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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

125 点作者 zerotosixty超过 3 年前
Just curious what kind of predictions you have for the upcoming years 2022, 2023, 2024.<p>I think the obvious one would be the EV wars. Also the delayed shipping dates for those vehicles. IE: If you order an EV truck now you wont get it until 2024.<p>Hopefully staying remote and rent not going up, but one can only hope...

73 条评论

uejfiweun超过 3 年前
- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again.<p>- The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices.<p>- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven&#x27;t seen since the 1970s.<p>- Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom&#x2F;bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up.<p>- Mainly due to supply issues, we won&#x27;t get a taste of any AR&#x2F;VR metaverse type stuff next year. There will be a lot of hype-laden news articles about it, but nobody will actually live this future yet.<p>- Nothing will happen in China with Evergrande or any of these other companies. Nor will China invade Taiwan (yet).<p>- The &quot;lie-flat&quot; movement massively picks up. People don&#x27;t realize how widespread this sentiment is in Gen Z, which doesn&#x27;t need excessive consumerism to be happy, all they need is a computer. It is unclear what effects this will have on the economy.
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AstroDogCatcher超过 3 年前
In the UK: Covid will dimish in importance enough for people to disentangle the negative consequences of Brexit, leading to widespread use of the Pikachu shocked face meme. Scottish independence will take a step forward, with a new referendum scheduled for 2023.<p>At least one company (probably Apple) will exceed $4T market cap, current &gt;$1T companies will all pass at least one more trillion milestone. No new companies will break $1T besides those already there.<p>Tax rules will come into effect across Europe rendering crypto&#x2F;NFTs unattractive. The market will crash then rebound, but coin values will end up roughly where they are right now.<p>Russian troops will be invited into Belarus to formally support defence efforts, increasing tension with the EU.<p>The Nord Stream 2 pipeline will become operational, but only after rocketing gas prices stir minor unrest in western Europe.<p>Chinese naval aggression will lead to a war of words with Japan but no direct conflict, but at least one weaker neighbour will lose fishermen or naval personnel in a small skirmish. The international community will continue to do nothing.<p>Taiwanese airspace will be entered by Chinese jets at least once a month, but no shots will be fired.<p>Genome sequencing will become an &quot;optional&quot; way to &quot;reduce&quot; health insurance premiums in the US. Sequencing of the wider population in Europe will be explored in more detail than previously, but not progress due to privacy debates.
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h2odragon超过 3 年前
Large, squid like aliens will show up and announce they have been grooming humanity for the last 4,000 or so years to manufacture and repair microelectronics for them.
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l33tbro超过 3 年前
I think the fake &#x27;inflation&#x27; we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment.<p>Remote work is here to stay.<p>Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now).<p>Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was.<p>The culture wars will continue humming away in the foreground, distracting us from our declining quality of life and the transfer of wealth from the lower and middle classes taking place before our eyes.<p>Overall, it will get worse as our current predicament perhaps needs to.
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hereforphone超过 3 年前
Hackernews comments will continue to devolve and become more Reddit-like on the whole. Someone will begin working on an alternative that will make them rich in 2024.
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inglor_cz超过 3 年前
Countries will look for viable Small Modular Reactor designs that aren&#x27;t too expensive. If they succeed, it will kickstart a huge nuclear renaissance and whoever can supply the finished reactors fast will make a lot of money on it. If not, the entire technology will probably be dead (in the civilian sector) forever.<p>Some of the longevity trials will show significant reduction of epigenetic age in humans. I am almost sure that TRIIM-X will. That is pretty close to the first flight of the Wright brothers, only in the anti-aging field.<p>During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard.<p>We might have a new round of Yellow Vests in Europe if consumer prices of electricity and fuels go up again. If such protests really happen, governments will crack down on social networks heavy-handedly.<p>The digital giants will open up their app stores voluntarily to escape antitrust prosecution.
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reaperducer超过 3 年前
- Companies that are buying up large swaths of real estate figure out that &quot;money pit&quot; is a real thing, and owning a thousand houses isn&#x27;t a good way to make hard cash. They start merging with one another to stave off a crash.<p>- A new social media company starts to gain traction. Because that&#x27;s what happens every few years.<p>- People start unloading their streaming subscriptions when they realize that for many people, they cost more than cable or satellite. But rather than go back to the other delivery methods, they just consume less video. Streaming companies start to cannibalize one another, and set up for merging.<p>- My wife will continue to complain about her neck pain, but refuse to stop scrolling through Instagram hunched over on the toilet. She will continue to try to hide this from me.
