I think - hope - that it won't go nuclear.<p>Let me start with the possibility of cyberattacks. Biden (I think it was he, anyway) made a comment about American offensive cyber capabilities. I think that was a warning. "Hey, Russia, yes you could cyberattack us and cause a lot of problems. But we can do the same to you, and maybe better. Don't open that door." And so far, they haven't.<p>Maybe the same thing could be said about tactical nukes. "You want to use a tactical nuke on something in Ukraine? Think twice. If a tactical nuke just <i>happened</i> to wind up in Ukrainian hands, well, that armored column that's stalled outside of Kyiv would look like an awfully tempting target..."<p>Would that be enough to keep Russia from using them? I don't know.<p>And I think this article is off base when it talks about escalation even if the Ukranians win. It talks about Ukranians crossing the border into Russia to carry out attacks. In what world is that going to happen? What do they think they're going to do, march on Moscow?<p>I mean, I can see some accidental or incidental incursions. I can't see a real deliberate crossing. (I can see Russian propaganda turning an incidental crossing into "The Nazi Ukranians are coming for us! It's Barbarossa 2.0! Every man to the trenches!" But that's just propaganda - unless Putin believes it.)