I read the comment about the unreliability of economics, however I do like to point one thing, most economical model fit well when the economy is doing ok or within a certain range of parameters, until something outside of those safe area happens. Think of 2008, and think of the economical impact of the pandemic. It's impossible to account for in prior models and thoughts as those are nonlinear events almost no one can predict. This is the thing with economy, we can only know a bit about our position and surroundings, but we have no way of knowing if we are in a local optimum, or if we are approaching a tipping point that invalidates all prior models. There are variables that don't matter until they reach a certain mass, there are metrics we simply can't find quantitive method to measure, let alone to predict. Economics is always messy, and with a lot of the classic thoughts proven wrong, we should be wary of any of the assumptions we make.