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paulpauper超过 3 年前
My heuristic is to extend pre-2022 trends outward:<p>Higher stock market even though everyone keeps calling it a bubble<p>More inflation, but not as much gain in the CPI as 2021<p>Strong GDP growth, same for corporate profits<p>Big tech gets bigger; Facebook, Tesla , Amazon, Google Microsoft stock keep going up.<p>No anti-trust action against big tech companies<p>No bursting of &#x27;higher ed bubble&#x27; despite Covid<p>US dollar continues to be strong<p>Bezos, Musk remain richest men alive<p>Biden wealth tax fails<p>Fed raises rates maybe twice; bond market and stock market unperturbed<p>Higher real estate prices in spite of insistence of it being a bubble<p>More political division and unrest online, people are angrier than ever at each other online<p>Covid never goes away although daily case counts will remain below 2021 highs
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krapp超过 3 年前
previously (compiled by csomar here[0]):<p>[0]2021: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=25594068" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=25594068</a><p>2020: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=21802596" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=21802596</a><p>2019: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=18753859" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=18753859</a><p>2018: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=16007988" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=16007988</a><p>2016: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=10809767" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=10809767</a><p>2015: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=8822723" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=8822723</a><p>2014: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=6994370" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=6994370</a><p>2012: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=3395201" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=3395201</a><p>2011: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1970023" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1970023</a><p>2010: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1025681" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1025681</a><p>And predictions for the decade:<p>2020s: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=21941278" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=21941278</a><p>2010s: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1025681" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1025681</a>
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throwaway4good超过 3 年前
The companies that are double or triple ordering this year, in fear of suppliers not delivering, are going to get a lot of stuff in 2022. In other words, the shortages and empty shells will be followed by fire sales and stories of companies destroying their inventories.
LeoPanthera超过 3 年前
* Queen Elizabeth II will die, prompting complaints about how much coverage the BBC will give the event.<p>* A large earthquake (&gt;6) in the SF Bay Area.<p>* COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules.<p>* A large &quot;stablecoin&quot; will crash but the crypto market will (unfortunately, probably) recover reasonably quickly.<p>* The NFT craze will not persist.<p>* In the US, the GOP will make significant political gains primarily through gerrymandering.
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kbob超过 3 年前
Satoshi Nakamoto will be revealed to be an extraterrestrial info-warrior sent to destroy humanity by tricking us into turning all our carbon fuels into random numbers. This will happen sometime in April.
5F7bGnd6fWJ66xN超过 3 年前
Inflation rate would be worse than expected, between 7-10%<p>Fed will raise rates after mid-term only.<p>Stock market will not crash until after Fed raises rates<p>Supply chain bottlenecks will continue into 2023<p>FAANG will continue to grow bigger. Regulation will not be finalized.<p>SaaS book will falter as FAANG make SaaS business models a feature.<p>M&amp;A of SaaS companies being absorbed into FAANGs will happen<p>Cloud will move to the Edge. 5G enabled devices will gather traction.<p>CRIPSR related news will make more headlines<p>People will get bored of Metaverse related news<p>Roblox will become bigger<p>Infrastructure and Manufacturing in US will become cool again<p>Internet will become more balkanized globally<p>People will come back to offices. Remote workers will be disadvantaged<p>COVID will die out before Q2 2022
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webmaven超过 3 年前
People will make a big deal about a date that is all zeros and twos. Eg. 02&#x2F;02&#x2F;2022 or 02&#x2F;20&#x2F;2022 or some other variation.<p>Other people will make fun of weird Murrican date ordering and propose some other date.<p>Arguments will be had about which datetime(s) should be considered palindromic given the different orderings, or some such nonsense.
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foobarbaz33超过 3 年前
Housing price collapse in the USA. It will be the 2008 collapse all over again. Everyone is predicting further increases with the same gusto as someone living in 2006. And they may be right for a time. But the stilts these home prices are walking on are even taller and shakier than they were in 2006 when everyone was sure housing was up up up forever.<p>There&#x27;s bunch of foreclosures slated for 2022 that were put on hold due to covid. Something is going to pop, and it will pop hard.
simonblack超过 3 年前
The most important event looming, and it may be as early as 2022, but no further away than 2025, is a hot war between the West (5 eyes, Europe, Japan) and one or more of China, Russia, Iran.<p>That war will be so major that its onset will completely change all sorts of other things like chip availability, metals availability, motor vehicle production, phone sales, computer sales, house prices, etc, etc, etc.
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nikivi超过 3 年前
I hope&#x2F;think more countries will start to compete for remote workers and add more favorable policies to have them move. Like Portugal.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;tomazstolfa&#x2F;status&#x2F;1454441367359430663" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;tomazstolfa&#x2F;status&#x2F;1454441367359430663</a>
frontman1988超过 3 年前
A physical in ear device which does real time translation of almost all major languages.<p>A successful drone assassination of a world leader by terrorists.<p>Massive explosion in international tourism at some point.<p>Great leaps in biotechnology which has surprising implications.<p>Increasing geopolitical tensions due to a flexing China and insecure America.
