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Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

525 点作者 unboxedvariable超过 3 年前

42 条评论

dang超过 3 年前
Related ongoing thread:<p><i>Facebook loses users for the first time</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=30186326" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=30186326</a> - Feb 2022 (395 comments)
omot超过 3 年前
This is from Mark Zuckerberg&#x27;s post. I think it&#x27;s a decent explanation of their performance. Historically Facebook always made these longer-term bets and they&#x27;ve typically paid off.<p>&quot;Before I get to that, I want to briefly touch on our Q4 results, which I know Sheryl and Dave are going to go deeper on. I&#x27;m proud of the work our teams did here. We shipped products, our community continued to grow, and businesses of all sizes turned to us to help them reach people. But there are two things that I want to call out that are having an impact on our business.<p>The first is competition. People have a lot of choices for how they want to spend their time and apps like TikTok are growing very quickly. And this is why our focus on Reels is so important over the long-term. As is our work to make sure our apps are the best services out there for young adults, which I spoke about on our last call.<p>The second area, and related to this, is that we&#x27;re in the middle of a transition on our own services towards short-form video like Reels. So as more activity shifts towards this medium, we&#x27;re replacing some time in News Feed and other higher monetizing surfaces. So as a result of both competition and this shift to short-form video as well as our focus on serving young adults over optimizing overall engagement, we&#x27;re going to continue to see pressure on impression growth in the near term. Now I&#x27;m confident that leaning harder into these trends is the right short-term tradeoff to make in order to get long-term gains. We&#x27;ve made these types of transitions before with mobile feed and Stories, where we took on headwinds in the near-term to align with important trends over the long term. And while video has historically been slower to monetize, we believe that over time short-form video is going to monetize more like feed or Stories than like Watch – so I&#x27;m optimistic that we&#x27;ll get to where we need to be with Reels too.&quot;
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JCM9超过 3 年前
Facebook’s core business model appears to be in decline. They don’t have a very diversified revenue stream despite trying various side businesses. This is the market worried that Facebook’s best days are behind it.<p>Facebook is betting the farm on the metaverse stuff but without meaningful financial results that’s not going to placate market concerns over what looks like a downhill future for the core businesses. Facebook’s less than fantastic record at making money on its other businesses doesn’t have the market terribly optimistic about about the future prospects metaverse stuff either. Net net stock down 20%.
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gzer0超过 3 年前
Here are the results that caused this:<p><pre><code> - Earnings per share: $3.67 vs $3.84 expected - Revenue: $33.67 billion vs $33.4 billion expected </code></pre> Facebook also missed estimates with user numbers.<p><pre><code> - Daily Active Users (DAUs): 1.93 billion vs 1.95 billion expected - Monthly Active Users (MAUs): 2.91 billion vs 2.95 billion expected - Average Revenue per User (ARPU): $11.57 vs $11.38 expected </code></pre> Future guidance was the biggest miss.<p><pre><code> - Q1 revenue guidance was $27 billion to $29 billion, while analysts were expecting sales of $30.15 billion</code></pre>
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ProfessorLayton超过 3 年前
Really, really curious to see how all this market volatility will affect their talent pool. Losing almost all gains over the last 18 months will certainly cause some people to reconsider their tenure — I know I have since my company&#x27;s (Not FB) stock has been hammered along with everyone else in the tech growth sector.<p>A lot of golden handcuffs are being unshackled right now
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intrepidsoldier超过 3 年前
The data center infrastructure that Facebook (Meta) has is probably in the top 5 in this world (behind only Amazon, Microsoft, Google).<p>They might want to become a cloud infrastructure provider for some side money and buy themselves some time to figure out this Metaverse fantasy :)<p>Hey, AWS started because Amazon wanted to lease out their spare infrastructure capacity.
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fdgsdfogijq超过 3 年前
This explains the shift to Meta. The current company is basically dying, and so they are going to bet the house on something new. Apple really did a number on them by restricting the data they can collect
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omot超过 3 年前
Maybe they&#x27;ll try launching a Facebook phone that tries to capture Apple&#x27;s market and it&#x27;ll fail miserably again.<p>Never underestimate the blue message bubble y&#x27;all. That&#x27;s real leverage.
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ppsreejith超过 3 年前
Dupe (oldest with most comments): <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=30184104" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=30184104</a><p>Dupe 2: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=30184560" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=30184560</a>
lvl100超过 3 年前
I wrote this in another FB thread but they need to own e-commerce vertical: Stripe and Shopify. Others here mentioned opening up their data centers too.
