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It's Time To Prepare For The Crisis Ahead

29 点作者 chailatte超过 13 年前

5 条评论

gaustin超过 13 年前
How much of this doom and gloom is it reasonable to worry about? How much of it is marketing for the kinds of books this guy writes, which seem of the same theme?
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joshcrews超过 13 年前
I would take this seriously. The causes of crisis of 2008 were never resolved just addressed with more debt and more money-creation. A financial system collapse like 2008 but without a rescue could happen this fall.<p>Steps to prepare: think of the power outages of a hurricane, with the rioters of London, with the austerity of the 30's depression. What would you want in advance to prepare for some combination of either or all of those happening in the near future?
outside1234超过 13 年前
it does feel like we are at the frontend of a disaster - its clear the US can't keep spending like this but yet we propose more stimulus.<p>its the same in Europe. nobody believes that Greece is getting out of this without defaulting. yet they keep sending money. it's crazy.<p>i suspect its going to end badly - either a major currency devaluation or a major recession as we are forced to balance our budget (and hence pull a lot of government spending out).
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simpsond超过 13 年前
I am no economist... so this is me trying to understand the situation. Doesn't news of imminent economic failure impact the economy negatively? If enough people are afraid to spend, because they are worried about money, then they slowing the economy. Once the forward economic momentum slows and wallets get thinner, the economic situation degrades further. Am I way off base here? It seems a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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justin_vanw超过 13 年前
&#62; "junk bonds yields are soaring" no they aren't. <a href="http://ycharts.com/indicators/moodys_seasoned_baa_corporate_bond_yield#startDate=&#38;endDate=&#38;zoom=5" rel="nofollow">http://ycharts.com/indicators/moodys_seasoned_baa_corporate_...</a><p>&#62; "there will be massive dumping when the support levels are broken" Really? Technical analysis? I wonder if he consulted his tea leaves as well. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis#Empirical_evidence" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis#Empirical_ev...</a><p>&#62; "In my Wellington Letter, I have been looking for a serious crisis to start in early September." So he believes he can predict major market movements months in advance? Why doesn't he use that data to make a billion dollars (as he easily could if he has this remarkable power). Rather, than, say, selling that same 'information' for $500 per year? <a href="http://www.dohmencapital.com/wellington.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.dohmencapital.com/wellington.htm</a><p>&#62; "Money managers realized during the July-August plunge that they were way overinvested." Wow, that's a huge claim. All of them did? What about the incompetent ones, they somehow tuned into this realization somehow? Or does he mean that just in general a lot of them 'realized' this? Of course, when he says 'realized' he actually means 'guessed', since you can't realize that you were wrong about a future event that you have no evidence to predict one way or the other. Phrasing it this way is just an attempt to use the unscientifically derived (in this case, assumed) opinion of anonymous or nonexistent experts as evidence. This is the sort of hand waving 'logic' he uses in the entire article.<p>&#62; "In the mean­time, the Pied Pipers will be out in force telling you to buy, so that they have someone to sell to." If Forbes isn't part of the Pied Pipers, who the fuck is? This is like Fox News talking shit about the 'mainstream media' while being #1 in the ratings.<p>&#62; "Warren Buffett’s $5 billion investment in Bank of America (BAC) shows that a crisis will not be confined to Europe. I consider this a signal that things are much worse than they are saying." It is entirely evidence that Warren Buffet thinks the fundamental value of BAC is higher than what he had to pay for it. Generally betting against Warren Buffet won't be profitable. Wait a second! Isn't Warren Buffet a 'Money Manager'??? I thought they were all overinvested and trying to unload. Warren Buffet is by far the largest 'Money Manager' in the world, and yet he's diving in with both feet. For fucks sake!<p>&#62; "Now that everyone knows there is a crisis in Europe, the one in China will soon be making headlines." So... They won't sell us stuff anymore? They barely import anything from the west, so if they go into some kind of crisis they still won't, but their exports will get cheaper and demand for oil and natural resources will go down worldwide.<p>&#62; "For more strategic recommendations, read September 5′s issue of the Wellington Letter." LOL, this entire article is just an advert.<p>This author is just full of shit on every point.