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joshcarr超过 3 年前
They&#x27;re gonna find intelligent life up there on the moon And The Canterbury Tales will shoot up to the top of the best-seller list And stay there for twenty-seven weeks And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league And the Tampa Bay Bucs will make it all the way through January<p>The stars are gonna spell out the answers to tomorrow&#x27;s crosswords And the Phillips Corporation will admit that they&#x27;ve made an awful mistake And Bill Gates will single-handedly spearhead the Heaven 17 revival And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league And the Tampa Bay Bucs will take it all the way to the top<p>And I will love you again I will love you like I used to
t0bia_s超过 3 年前
Trust of public in governments and media fall dawn rapidly, because people will get more angry and tired of constant restrictions, massive surveillance and rising prices of everything. Eventually civil war here and there. Tendencies of green pass and deals will fall, because people simple will not be rich that much to afford &quot;care to nature&quot;, priorities will be more focused on survive (financially, mentally, physically...). Later (probably not 2022) being off-line and living in communities became new way of living.
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KhoomeiK超过 3 年前
Sorta predictions, sorta hopes...<p>GPT-4 or another huge language model like it will be released, and we will see diminishing returns continue to plateau.<p>Graph-based approaches in NLP will continue to grow in significance, with KGs, ontologies, and semantic graphs seeing growing adoption for their interpretability.<p>Model robustness in ML will probably remain a significant obstacle to productionization, holding back use-cases that need high reliability e.g. self-driving and front-facing chatbots.<p>Reinforcement Learning may see increased research focus for applications in NLP and user interaction.
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marginalia_nu超过 3 年前
Social media-reality and outside-your-window reality will finally diverge so much people will begin to notice.
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binarynate超过 3 年前
- Apple will release its VR headset, significantly boosting the already growing interest in XR for entertainment and productivity. Combined with Meta&#x27;s developments and marketing, the concept of the &quot;metaverse&quot; will enter average Americans&#x27; lexicon, but it will be overhyped relative to its current maturity level. However, this new hardware and increased interest and will spur real innovation and commerce, resulting in new applications and companies that will have a significant impact years in the future.<p>- AR headsets will still to be too expensive for consumers, but Microsoft&#x27;s Hololens 2 will continue to see adoption for high-end industrial applications.<p>- Society will continue transitioning toward living with Covid as an endemic disease, and as the severity of outbreaks decrease, life will continue its slow approach back to normalcy.<p>- The S&amp;P 500 will see modest gains with the tech sector doing particularly well.
Qem超过 3 年前
- Gross&#x27; proposal to remove the GIL from Python is accepted;<p>- Speculative Inlining Smalltalk Architecture (Sista) for the Cog VM gets finished. Squeak and Pharo become much faster;<p>- Existence of a massive 9th planet in the outer solar system is confirmed. Women go on demonstrations so the IAU gives it a female name. Name of African deity chosen, Yemọja, a major water spirit from the Yoruba religion;<p>- China announces deadlines for a manned mission to the Moon;<p>- Kamala Harris becomes first female US president, after Joe Biden passes away;<p>- WHO announces discovery of Covid-19 Omega strain;<p>- Whistleblower reveals NSA is collecting the bookmarks, passwords, ID numbers and passport numbers stolen by Microsoft Edge, as revealed in <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.schneier.com&#x2F;blog&#x2F;archives&#x2F;2021&#x2F;11&#x2F;is-microsoft-stealing-peoples-bookmarks.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.schneier.com&#x2F;blog&#x2F;archives&#x2F;2021&#x2F;11&#x2F;is-microsoft-...</a>
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tmaly超过 3 年前
Focus on Covid will pivot to smallpox or something else.<p>Governments will crack down on NFTs with new regulation.<p>Volatility in the financial markets.<p>Some type of reaction to price increases in the US.<p>New types of remote jobs will emerge as technology matures around remote learning. Think Mesh for MS teams
CyanLite4超过 3 年前
2022 starts the Roaring 20s. Covid takes a backseat as new therapeutics become available. Remote work trend allows mass migration out of the Western states and into more rural areas.<p>Prices and employment stabilize as the Fed tapers QE.<p>TikTok launches new Metaverse product.<p>Biden steps down to allow for Kamala to take over.<p>Lebron James wins one final NBA championship and retires. Patriots return to win the Super Bowl and Alabama wins another College football championship.
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throwaway4good超过 3 年前
Huawei&#x2F;HiSilicon will start producing highend chips again, fabbed outside the reach of US sanctions. Probably first the chips sitting inside their 5G base stations.<p>This will mark a turning point in the US-China tech war.
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gr1zzlybe4r超过 3 年前
Covid-19 will continue into Covid-22 (as in the same virus into 2022, not a new virus entirely).<p>Return to office will tick up more than expected<p>City -&gt; Suburbs&#x2F;Rural will revert back to pre-covid trend of Suburbs&#x2F;Rural -&gt; City
vemodalen超过 3 年前
- Malware crypto coin(s) will be created.<p>- James Webb telescope will miss its desired orbit.<p>- Brain drain in Australia.<p>- EU will not figure out its daylight savings issue.<p>- Fields medal will award another woman maybe Maryna Viazovska or Kaisa Matomäki<p>-An explicit example will be found (e.g. Merten&#x27;s or Skewes&#x27;s)<p>- World cup will be one of the biggest sport disasters.<p>- A heat dome near the Baltic Sea.<p>- Seeing Jim Morrison&#x27;s work is in public domain (2022) for Canada &amp; NZ. Causes the UK to pressure these two to switch to +70 policy before J. R. R. Tolkien works become public (2024).<p>-Covid causes more places to consider &quot;die with dignity&quot; policies.
