TE
科技回声
首页24小时热榜最新最佳问答展示工作
GitHubTwitter
首页

科技回声

基于 Next.js 构建的科技新闻平台,提供全球科技新闻和讨论内容。

GitHubTwitter

首页

首页最新最佳问答展示工作

资源链接

HackerNews API原版 HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 科技回声. 版权所有。

Ask HN: Is it me or are we entering an ARM era?

28 点作者 twelvenmonkeys超过 3 年前
With the Macbook M1, billions of smartphones running ARM and less and less sales of Intel chips, will we see the sudden rise of Linux and Windows desktops &#x2F; laptops also switching to ARM?<p>Is x86 dead?

18 条评论

gjsman-1000超过 3 年前
&quot;... 5 years from now everyone will be running free GNU on their 200 MIPS, 64M SPARCstation-5.&quot;<p>- Andrew Tanenbaum arguing with Linus Torvalds in 1992 that Linux was obsolete because it was (at the time) built only for x86, and that x86 was dead.
评论 #29606561 未加载
评论 #29607772 未加载
评论 #29612406 未加载
评论 #29608012 未加载
Matthias247超过 3 年前
We have entered it around 15 years ago, when the majority of custom embedded architectures started to be replaced with ARM cores (around the ARM7 timeframe) and when ARM application processores (ARM9, Cortex A) first showed up.<p>The current transition is more about some more PCs and servers also considering to use ARM.<p>I don&#x27;t think x86 is dead. As long as x86 CPU manufacturers can keep up on pricing, performance and power consumption it will stay alive. And there&#x27;s a lot more to that race than just the instruction set. Intel had a lot of weak years, but AMD showed that x86 doesn&#x27;t have to stagnate.
caslon超过 3 年前
This comment section shows absolute delusion. x86 isn&#x27;t dead, and there are more x86 chips sold every year. ISAs are not and have never been a zero sum game, and especially in the Windows space, x86-compatible is here to stay for a long time.<p>Apple&#x27;s transition to ARM worked because they have absolute control over their ecosystem. This is the same reason the PPC-Intel transition worked; they were able to destroy all of the wonderful lineage of PPC Mac software in <i>two</i> releases (Tiger, Lion).<p>Microsoft does not.<p>I don&#x27;t like x86_64 either, and I also don&#x27;t use Microsoft, but there&#x27;s hope and there&#x27;s delusion. It still has a lot of life in it, unfortunately.
xt00超过 3 年前
I think most people understand that ARM means more than just &quot;ARM vs. x86&quot;, its much more of an economic and control play than an architecture play. Sure from the people who end up wanting to use the chips its all about that, but from the companies that buy x86 chips from Intel or AMD, they are willing to spend their R&amp;D money to get something that meets their needs.<p>Personally I would chalk this up to chip companies doing what is called &quot;value based selling&quot;.. instead of saying, hey how much do we need as a company to be profitable at a level we are happy with, to continue to invest in our tech, grow and pursue high end goals, they basically said, hey.. how much is this chip worth to the customer? And, if we buy up all of our rivals such that they essentially have zero options besides us, then we can charge essentially whatever we want to charge -- or maintain our current pricing with no hope for the customer to get a price improvement over time.<p>When you get to be the size of the big trillion dollar tech companies, you say, ok yea, I&#x27;m tired of this game where you spend lots of time trying to figure out how much money I make from your chips and basing your pricing on that.. I&#x27;ll just make the chips myself...
asgeirn超过 3 年前
Hardly.<p>- Both Playstation 5 and Xbox Series X use x86 processors.<p>- MacBook market share is around 10%, so the majority of new laptops are still x86.<p>- The majority of cloud compute instances are also x86.
评论 #29607916 未加载
评论 #29609929 未加载
warrenm超过 3 年前
x86[-64] has its place (<i>especially</i> in &quot;legacy&quot; applications that have been running on it for running on half a century)<p>ARM has its place<p>RISC-V has its place<p>Along with myriad other architectures out there
评论 #29612373 未加载
评论 #29606406 未加载
smoldesu超过 3 年前
