Urea prices increase 270% in 1 year

There is a great quote I heard once that many people don&#x27;t realize: &quot;Modern agriculture is the conversion of the energy in fossil fuels to energy in food we can eat&quot;.<p>That is, the vast majority of nitrogen-fixation for fertilizers is done using natural gas or other petroleum product: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Ammonia_production" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Ammonia_production</a>

Forget diesel trucks and piss, ya’ll are overlooking that urea is a major component of fertilizer.<p>Higher urea prices-&gt;higher fertilizer prices-&gt;Less fertilizer demand-&gt;less food supply-&gt;more suffering via sick and hungry people-&gt;more potential for confrontation and war.

We&#x27;ve been here before, set that graph to show the last 15 years. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.eurekalert.org&#x2F;news-releases&#x2F;879968" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.eurekalert.org&#x2F;news-releases&#x2F;879968</a>

It was already clear in September that this was going to happen, when fertilizer plants started to shut down because of the high gas prices[1]. (context: Natural gas is used to produce ammonia via the Haber process, and the ammonia is in turn used to produce ammonium nitrate and urea, which are used as fertilizer.) I already commented on it back then[2].<p>I wonder why those events took a while to appear in the urea price?<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;2021&#x2F;sep&#x2F;16&#x2F;fears-for-uk-recovery-as-record-energy-prices-shut-fertiliser-plants" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;2021&#x2F;sep&#x2F;16&#x2F;fears-for-u...</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=29113533#29116895" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=29113533#29116895</a>

I should be more careful. I&#x27;ve been pissing this stuff away my entire life!

This a huge venerability in our supply chain. If we run out of DEF urea, trucking will grind to a halt. I hope engine makers like Cummins and Detroit have contingency plans where they could release a software patch for their engines that would temporarily bypass the DEF requirement. However, I doubt they have any contingency plan and this is actually a huge venerability that I guarantee our enemies know of.

The cause of this is that natural gas prices have dramatically risen in much of the world. For example, in the UK, natural gas has gone up 5x.<p>Urea is made from ammonia which is made from natural gas.<p>The effect of this will mostly impact the agricultural sector, where it is the main component of many fertilisers.

Looks like September is when the buffer in the global supply chain ended. At that point people realize what they took for granted and were definitely willing to pay more when it meant shutting down their operation otherwise.

A similar spike can be seen in August 2008.

Aside from agriculture, demand for urea has also increased due to recent introduction to maritime applications.<p>International Maritime Organisation - Tier III emmission certification require lowered emissions in (S)ECA areas.<p>Urea injection in exhaust lines convert SOx to CO2. &quot;HUG-units&quot; long used in greenhouses to also use the exhaust of generators used for lighting&#x2F;heating as additional CO2 source. These same units are now being slapped on to seagoing vessels that of length under Class (Lloyds&#x2F;Bureau Veritas etc.).<p>Sidenote: Service engineers and subsequent calibration tools are fully booked at this time. Good business to be had.

Curious how these big input cost swings translate to final product costs. We&#x27;re seeing steady news reports for individual components such as SemiConductors oil and other costs skyrocketing by triple digits. Presumably downstream the costs are partially eaten by wage declines, profit margin shrinkage, supply reserves, and other costs which aren&#x27;t spiking.<p>I wish I had access to an approximate Soviet style planning machine to simulate the outcome and time delay to cost increases. We&#x27;re probably still eating the food grown with last years food and fertilizer prices.

Lumber shot up in price for a few months, and then it came back down. Unless this is sustained I think it is safe to attribute to a supply shock.

For those lacking context:<p>Urea is a component of AdBlue which is used in modern diesel motors. There has been a shortage recently, hence the increase in price.

I am happy with my pre 2005 diesel truck purchase.

There&#x27;s a local sewage treatment plant that&#x27;s producing fertilizer[1] and selling it. Why couldn&#x27;t this be done on a large scale?<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cleanwatergrow.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cleanwatergrow.com&#x2F;</a>

So are all the monopolies in our global supply chain waking up to how they can wring profits and ... even better ... government subsidies that are long lasting and function as barriers to entry for competitors?

I vaguely recall a recent article about teaching pigs or cows (on farms) to urinate and defecate in separate spots, to ease waste management. If the urine is valuable, and the farm is large enough...

I wish we’d invest more in research to make all crops nitrogen fixing like beans and clover.<p>It seems like we’d be close to the right level of technology.

At least adding it as a yeast nutrient doesn&#x27;t require much. Should have limited impact to my wine making.

&quot;Harry King wasn&#x27;t the hero we needed. He was the hero we deserved.&quot;

remember, <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Pecunia_non_olet" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Pecunia_non_olet</a>

What&#x27;s there stopping supply from catching up to demand?

At what point would it be cost effective to sell urine?<p>(Asking for a friend.)

Can it be extracted as part of waste water processing?

This is because European gas prices spiked.

They&#x27;re taking the piss!

These prices are just taking the piss.

Scanned the title as Uber, was very confused by the comments about pee…

This is fine.<p>I&#x27;m okay with the events that are unfolding currently.<p>:S

I knew we shouldn’t have thrown out those jars of urine.

My hobby of peeing into bottles &amp; storing them is about to pay off.