RickJWagner超过 3 年前
Continued Covid battles until it eventually becomes something like the flu.<p>In American politics, the pendulum swings back the other way and &#x27;red&#x27; politicians defeat &#x27;blue&#x27; politicians.<p>Inflation continues. Interest rates rise.<p>The Great Resignation continues until cash reserves are dried up and rising prices mandate people have a source of income. At that point, jobs become a little harder to get. Generally tough economic times.<p>Containerization continues to dominate IT headlines. This results in a fertile job market for IT practitioners.
kaycebasques超过 3 年前
On Good Judgment Open there is a question about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in January 2022. I have a blog post [1] tracking my forecast of this event. Currently I have the odds at:<p>* 0% chance the rate will be lower<p>* 98% chance the rate will be the same<p>* 2% chance the rate will be higher<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;kayce.basqu.es&#x2F;bets&#x2F;january-2022-fed-funds-rate&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;kayce.basqu.es&#x2F;bets&#x2F;january-2022-fed-funds-rate&#x2F;</a>
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quickthrower2超过 3 年前
Bitcoin bull due to inflation worries and bitcoin lack of intrinsic value means the only metric is FOMO, so if it goes up it goes up more. To stabilise a high price long term you’d need additional countries adopting it, and they need to fix the climate impact.<p>Eventually Bitcoin will be a lacklustre investment like gold. Essentially cash-like but deflationary at heart. That’s if it succeeds. Or it will implode to nothing!
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nicbou超过 3 年前
Politics: The environment will get a bigger slice of the political discussion, but nothing major will come out of it. North America will put everything on electric cars while neglecting everything else. Europe will do a lot more. The rest of the world won&#x27;t do anything.<p>COVID: Governments will tighten the screws on unvaccinated people and nudge them agressively towards vaccination or isolation. It will make some people uneasy, and others will cheer for it.<p>Entertainment: Adam Driver will be cast in every blockbuster, sometimes more than once.<p>Technology: Big tech will build more of their own chips, mostly ARM chips. The Metaverse will fail to excite the crowd. The EU will isssue billion dollar antitrust fines.
miki_tyler超过 3 年前
2022 is the year when the internet is going to morph, from an almost 100% human generated content to a 100% machine generated content.
onlyrealcuzzo超过 3 年前
CPI &amp; PPI will remain high.<p>Despite that, central banks won&#x27;t meaningfully tapper or raise rates (some have already started, and more will try, but soon they will revert to low&#x2F;current rates).<p>Inequality will continue to get worse.<p>Despite that, wealth will not get taxed.<p>The Great Resignation will not happen (even though we&#x27;re told it already is&#x2F;has happened).
testplzignore超过 3 年前
Prince Charles will die, followed shortly after by the Queen. King William will begin the process of ending the British monarchy.<p>Chris Pratt will be in the highest-grossing English-language film.<p>A novel virus worse than Covid will arise, and humanity will succeed in containing it, but at great cost.<p>Tampa Bay will lose in the Super Bowl.
tuatoru超过 3 年前
Covid-19 is recognised as being endemic (here to stay).<p>Inconvenient behavioural changes like mask wearinng taper off. Proof of recent vaccination will still be required in public gathering places, and laws will be passed making vaccination mandatory in many occupations. Covid vaccination will be combined with influenza vaccination.<p>The realisation will become widespread that working age population in the developed world and East and South-east Asia is on a 20-year decline. (Government policy people already know this.) It won&#x27;t change attitudes to immigration.<p>(Wishful thinking) The realisation will sink in that decarbonising electricity (and part of road transport) is only one-third of the job, and doing the other two-thirds will cost approximately 20 times as much, not twice as much. Everyone resolves to do it anyway.<p>The idea of global dimming (spraying sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere) to cool down the planet will go mainstream and be seriously planned.<p>Deep learning will be acknowledged as a dead end, but there will be no promising replacement.<p>Autonomous, low-speed road-going goods delivery vehicles will be trialed in an area being over 25% of the outer, suburban area of one major (top 150) North American city starting in or after &#x27;24.<p>Russia will continue its &quot;North Korea&quot; geo-political strategy (do crazy things, including actions that might harm its own interests. This is straight out of the game theory textbooks).
