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Dangerous humid heat extremes occurring decades before expected (2020)

219 点作者 perfunctory超过 3 年前

14 条评论

tejohnso超过 3 年前
&quot;Faster than expected&quot; is a common phrase in climate research. For example, the arctic is warming 4X faster than the rest of the planet, antarctic ice melt, arctic ice extent reduction, methane emissions, etc, all happening faster than expected, depending on the source. Someone even put together a namesake blog, fasterthanexpected.com - it&#x27;s a decent source for a high level picture of what is going on.<p>I say &quot;depending on the source&quot; because there are some extreme doom and gloom types for whom these changes are happening more slowly than expected. However, the difference is negligible. The doom and gloom types might say the end of the world is only 2 years away, which is extreme, but now even peer reviewed research in respected publications are starting to mention very severe outcomes within decades. In previous decades, these publications wouldn&#x27;t publish anything like that at all, then eventually they began to publish papers that mention these events happening within centuries, and now papers are coming out with very serious consequences being only decades away. The really scary thing is that the likelihood of sudden catastrophic change (eg: methane bombs, Thwaites Glacier collapse) is increasing, which could make the shorter time frame predictions actually come true.
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Gustomaximus超过 3 年前
If you haven&#x27;t experienced high humidity its hard to understand how debilitating it can be. You can&#x27;t cool down easily doing even mild physical work.<p>I&#x27;m in a subtropical zone (Brisbane) and in high humidity weather I do about 30-50% of the physical work I can on a non-humid day I&#x27;d estimate. OOften it&#x27;s best to work outdoors for an hour then cool down for an hour in pool&#x2F;aircon as if you overheat yourself itcan be hard to get back to normal that day.<p>That said its a good HN opportunity too for entrepreneurs. We see more and more kit like ice jackets that you freeze then wear outdoors etc for outdoor workers. Tech has to kick in here too.
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swader999超过 3 年前
I went skiing in minus 34 C a couple of weeks ago. It took a fair bit of thought to dress for it but I was able to last about three hours outside and had a great day. I don&#x27;t think you can deal with heat extremes as easily.
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hiidrew超过 3 年前
Recently read a novel, Ministry for the Future, the opening chapter illustrates a heat wave that happens in an extreme humid&#x2F;heat climate. I was not a big fan of the rest of the book but this opening chapter was pretty alarming, that scenario would be terrifying.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Ministry_for_the_Future" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Ministry_for_the_Future</a>
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andrewclunn超过 3 年前
Looks like the data points have more to do with how many weather recording stations a region has than anything else.
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roter超过 3 年前
NOAA has also recently released a mapping tool [0] that allows you to dig down to county level (scroll down to county map) for various hazards.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncdc.noaa.gov&#x2F;billions&#x2F;mapping" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncdc.noaa.gov&#x2F;billions&#x2F;mapping</a>
SketchySeaBeast超过 3 年前
An incredibly &quot;glass half full&quot; take, but it looks like the location of all the places that will be most affected are also the biggest producers - maybe this will be a good thing in encouraging change? Unfortunately I assume it&#x27;ll take a lot of death before that happens, and even then probably not, but I feel like at this point it&#x27;s either look for a silver lining or descend into complete despair.
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ck2超过 3 年前
Based on the past two years and especially right now, we&#x27;re not going to do a damn thing about it. Everyone&#x27;s going to have an excuse or &quot;don&#x27;t tell me what to do&quot; until it finally kills everyone or destroys the economy. Then it will be too late.
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pierre超过 3 年前
Minister of the future intro about a heat bubble gave me nightmares.<p>It make me think about how we could prevent death in case of a massive humid heat wave, and how we could do it at a low enough cost, especially in a situation where the grid fail. My best guess will be some tent with high isolation fabric (think emergency blanket) cooled with a tank of liquid nitrogen.
ducleonctor超过 3 年前