x86 isn&#x27;t dead, in the same way the ARM wasn&#x27;t dead when the Raspberry Pi existed. Until we see 5nm x86 chips, it&#x27;s going to be awfully hard to evaluate just how large of a lead ARM has on the desktop. And that&#x27;s before we get to the real sticking points; legacy software. x86 is really, really good at maintaining backwards compatibility, and even has a number of objective leads over ARM in it&#x27;s current iteration (for example, native SIMD beats the pants off NEON any day of the week). For ARM to claim supremacy, it&#x27;s going to need to run the same software that x86 does, without overhead. Simply due to the difference in architecture, that&#x27;s going to be astronomically difficult.<p>A more likely theory is that we&#x27;ve now entered the big.LITTLE era. Intel has already begun to pivot their desktop line to the big.LITTLE design, and while AMD&#x27;s next line won&#x27;t follow suit, they&#x27;ve discussed bringing the architecture to the CPUs after that. x86 has still got quite a bit of gas left in the tank, and now that RISC-V is getting taped out, a lot of people are starting to realize that a more modular approach to RISC CPUs is probably smarter than how ARM exists in it&#x27;s current iterations. Plus, ARM is still proprietary (arguably moreso than x86), whereas RISC-V is fully open for anyone to use and manufacture. Simply from a technical side, I think RISC-V is going to eat ARM&#x27;s lunch within the decade, and I also think traditional architectures like x86 aren&#x27;t going away any time soon. Time will tell.
评论 #29606652 未加载
评论 #29607320 未加载
ksec超过 3 年前
Once, and if Intel fully transition to Foundry Model, we might see a free x86 IP core on their Foundry. There are still plenty of fighting chance for x86. So I wont declare it dead now or in the next 10 years even if the trajectory isn&#x27;t exactly great. Both Google and Microsoft are working towards their own ARM server solutions.<p>The importance of making 100% ( not 98% or 99,9% ) compatibility on business software and business PC, which represent 750M Windows user will be worth to keep x86 alive. Of course Microsoft being the key factor here, but I dont see them making any dramatic moves, and even if they did, it will take a long for those effect to be distributed.<p>Again, it is worth point out. The word &quot;dead&quot; means different thing to different people. On HN ( and in fact everywhere on the internet ) they often state Ruby is dead, when they meant Ruby is dying. No one uses COBOL, or COBOL is dead, when in fact majority of our underlying infrastructure are still running on it. Mainframe is dead... etc etc and I could continue forever.<p>Without a proper definition of dead, any of these discussions are meaningless.
alfor超过 3 年前
Yes, it’s going the way of cobol. Windows laptops will move to ARM to take advantage of power efficiency and follow Apple, then what is left of the desktop pc will follow.<p>x86 will stay alive for legacy systems but will become more and more expensive as they loose economy of scale and constant effort to keep up with performance.<p>Then only the expensive legacy system will keep paying the x86 tax
sriram_sun超过 3 年前
All embedded&#x2F;low power medical devices I&#x27;ve worked on since 2010 have moved over to ARM. Especially new development. Beaglebones like chips are great for PoC, prototyping etc. as you can install Linux and easily control gpio pins and have an abundance of serial, i2c, spi and even dual ethernet if needed. M3-M0s are great for smaller embedded chips.
评论 #29606799 未加载
darksaints超过 3 年前
Yes, x86 is dead. But ARM is just going to be a pit stop on the way to other open architectures like RISC-V AND OpenPOWER.
评论 #29606399 未加载
rektide超过 3 年前
