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Bitcoin days destroyed - explained

76 点作者 sathishmanohar超过 13 年前

5 条评论

trotsky超过 13 年前
Absolute rubbish metric, if anything it measures the absolute opposite of monetary velocity. The value is basically guaranteed to grow and grow even in the face of flat or declining economic activity<p>Monetary velocity is the sum of all transactions in a period divided by money supply Vt = nT / M<p>Imagine a model where the number of bitcoins is increased by one each period, and one random bitcoin is transfered to another party as economic activity<p><pre><code> day 1 day2 day 10 Total Money Supply: 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.0 Actual Transactions: 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Mean BTC days destroyed: 0.00 1.00 1.33 1.66 2.00 2.33 2.66 3.00 3.33 3.67 Monetary Velocity: 1.00 0.50 0.33 0.25 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.11 0.10 </code></pre> As you can see monetary velocity goes in the exact opposite direction of bitcoin days destroyed and doesn't follow any similar curve.<p>Whats worse is it doesn't have a consistent relationship with any of the real measures as you change your assumptions. Imagine instead you model a situation where every coin turns over every period. In this case Total money supply, actual transactions and BTC days destroyed will all be the exact same thing, instead of the earlier wide divergence. Monetary velocity will be exactly 1 each time because total transactions will equal total money supply.<p>BTC days destroyed also has a hard upper limit at total days created which means it can't measure very quick activity accurately (all money turning over once a day will be identical to it turning over 10x a day) and will over weight economic growth after a period of low activity.
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thasmin超过 13 年前
This metric seems to be just as flawed as total bitcoins transferred. Why should a bitcoin that hasn't been spend in a while be worth more than one that was spent yesterday? If someone sells something for bitcoins and then buys something else the same day, that seems like a great indicator of bitcoin activity but the second transaction is completely ignored by this metric.
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DiabloD3超过 13 年前
As a very early adopter (probably in the first 100) and author of DiabloMiner, and forum admin... I have exactly no idea what this is supposed to prove.<p>The only metric that seems to be valid is "are new people using Bitcion?" The answer is yes, thus Bitcoin is still here.
acslater00超过 13 年前
Can someone explain to me the Y-Axis here? I don't can't figure out the denominator of that percentage. I assume the numerator is "days destroyed". Is the denominator the total number coin "age days" at the start of a given day?
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georgieporgie超过 13 年前
I am reminded of the weird financial metric that Groupon invented...