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lma21超过 3 年前
- tensions will rise between EU, the US (along with the UK and Australia), and China leading to more supply chain issues.<p>- crypto crash of 2022. Ethereum will switch to PoS, leading to a global wide sale of GPUs and miners are no longer a thing.<p>- maybe the stock market will crash similarly to 2022.
nolawi89超过 3 年前
It will be exactly the same as 2021; covid cycles, market will be ok, crypto will fluctuate, inflation will rise slowly, interest rate will stay the same. Earth will continue to suffer with global warming. People are displaced with fires, floods and sea levels. Civil unrest in many poor countries as autocrats seize more power. And finally Trump will still think he can convince us he won the election, it wont be on twitter
AnimalMuppet超过 3 年前
Rent going up. I think that one&#x27;s pretty safe.<p>Remote work will continue - maybe not as strong as during the lockdowns, but still much stronger than in 2019.<p>Covid will continue to be a problem. By the end of 2022, we won&#x27;t be at a &quot;new normal&quot; that is any different from where we currently are. There will still be a war about mask mandates and vaccine mandates and vaccine booster mandates.<p>The 2022 elections will be <i>very</i> vicious, maybe even marked by violence, but in the end the Republicans will control at least one branch of Congress, most likely both.<p>There will be violence associated with the 2024 election cycle.<p>Oh, you wanted tech predictions?<p>GPT-3 continues to impress, but has a much harder time turning into something useful. The &quot;doesn&#x27;t actually understand what it&#x27;s saying&quot; problem is too big to fix. Systems that actually <i>do</i> understand and then generate appropriate text are stronger, but cannot be created by GPT-3-like methods.<p>We&#x27;ll still mostly be on IPv4.<p>Nothing dramatic changes in chips or fabs. Nothing dramatic changes in self-driving vehicles. There will be some cool stuff in medical, though. Between Alzheimer&#x27;s and cancer, there will be at least one major advance.
bewestphal超过 3 年前
- Big loans will be transacted in cryptocurrency due to concerns about inflation. This will become more commonplace.<p>- Large scale ransoms and hacks will continue. Driving fear to take cybersecurity more seriously.<p>- Distrust in mainstream media outlets will push users to siloed echo chamber platforms. Lower barriers to entry to develop the tech behind the platforms will allow them to grow rapidly.<p>- The metaverse will not get adoption but the signs of being the future of entertainment will be there.<p>- A significant breakthrough for brain computer interfaces will be released for gaming. (See Gabe Newell interview) Every big company starts racing to research BCI tech.<p>- EV startups productionizing for the first time will experience reliability and scalability issues. Tesla’s lead in industry will be apparent but competitors will start closing the gap.
lvass超过 3 年前
The first major Assassination Politics[0] event, based on decentralized prediction markets.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cryptome.org&#x2F;ap.htm" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cryptome.org&#x2F;ap.htm</a>
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niknoble超过 3 年前
- Unity Software will hit $400 per share.<p>- The first serious mass-market VR haptics glove will be announced. By the end of the decade, most newly purchased consumer VR headsets will use haptic gloves instead of controllers.<p>- At some point during the year, SpaceX&#x27;s Starship will reach orbit and then land successfully, but SpaceX will not attempt to send anything to Mars yet.<p>- Another machine learning model will go viral, generating a similar amount of excitement as GPT-3.<p>- Most people will still be wearing masks in Bay Area grocery stores at the end of the year.<p>- In 2022 or 2023, a disease that is not Covid will sweep through the world. The phrase &quot;twin pandemics&quot; will emerge and become popular.<p>- Republicans will win big in U.S. midterm elections.<p>- US media outlets will identify a surge in far right, nationalist sentiment among young people, with Nick Fuentes being a central figure.<p>- Crypto will become politicized. By the end of the year, it will be universally felt that support for crypto suggests right-wing sentiment.
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meremortals超过 3 年前
There will be more slow &quot;disclosure&quot; of UFO&#x2F;UAP life
kaycebasques超过 3 年前
I would love for this to become a regular thing on HN. And it would be even more wonderful if we had a standard template where we expressed our predictions in probabilities.
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bjourne超过 3 年前
Record-breaking heatwaves in 2022. The same in 2023 and 2024.
mg超过 3 年前
I wouldn&#x27;t be surprised if Tesla gets their self driving software to a human level within the next 5 years. And that this will be a huge wake-up call for mankind. To think about the future in the face of AI.<p>I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember.<p>If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start thinking about how the world will look like when everything is automated. This will be a huge challenge and adventure.
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tamaharbor超过 3 年前
NY Mets will be out of contention by early June.
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Geee超过 3 年前
The worst economic crisis that&#x27;s ever been seen. Global turmoil and revolts. USA splits in multiple countries.
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wantsanagent超过 3 年前
- Unsupervised pre-training of vision transformers goes mainstream<p>- An NFT platform reinvents DRM<p>- Apple teases AR devices (Late 22, spring 23)
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jmnicolas超过 3 年前
I know nobody care but in 2022 I will lose my job because France will mandate vaccination at work.