There is something peculiar on the map in the article that caught my eye:<p>The formerly split country of Germany is also sharply split on the map! The western part (BRD&#x2F;FRG) has significantly more hot humid days than the eastern part (former DDR&#x2F;GDR). The colored area edge almost exactly matches the border.<p>A political map of FRG&#x2F;GDR for comparison: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.stepmap.de&#x2F;karte&#x2F;brd-ddr-ddIwvxHotF" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.stepmap.de&#x2F;karte&#x2F;brd-ddr-ddIwvxHotF</a><p><i>Why does this data follow political borders so sharply in this case?</i> Is that effect real or caused by methology error or skewed data?<p>Apparently the basic data stems from the HadISD database: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.metoffice.gov.uk&#x2F;hadobs&#x2F;hadisd&#x2F;v311_2020f&#x2F;index.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.metoffice.gov.uk&#x2F;hadobs&#x2F;hadisd&#x2F;v311_2020f&#x2F;index....</a><p>This file lists the stations (version v311_2020f) in the database: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.metoffice.gov.uk&#x2F;hadobs&#x2F;hadisd&#x2F;v311_2020f&#x2F;files&#x2F;hadisd_station_fullinfo_v311_202001p.txt" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.metoffice.gov.uk&#x2F;hadobs&#x2F;hadisd&#x2F;v311_2020f&#x2F;files&#x2F;...</a><p>Many stations in the former GDR seem to be present, for example:<p><pre><code> 104880-99999 DRESDEN 51.133 13.767 230.1 1931-01-01 2020-02-06 094690-99999 LEIPZIG&#x2F;SCHKEUDITZ&amp; 51.417 12.233 142.0 1975-07-01 1991-10-31 </code></pre> If the effect is real: Which difference between FRG and former GDR areas causes it?
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shrubby超过 3 年前
Read Kim Stanley Robinson&#x27;s Ministry for the Future. The beginning is cool. Not.
photochemsyn超过 3 年前
Research from ~20 years ago forecast this result, I&#x27;m not sure it&#x27;s entirely unexpected, although the focus in those studies was on air temperature alone:<p>&gt; Because of the loss of life, damage to crops and vegetation in general and the impact on water supplies, these recent heat waves have stimulated much interest in their climatological features, recurrence times, and, especially, whether they are a portent of greenhouse-induced climatic change. For example, Trigo et al. (2005) state that the hot summer of 2003 in Europe exceeded any over the past 500 yr, and Schär et al. (2004) claim that this event was statistically very unlikely, and was also consistent with results from climatic change simulations. Stott et al. (2004) estimate that past anthropogenic influences doubled the probability of the occurrence of the 2003 heat wave. More intense and frequent heat waves are also predicted by Meehl and Tebaldi (2004) and Beniston (2004) on the basis of greenhouse simulations.[1]<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;journals.ametsoc.org&#x2F;view&#x2F;journals&#x2F;clim&#x2F;20&#x2F;15&#x2F;jcli4224.1.xml" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;journals.ametsoc.org&#x2F;view&#x2F;journals&#x2F;clim&#x2F;20&#x2F;15&#x2F;jcli42...</a><p>In the climate science literature, there&#x27;s a recent focus on the humidity factor:<p>&gt; Recent studies have pointed to a growing concern on increasing heat stress considering humidity effects as well as extreme temperatures. Kang and Eltahir emphasized the important role of humidity, and pointed out that North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heat waves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors [15]. By applying 35 °C as a threshold for human adaptability, Pal and Eltahir predicted that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in the region around the Arabian Gulf are likely to approach and exceed this threshold under business-as-usual emission scenarios [16]. Lin et al. determined trends of heat wave variation and stress threshold in three major cities of Taiwan based on WBGT, and suggested that the heat stress in all three cities will either exceed or approach the danger level (WBGT ≥ 31 °C) by the end of this century [17]. Russo et al. quantified humid heat wave hazards in the recent past and at different levels of global warming using the apparent temperature, showing that humidity can amplify the magnitude and apparent temperature peak of heat waves [11]. There have also been some studies assessing the adverse effects of heat stress on health and labor productivity [18,19]. [2]<p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;pmc&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC6539408&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;pmc&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC6539408&#x2F;</a><p>Ultimately this is going to result in population migration away from the most severely affected areas, or drastic (and expensive) measures like shifting to living underground in termite-mound-like habitation will have to be implemented.
jonahbenton超过 3 年前
(May 2020)
Shadonototra超过 3 年前
north will become south, and south will become north<p>i expect a switch in the coming decade<p>it&#x27;s speeding up<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nationalgeographic.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;article&#x2F;earth-magnetic-field-flip-poles-spinning-magnet-alanna-mitchell" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nationalgeographic.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;article&#x2F;earth-mag...</a>