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ksec超过 3 年前
After the 20% Drop, Meta will have a market cap of $700B. Compared to ( Using billion for comparison )<p>$2850B Apple $2350B Microsoft $1950B Alphabet $1500B Amazon<p>I mean you need to be at least Trillion dollar market cap to join the club, the only other trillion dollar market cap crop is Saudi Aramco. But I think we should ignore that. May be dropping Meta from the MAMAA? Even Amazon is twice its size, and at the top Apple is <i>Four</i> times the size.<p>It is also interesting around Facebook IPO in 2011 &#x2F; 2012, I actually expected Google and Facebook will destroy each other and become one. either Google winning Social or Facebook took over Search within next 10 years. That didn&#x27;t happen. Google tries to enter social but have absolutely not a god damn idea what they are doing. It wasn&#x27;t clear to me then at the time Google had no product mindset.<p>Had that happened the combined company would be the same size as Apple.<p>It will be interesting to see Amazon&#x27;s report in a few hours time. I am wondering if they will join the 2 Trillion dollar club soon.
redwood超过 3 年前
They really have us trapped with WhatsApp… difficult to figure out how to get off this platform
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bhelkey超过 3 年前
It is very common for stocks to significantly rise or fall after the release of earnings reports. If stocks always went up after their earnings report, it would make sense to buy the stock beforehand and sell immediately afterwards. Conversely, if the stock always went down after earnings, it would make sense to sell the stock right before the report was released and rebuy afterwards.<p>I noticed that often times these dips lead to sensationalist headlines like &quot;Apple shares tank 5% after abysmal earnings&quot;. When I looked into these headlines, I often noticed that the stock often &quot;plummeted&quot; to the price it was at a week or two prior.<p>To counter this, one metric I use is, &quot;When was the last time the stock was at this new price?&quot;<p>Today Facebook shares are trading at ~$238. The last time it was trading at this price was June 2020.
dralley超过 3 年前
There&#x27;s no such thing as &quot;endless&quot; growth.
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librish超过 3 年前
Apple vs ad-tech is a really interesting battle. It shows the immense power Apple has in the consumer market today, where they can affect some of the largest businesses in the US unilaterally. Meta is in a very tricky position in that unless they put up an actual paywall users don’t really have any incentive to allow tracking. But putting up a paywall introduces a lot of friction, not to mention the adverse selection (the affluent people you most want to advertise to are probably the most likely to pay to not be tracked).<p>I know most people on here really dislike targeted advertising. I’m not going to speculate on the potential future problems that tracking could lead to, and I think it’s very reasonable to be concerned. But so far targeted advertisement has been a net positive for me. I’ve gotten to use some really good applications for free, and I’ve gotten ads that are actually relevant.
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paulpauper超过 3 年前
It still higher than it was in early 2020 after covid.<p>the stock had gone up so much since then that expectations had gotten too high.<p>FB&#x2F;Meta still makes a crapload of money, just not as much as some analysts had expected.
DisjointedHunt超过 3 年前
Big Takeaways:<p>1. The CEOs insistence on &quot;Competition&quot; as the cause for the increased focus on short term impression rates seems pointed at regulators and Congress rather than at investors. This is silly too, Google had no such pressure on impressions and performed rather well just days before.<p>2. The cat is out of the bag. Facebooks secret sauce was their very HEAVY focus on bottom funnel advertising where they would ascribe suspect numbers that were not Industry standard to &quot;Conversion&quot; objectives (RoAS anyone?). Anyone, anywhere sees an ad at any point in their conversion journey and Facebook would assign a large weighted portion of conversions leading from that individual in their reporting.<p>3. The big scary underlined headline here should be HOW POWERFUL APPLE IS. They sneeze and change one small thing in the way apps can access their platforms and we see an entire industry shaken.<p>4. They won&#x27;t die out quick. These numbers, though not &quot;Growing&quot; as fast as befor or expected to grow as fast (which is the bigger concern), still is much, much , much higher than they need to sustain their business over the next two decades. The big risk though, is the stock price drop which is how the bulk of their pricy talent is paid dropping. Everyone there is currently staring at a 25% pay cut on their stock based comp and that is not a pretty picture for attracting the best kids graduating this year with ambitions of joining a fast growing tech firm or pulling in talent from places like MSFT or GOOG or AAPL who will not want to jump aboard a perceived sinking ship.