I want to believe but i sure as shit dont see it. ARM still offers only tiny little straws that it talks to the outside world through.<p>How many phones can drive a 4k 144Hz monitor? how many have more than a single 5gbit usb3 jack? how many arm laptops have more than two bare basic usb3 host ports? hiw many chios offer a dozen lanes or more of pcie?<p>i really really think usb4 is excellent, especially with thunderbolt pcie which is not that much more complexity. gazing at my crystal ball i&#x27;d expect two more years before we see arm start to show up here, and likely at the flagship level devices only. it&#x27;s an indicator to me that arm is an unserious competitor. the ecosystem is a couple massive players, who seemingly are in cahoots to keep from pushing each other to advance much. even the archtecture moves at a crawl. a53 was around for almost a decade and a55 was barely a double digit % speed boost- abysmal, arm, abysmal.<p>i also think arm is hampered by having such a relationship oriented ecosystem. anyone can go out and buy x86 chips and make a computer. companys like chuwi build super interesting low cost boxes that run rings around most arm chips (not apple). innivation is open. by compare, try getting chips from qualcomm or mediatek or any other modern offering, without being an estaished player shipping dozens of millions of units a year. arm is a much more closed ecosystem, now supported by massive massive margins on $800+ devices, with well defined product niches. x86 is a much less entrenched &amp; much more diverse environment, with much higher general expectations (apple&#x27;s chips somewhat the exception).<p>at the high end, in servers, i think arm stands a chance. but these will be chips you cant actually buy, built by hyperscalers, or just phenomenally expensive high margin $6000 servers. if you need compute im expecting workstation chips (hdet) to be higher value, but if you also need io, then there may be some modest value proposition ein over x86. for hyperscalers though they will be saving bank.
politelemon超过 3 年前
It&#x27;s possible it&#x27;s just you, or to be more generic, it&#x27;s the specific bubbles that we live in and observe.<p>There are simply multiple eras ongoing at the same time. The ARM era stated a long time ago, not when you bought your laptop.
Turing_Machine超过 3 年前
I hope so.<p>If Microsoft will release a version of Visual Studio that runs on ARM, I&#x27;ll be able to do everything on one machine (there&#x27;s already an ARM version of Windows, but for whatever reason Visual Studio isn&#x27;t supported yet... I can kinda understand why, as it needs to do debugging-type stuff that&#x27;s more hardware-dependent).<p>I&#x27;m extremely pleased with the M1 iMac. Fast and silent. Back in the day I had a dual Athlon, which, while fast for its time, sounded like I had a couple of Dustbusters running under my desk.
jvanderbot超过 3 年前
Here&#x27;s how I think about it.<p>Don&#x27;t think about the era, think about what it means for you.<p>Either we are entering the Arm era, or we aren&#x27;t.<p>If we are, it won&#x27;t matter. all the s&#x2F;w in the world,languages, libraries,expertise, applications, etc aren&#x27;t going to disappear, so it won&#x27;t matter much. Programmers will switch compilers and learn new tricks, and consumers march on. I still buy games, play them, and code for a living.<p>If we are not, same story, just not as many new compilers.
评论 #29608760 未加载
mhh__超过 3 年前
There needs to be more than just Apple (and servers don&#x27;t count).<p>I hope they stick the landing (i.e. make Linux work great on M1 rather than just booting) but if the <i>only</i> competitive ARM cores available to consumers are from Apple, only running Apple software then I&#x27;m not all that convinced we&#x27;ll see a real changing of the guard.
maxharris超过 3 年前
I looked around the room I&#x27;m in just now, and I see a M1-based MacBook Pro, an iPhone XS, an iPad Pro, an iPhone 12, and a Sony OLED TV which most likely uses an ARM core.<p>The only exception is my wife&#x27;s work laptop, an x86 MacBook Pro. (It&#x27;ll be replaced by an ARM-based one in a year or two.)<p>It&#x27;s quite safe to say that x86 is dead.
评论 #29606373 未加载
评论 #29606462 未加载
评论 #29611728 未加载
mukundesh超过 3 年前
on desktop yes, but not in the cloud
评论 #29607034 未加载