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Ask HN: Effects of Covid Vaccination on R0?

2 点作者 complexworld超过 3 年前
I searched for medical studies on how vaccination affects the spread of COVID-19 (aka R0). But it has been surprisingly hard to find good information!<p>I&#x27;m having a discussion about vaccination with a family member, and I&#x27;d like to have some evidence that I can show them.

2 条评论

aurizon超过 3 年前
The R number is a complex beast. When viruses reproduce they are in race with their own death - the immune system is in a counter race, to neutralise all loose virus particles in the blood and to kill all the cells making particles. If you have been vaccinated or have survived the virus you will mostly have a mild case, your immune system wins. A person with no vaccination or immunity has to raise his immune antigen levels ASAP to be able to kill new viruses and the cells that make them so he quells the infection. If not, he is at risk of death. Death via Covid comes in many ways. All the antigenic warfare creates a huge burden of dead cells, fragmented viruses and cellular innards - all in the blood stream creating many destructive situations. You may have heard of the Covid cascade, a cytokine storm induced by the interactions of these cellular by products. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thelancet.com&#x2F;journals&#x2F;lanres&#x2F;article&#x2F;PIIS2213-2600(20)30216-2&#x2F;fulltext" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thelancet.com&#x2F;journals&#x2F;lanres&#x2F;article&#x2F;PIIS2213-2...</a><p>I said earlier that the virus was in a race, well it is, and it is a badly run and badly maintained factory. If the viral RNA used only perfect virus parts, and used them in the exact numbers needed for every stage - all the viruses would be infective. In truth, some people say less that 10% of the viruses made are correctly made and are infective - this varies with the virus. Measles virus make infective virus particles over 90% of the time = a very high R0, almost 20. A virus below 1 will die out. The first covid was about 2 to 2.5. The new Delta variant is said to be around 15. So more perfect particles coupled with a more efficient viral factory = the highest possible R0<p>There is an old saying, the wind my tear and the wind may roar, but you will never drown on Lac St Pierre - so long as you stay on the shore, that applies to covid. Get vaccinated, wear a mask, avoid groups&#x2F;crowds etc. We criticise China, but their attention to isolation in detail has allowed them to crush the infection. These whining idiots of anti vaxxers&#x2F;maskers - they are going to drown in the virus - unless they stay on the shore. That is from the Wreck of the Julie Plante - a French Canadian poem in argot. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.poemhunter.com&#x2F;poem&#x2F;the-wreck-of-the-julie-plante-a-legend-of-lac-st&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.poemhunter.com&#x2F;poem&#x2F;the-wreck-of-the-julie-plant...</a>
评论 #29437799 未加载
jstx1超过 3 年前
If I were you, I would look at efficacy and effectiveness of the vaccines. The effect on R0 is more difficult to estimate because you can&#x27;t run a controlled study on it and you have a bunch of confounding factors.
评论 #29437759 未加载