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misiti3780超过 3 年前
Google &#x2F; Google+ === Facebook&#x2F;Metaverse.<p>They can change their name all they want, they are slowing turning into the AOL of our decade. I&#x27;m willing to take bets on where this is all going.<p>I own an Oculus - it sucks. The founder of Oculus admits it sucks. Instagram sucks more than it did last year. I dont have a FB account, but it sounds like it&#x27;s an ad-driven hell-hole.<p>Eventually FB will lose because their entire business model is based on outrage, and that cant last forever. It&#x27;s very clear it is having catastrophic consequences for societies everywhere.<p>What is the saying .. ?<p>&quot;The chickens will eventually came home to roost&quot;
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fbn79超过 3 年前
Meta is the most owned stock (2% of all invested) by institutional and superinvestors with an hold medium price of 339$ (source DATAROMA <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.dataroma.com&#x2F;m&#x2F;stock.php?sym=fb" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.dataroma.com&#x2F;m&#x2F;stock.php?sym=fb</a>). This crash would not be painless for the whole market.
advisedwang超过 3 年前
This is after-hours trading which is very volatile. I wouldn&#x27;t read too much into a &quot;20%&quot; drop.
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2OEH8eoCRo0超过 3 年前
Didn&#x27;t Zuck even say he expects to take a hit as they invest heavily on evolving Metaverse technologies?
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cardosof超过 3 年前
Meta should just double down on trying to be not just an ads company by buying Valve or some other prestigious gaming company and some business software company to have better gaming and business tools in their metaverse.
mwattsun超过 3 年前
I don&#x27;t recall a company ever the size of Meta dropping 20% in one day of trading. That&#x27;s immense. People must think the company is broken in some way, or I might be over-reacting.
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altdataseller超过 3 年前
Not 1 mention of Tiktok? IDFA is probably not the main reason they had a bad report. Tiktok is quickly dominating time spent and the reason active users are plateauing.
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a2tech超过 3 年前
Hope Zuck has been selling some of that stock on the reg so he&#x27;s got real cash when the Meta train comes to the end of the line.
jbkiv超过 3 年前
Gee, I pulled out many years ago. Sounds like FB is going the Yahoo route, just down, trying to catch up to others.
Thaxll超过 3 年前
Facebook out of FANG in a couple of years.
isimluk超过 3 年前
One simply doesn&#x27;t change a name when continuation of previous successes is to be expected.
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hlbjhblbljib超过 3 年前
Meta? Never heard of them.
soheil超过 3 年前
Is this the beginning of the end we&#x27;ve been all waiting to see?
Galanwe超过 3 年前
I don&#x27;t quite get the article.<p>The tech sector as a whole dropped 13% in Jan, same as FB shares,following a massive (overdue) correction. Most likely FB did a flat return once market&#x2F;sector residualized. What&#x27;s all the fuss about?
naveen99超过 3 年前
Imagine where it would be if modi didn’t ban tiktok in india…
sabujp超过 3 年前
paypal also had a really bad dip (again) for really no good reason. everyone i know in the US uses paypal to split payments and to send money to others.
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rossmohax超过 3 年前
If AMZN posts bad earnings tomorrow markets are doomed.
chaostheory超过 3 年前
imo the surprise is that they didn&#x27;t miss Wall St analyst targets even further given how much money and resources they are funneling into XR.
theranger超过 3 年前
That’s not a weak outlook, but rather a weak facebook.
tomrod超过 3 年前
Time to buy?
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nappy-doo超过 3 年前
The vitriol on HN for FB is something else.<p>The earnings for this company are truly staggering. They made 11$&#x2F;user. Their earnings were up 34% year-over-year – on a base of 29B dollars. They made 10B more this year than they did last year, and the comments in here are all about, &quot;boy Apple fucked them, and Meta suxor!&quot;<p>You people are nuts.<p>While I don&#x27;t love FB as an entity, as a business they are making fucking bank. They are running a printing press, and the world is eating it up. Y&#x27;all need to switch to decaf or something. Their numbers are truly staggering.
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YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo超过 3 年前
Looking at previous missed earnings they are just going to be even more predatory.
nikolay超过 3 年前
Well, the VR&#x2F;metaverse distraction will be their doom! Zuck has lost touch with reality - nobody cared about VR, nobody would!
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analogdreams超过 3 年前
Maybe if they spent less time censoring&#x2F;de-platforming they would have eyeballs to sell those ads to.
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CultMember009超过 3 年前
I think Meta and Tesla should consider merging because of the great synergy it will create. Imagine being driven to all your destinations while being plugged in to the Metaverse headset. You could enjoy beautiful sceneries while experiencing awesome real world g force. Tesla would also suddenly get billions more potential customers through their social network platforms. I would be so hyped!
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