.<p>Or thought another way, if the port can only unload 10,000 containers a day, and 20,000 containers a day are showing up, the number of backlogged containers will increase linearly with time.<p>Just yesterday we hit a record number of ships backlogged at the CA port, so I suspect this is exactly the situation we're in.<p>The free market will eventually solve by either supply throughput breakthroughs, or prices continuing to rise until demand destruction kicks in.<p>I want to lay a few stats out here. Retail sales has been ~20% elevated from 2019 levels since the pandemic started, primarily due to government benefits/stimulus checks.<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS</a><p>Some is due to spending habits changing, but that's likely a smaller portion.<p>Check real personal income over the course of the pandemic.<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI</a><p>Enhanced UI has ended, but it seems consumers are relying on credit now to maintain the same level of spending. It's not clear how long this will last, but it could be months, judging by the consumer loan data here.<p><a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CONSUMER" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CONSUMER</a><p>Note that many consumers paid off debts with the stimulus, is why this chart dips at the end. But we're quickly climbing back. Given lower interest rates, it's likely this can persist a few more months at current trend.<p>I suspect this will end organically whenever consumer credit is maxed out, and demand falls. But at the same time, wages are increasing fairly rapidly now... Is it possible higher wages can continue to support this new level of demand?<p>Probably in part, but not entirely.