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svrourke超过 3 年前
Kamala will take over the presidency when Biden&#x27;s colonoscopy comes back with colon cancer.<p>Graphics cards will return to msrp prices.<p>Government action to fix container pileup issues (incentives for hiring more workers, penalties for containers in stacks for longer than x weeks) (it&#x27;s my understanding this a manufactured crisis to increase profits)<p>James Webb will observe proof of alien life nearby<p>Donbas will become part of Russia<p>North Korea will start modernizing and trying to rehab their image
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chris_hhh超过 3 年前
- Covid still a thing, but much greater geographic divergence of vaxed and non-vaxed areas, leading to political and economic turmoil in those areas &quot;left behind&quot; and most impacted (more fun from Trump counties). Folks find that WFH in rural areas isn&#x27;t all that great when everyone&#x27;s sick and your kids&#x27; school is always closed<p>- Because of push-back on supply chain and other issues, Biden and Harris are massively unpopular for 2022, which causes a greater split among Dems (similar to Howard Dean in 2002, who broke with CW to become popular). Perhaps it&#x27;s a young populist Dem who doesn&#x27;t talk about &quot;woke&quot; stuff but squarely focuses on the unrest caused by bad cops, bad protestors (including on the right), and bad econ policy<p>- It&#x27;s been predicted since forever, but a major revolution about Jan 6 and Trump, which the press won&#x27;t care about<p>- Meta as the new 5G; whole lot of hype but too bulky to be useful<p>- Unionizing begins to impact professional sector, as employers want employees back in the office as the labor market tightens<p>- As disenchanted people are sick of online conspiracies, a reformist Social Contract-like movement takes hold
carnitine超过 3 年前
Payment for order flow will be banned, to the detriment of retail investors.
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grahamlee超过 3 年前
Windows 11 and WSL2 will finally deliver the year of Linux on the desktop.
shagmin超过 3 年前
These are very loosely held convictions...<p>- COVID will still be here but be thought of a little more like the flu.<p>- There will be some devastating natural disasters that induce more people into taking climate change seriously.<p>- AI will slowly cover more ground into people&#x27;s lives.<p>- Cryptocurrencies will continue to be overhyped.<p>- US political tensions will continue to get worse.<p>- China will have domestic growing pains in the next few years, maybe cut back on growth or stir up some more regional tensions.<p>- Inflation will slowly give way to deflation and then the stock market is going to plateau or dip for some prolonged time.<p>- Conservatives will win control of congress in 2022 and the following 2 years will be a lame duck session.<p>- Trump or DeSantis is going to be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024.<p>- 2024 will be a really bad election for both parties<p>- Housing prices will continue to rise and not be affected by deflation and this will only get worse without significant and <i>good</i> government intervention.<p>- A black swan event or two mini black swan events that drastically affects a lot of other predictions.
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errantmind超过 3 年前
* The FED will do everything it can to avoid raising interest rates, while trying to convince everyone they might have to do it at some point<p>* Mandatory vaccination in the US will be struck down in the Supreme Court<p>* There will be increasing dissonance between people who think Covid is still a thing and people who stopped caring<p>* Gold will break $2000&#x2F;oz<p>* Cryptocurrency will continue to appreciate in value. NFTs will also still be around.. both making a lot of people on HN lose their sanity.<p>* A second country will announce accepting BTC as legal tender, driving a breakout in price. Several people on HN will post in the comments about how all cryptocurrency is a scam and trad-fi is better<p>* Young people will continue to &#x27;peace out&#x27; of the job market, viewing it as a game for suckers. Companies that can&#x27;t raise wages will increasingly go out of business.<p>* College applications submitted will decrease substantially nationwide<p>* &#x27;What happened in 1971?&#x27; will pop up even more on social media<p>* A hipster farming movement will gain nationwide attention
tfang17超过 3 年前
China will invade Taiwain.
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devin超过 3 年前
Title should be &quot;Ask HN: What are your* 2022 predictions?&quot;
chirau超过 3 年前
Bayern will win the UCL
readflaggedcomm超过 3 年前
Prices will rise, except lumber. Politicians will philander.
Tangokat超过 3 年前
- Cryptocurrency will experience a large drawdown (50%+) due to NFTs not being worth anything. They will recover and end next year higher than now. BTC at 80k+.<p>- Inflation is not transitory and the market will panic once the fed raises rates. They do not reverse their position like in 2018.<p>- Covid continues to be a thing. Stupid people who refuse vaccines and medicine continue to die in record numbers.<p>- China does not invade Taiwan and the China bubble does not pop. Everyone continues to be concerned.<p>- The metaverse will continue to not be a thing.<p>- A major breakthrough will happen in genomics, possibly related to aging.<p>- Elon Musk will commit 6 billion to end world hunger. Mostly for the lulz<p>- Significant legal troubles will arise for Facebook. Ultimately ending up splitting the company. This will make no difference to the social media issues.
timdaub超过 3 年前
- Someone will create an AI that can generate artificially and unnatural looking sequences of sound and images that will make humans mega horny because it&#x27;s hacking the human sexuality.<p>- The orange guy from the US will say something stupid<p>- Bitcoin<p>- People will not start liking Zuck more<p>- The rich will get richer<p>- In a final implosion Elon will say something so incredibly stupid that he&#x27;ll get canceled indefinitely<p>- Software devs become the new &quot;bankers&quot;. Everyone hates them.<p>- China will go full nationalism. Further evidence of genocide will be discovered<p>- COVID<p>- Self-driving cars will become the new norm but nobody gives a shit.<p>- Bikes are the new cars. Bike innovation incoming.<p>- Food delivery startups will cease to exist. Only the few that pay their workers super badly will continue to exist<p>- It&#x27;s getting hot in here.
