This line of research is extremely interesting.<p>The final author, Gerd Gigerenzer is a legend (in my eyes anyway) for both his writings on the abuse of statistics, and heuristic decision making. In fact, in one of his papers, he talks about the use of complex models to predict customer retention (pareto/negative binomial models) and how these types of strategies were outperformed by a simple heuristic, the hiatus heuristic which states that if a customer has purchased in the last X months (the example of 9 was given) they are active, otherwise inactive.