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anthk超过 3 年前
- Solar powered devices get a boost against a fear on a blackout<p>- Thus, Rasberry Pi&#x27;s based MUD&#x27;s&#x2F;clients and light text games over web&#x2F;telnet&#x2F;ssh get a reissanance.<p>- COVID get worse in North-Pyrenees Europe, Spain will be used as the &quot;Gold standard&quot; on how to do the things well.<p>- Vaccines will be mandatory in German speaking countries as the magufos&#x2F;alt-medicine hipppies headed the then-current events really wrong.<p>- Network support will be flakey because of device&#x2F;chips&#x27; shortage, so &quot;offline first&quot; will be the motto then.<p>- Said that, Usenet&#x2F;Mail and similar asynchronous comms will come back soon.
mattwilsonn888超过 3 年前
Peace on Earth.
Fluid_Mechanics超过 3 年前
Killer Bees<p>Edit: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=x7ok5AV7ZrM" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=x7ok5AV7ZrM</a>
hereforphone超过 3 年前
- Donald Knuth will die<p>- Joe Biden will become unable to maintain office (due to age &#x2F; health related issues) and his VP will become president; many will theorize this was the plan all along<p>- People will settle down about COVID regardless of what happens. There will be more backlash as we continue to learn more about the vaccines (and require boosters at some currently undetermined interval)<p>- $SPY will lose 100+ points but regain that. Prices of goods and services will continue to spiral out of control
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ss108超过 3 年前
- Republicans will continue to make electoral gains because of a) Gerrymandering; b) the fact that Trump is no longer in the picture.<p>- Covid will be the same as it is right now; basically a non-factor for a lot of people except that certain spaces require them to wear masks in what feels like a very perfunctory manner.<p>- Stephen Breyer will die in the middle of the 2024 election campaign and, for whatever reason, the Senate will not be able to confirm someone to fill the vacancy in time...
ellis0n超过 3 年前
- Metaverses grows exponentially
dt123超过 3 年前
- Boris Johnson resigns or is institutionalised<p>- house prices in the UK increase by 10%<p>- Crypto is banned in the EU (and other places?) for environmental reasons<p>- Jeff Bezos will surpass 300bn USD in net worth<p>- A billionaire tax will be introduced in the US (only to be cancelled by Trump when he gets back in in 2024)
zvr超过 3 年前
My prediction: most of the predictions will be wrong.
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MrWiffles超过 3 年前
Ok, I&#x27;ll play.<p>- Rent and housing prices will rise far faster than inflation, leading to record numbers of both involuntary cohabitation and homelessness. Construction for affordable housing and non-luxury rent properties will not substantially increase, resulting in major economic upheaval in most metro areas, even relatively small ones.<p>- The Great Resignation and massive labor shortages will continue unabated, and will likely worsen sharply, driven by a pathological intransigence and outright delusional refusal to raise wages or improve working conditions. The lower middle class will be unable to afford the basic necessities of life - food and shelter - whether the work 80 hours or 2 hours a week, so why bother working at all?<p>- Congress will not raise the minimum wage. They might try to do something for the sake of optics, but everybody will already know it&#x27;ll be bullshit.<p>- Hoarding of wealth will worsen, driving stock portfolios dangerously high. This will trigger a massive market correction in the following years of historic proportions, potentially rivaling the 2008 collapse. Probably won&#x27;t be 1932 levels of bad, but might come close.<p>- Russia and China will put forward a geopolitical lie that the US is doomed and their economies are somehow oh so much better. Just look at our economic numbers! Yeah that&#x27;s recent, we just published that yesterday! Huh? What do you mean &quot;independent audit&quot;? What&#x27;s &quot;credible source&quot; mean? And don&#x27;t you dare mention that pesky &quot;free press&quot; nonsense. We have...places...for people like you.<p>- Patient-facing healthcare staff demand will rise even more sharply, as will their pay, and their amount of overworked hours, even beyond 2021&#x27;s hellscape of abuse. Record numbers of people in these roles will commit suicide, leading to fewer staff and further demoralizing an already exhausted staff in communities where this will happen.<p>- Government spending will drastically increase far beyond expectations as a necessary tourniquet for a hemmorhaging economy. The dollar&#x27;s value will continue to fall, ultimately stabilizing by Q4 as the Fed finally makes the hard call on policy.<p>- Right-wing conspiracy theories will continue to gain followers and popularity, driven substantially by continued efforts from malicious global adversaries, most notably Russia, who will seek to invade Georgia and forcibly annex it again if that division is enough to keep us paralyzed, unable to drop the hammer on them after the deed is done. This will further stress similarly declining conditions in the EU as they try to stabilize the situation.<p>- Remote work will increase in popularity, as will competition for remote jobs across all relevant economic sectors and roles. This will keep job seekers unemployed longer in spite of the labor shortage. It will also increase discrimination and create a false sense of entitlement for employers, making them feel somewhat as if they once again have all the power. Expect pay and working conditions for professional roles to improve as employers try to compete for &quot;the best&quot; throughout the <i>nation</i>, not just their area(s).<p>- The catch for remote work? Your privacy - your dignity - will be the price you have to pay if you want that better job (now necessary just to survive since rent is so much higher). Employers will drastically increase workplace performance monitoring to the point of absurd, abusive, and even downright evil. Those who refuse to give in will be unemployed longer than those who capitulate, creating a strong preference for &quot;easy to abuse&quot; as a major, if not top, hiring criteria, above qualifications, especially among large corporations. Corporate so-called &quot;values&quot; will be increasingly viewed as outright lies.<p>- At least 10 people who read this comment will be dead inside of one year due to this economic upheaval. Many more will die nationwide, a frighteningly record number of them being children.<p>- Costs for healthcare, particularly mental health, will rise faster than inflation and faster than costs to provide. Antidepressants and other psychiatric medications will be prescribed in record numbers, even beyond 2021&#x27;s standards. Prices for these medications, even old ones, will sharply increase as a result. Expect your co-pay and deductible to go up, and your available formulary to be heavily revised to your detriment. Insurers will not be held accountable.<p>- Antitrust and privacy protection efforts will universally stall, and most will die out. Google, Facebook, and their ilk won&#x27;t face justice any time soon. This means their abuses of human rights and privacy will not only continue, but get worse. Much worse.<p>- Violent crime will increase drastically. Upper-middle-class white families will feel fear for their safety and their lives for the first time, and not all of us will handle it well. Expect gun sales, particularly to those who shouldn&#x27;t have them, to increase, and while most will eventually get it together, eventually somebody&#x27;s going to get killed by an untrained gun owner who open-carries, now legally, purely out of fear. This will lead to further calls for gun control that will go without meaningful reform, yet again.<p>---<p>COVID didn&#x27;t cause all this, it was just the catalyst, the proverbial straw that broke the camel&#x27;s back. This perfect storm has been brewing for decades in Washington&#x27;s cesspool of greed, arrogance and sociopathic narcissism that only Ivy league, Wall Street, military-industrialist elitists could manage to foul up this badly. This has been a long time coming, and it&#x27;s not your Trump-supporting neighbor&#x27;s fault any more than it is the Black Lives Matter guy&#x27;s across the street. We&#x27;re all being used, abused and lied to, and without a way to enforce consequences for those who&#x27;ve put themselves above the welfare of this country that we&#x27;ve entrusted them with, it won&#x27;t change. A violent revolution is doomed to failure - how can you bring freedom and hope with a blood-soaked sword? - but some form of non-violent, powerful action will happen by 2050, probably sooner.<p>---<p>America has been through worse and triumphed before. We can do it again! This is not the end at all, but the painful moment of change in an ongoing cycle of birth, death and rebirth. This is where the ascended phoenix catches fire and burns, falling to ash below. And it&#x27;s going to be hard. Not everyone who reads this post will live to see 2023. But don&#x27;t give up, because that phoenix will absolutely rise again, and we&#x27;re going to need you - your help, your passion, your joy and heart - to make our mutual moment in the sun last longer this time &#x27;round.<p>It&#x27;s always darkest just before dawn.<p>...but there is <i>always</i> a dawn. Just make sure you&#x27;re still around to see it. Because you damn well deserve it. And because future generations deserve it too.
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mikewarot超过 3 年前
Covid will continue to decimate the workforce, societal awareness of the cruel after-effects begins to take shape in 2022. Life expectancy will fall sharply for the next decade, especially in United States.<p>Tether will implode at some point, taking Bitcoin down at least 95% for a few weeks or months, it eventually recovers and keeps rising.<p>A major cyberattack takes down the US power grid for a week in the Summer of 2023 in at least one major US city.<p>September 11, 2023, coordinated terrorist attacks on power substations disrupt the grid across the United States, millions lose power, and it becomes apparent that many won&#x27;t have electricity for months, or years, as our supply chain can&#x27;t make replacement gear fast enough.<p>Thanksgiving 2023, China takes back Formosa (previously known as Taiwan), and the US, still reeling from supply shortages, will have no choice but to accept this with only loud protests.<p>2024 - The US dollar loses its global reserve currency status. The standard of living in the United States precipitously falls. A new political party sweeps into power in the fall elections. This party promises to implement ranked choice voting, make lobbyists illegal, fully fund the IRS, and raise income taxes on the rich to their 1950 levels. A one time 33% tax&#x2F;amnesty is offered to those are willing to bring their assets back into the US, a substantial savings from the new rates.<p>2025 - Because imports are suddenly expensive, the United States embarks on a reconstruction of its manufacturing sector. Tax incentives are given to small businesses, and there is a strong push to support maker spaces in public libraries.