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Ask HN: What do we do with cash now that inflation is a risk?

66 点作者 soferio大约 3 年前
What does History tell us is the empirically correct investment strategy in a period of forthcoming inflation? For max return? For safety?

22 条评论

yulaow大约 3 年前
Honestly I keep the same investment strategy I had before and stay diversified (80% etf stock, 10% etf bond, 10% &quot;maybe I&#x27;ll never see the money back, whatever&quot; crypto) and keep investing the same percentage of my salary (20% monthly)<p>I am looking at least to 20years from now before withdrawing something.<p>I don&#x27;t know how much will last this inflation period, how big it will go, how it will affect the stock&#x2F;crypto&#x2F;bond market, whatever other &quot;it will happen only every 50 years&quot; absurd event will happen in the next years after a pandemic and a (let&#x27;s hope almost) world war 3, etc... So it makes no sense to change my investment strat now if I can&#x27;t even predict the situation in 3 months.
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awb大约 3 年前
Assets are a hedge against inflation. Stocks, real estate, art, etc.<p>The more utility and stability, the safer the investment. The more speculative or novel, the riskier the investment.<p>Real estate and property are typically pretty safe and have some utility.<p>As are bonds (but most might not keep up with high inflation, just dampen the effects).<p>Novel assets like crypto, NFTs, etc. will likely produce higher variability in returns (either positive or negative).
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Mezzie大约 3 年前
I can&#x27;t speak to history, but I&#x27;m converting my cash into social capital. It won&#x27;t directly get me more money, but I have a disability (MS) and therefore a variable-length career. (i.e. I can&#x27;t plan on working until 60&#x2F;65&#x2F;etc. - I could have 3 years left, I could have 33.)<p>The more of a safety net I enable to exist here, the more likely it will be here when I need it, and the more connections I make here now, the more likely it is someone will catch me when I fall.<p>If you&#x27;re JUST talking financial return (versus safety, hence my decision), it&#x27;s entirely dependent on your timeline. Do you need to pull out in 1 year? 5? 20? 50? They all require different strategies.
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dilippkumar大约 3 年前
Not an expert by any means - but if you can buy a loan with pre-inflation interest rates, then you’ll benefit from the inflation eating up some of the debt. This makes it a good time to borrow iff<p>1. There is something meaningful&#x2F;profitable that you can do with the borrowed money<p>2. Your credibility allows you to buy a loan at cheap prices<p>3. Your inflation predictions are accurate<p>4. Your loan’s terms keep the interest rate fixed at a rate less than the inflation you expect<p>As for myself, I don’t think I can put extra capital to profitable use right now, so I’m not going to be borrowing any money.
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anm89大约 3 年前
Commodities, real estate and debt.<p>I would argue real estate isn&#x27;t as much of a sure things as some people suggest as it could be rate sensitive and it could correlate with equity markets over the long term.
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exolymph大约 3 年前
Invest in stuff — TINA, &quot;there is no alternative.&quot; Stocks and crypto if you highly prize liquidity and are investing for the long haul (e.g. you won&#x27;t take the money out again until decades from now). Real estate, not because it&#x27;s crash-resistant but because it has tangible utility.<p>Most of all invest in your community and relationships. Those are always the best prep, whether we&#x27;re talking financial or disaster preparedness.
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next_xibalba大约 3 年前
In May 2020, Paul Tudor Jones, an investor with a long track record of success, accurately predicted our current predicament and recommended [1] the following trades as good inflation hedges:<p><pre><code> - Gold - The Yield Curve (long US2Y, short US10Y) - NASDAQ 100 - Bitcoin - US cyclicals (long)&#x2F;US defensive (short) - AUDJPY - TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) - GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) - JPM Emerging Market Currency Index </code></pre> One caveat is that some of these bets are not easily accessible to retail traders.<p>Another is that TIPS are disputed as a good inflation hedge. One reason for this is that they are indexed to the CPI, which, some argue, significantly understates real inflation.<p>With inflation already raging, the upside on these bets might not be great if placed in March 2022. Of course, if you expect high inflation to be persistent, these may still be viable.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.docdroid.net&#x2F;H1fuimX&#x2F;the-great-monetary-inflation-pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.docdroid.net&#x2F;H1fuimX&#x2F;the-great-monetary-inflatio...</a>
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tacostakohashi大约 3 年前
Inflation has always been a risk, what&#x27;s happening &quot;now&quot; is that the risk has been realized.<p>For that reason, all the best ways to deal with inflation have just shot up in price to the point where yields are unattractive.<p>It&#x27;s like asking &quot;where do I get a cheap umbrella now that it&#x27;s raining?&quot;, it&#x27;s basically too late, the trick is to account for the risk <i>before</i> it is realized.
muzani大约 3 年前
I live in a developing country where inflation is moderate. Just do anything other than holding on to the money.<p>Starting a business becomes substantially less risk than taking a job.<p>Some people would say buy property etc and you can just raise rent along with inflation. But it doesn&#x27;t necessarily work that way; the prices may actually go up <i>slower</i> than inflation.
notjustanymike大约 3 年前
You can&#x27;t time the market. The bubble was supposed to burst years ago, but kept going up. Just stagger your investment, either monthly or quarterly. If you&#x27;re not confident in your own knowledge then Schwab has a robo-investor that will do you well.
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lazerpants大约 3 年前
After considering the risks I put some of my money into Gemini as GUSD yielding around 8%. After paying the taxes on that you&#x27;re at least close to inflation.<p>I chose Gemini because of their NY state compliance and their attempts to be compliant ahead of government regulation. I still wouldn&#x27;t put all of my money in Gemini but it is a highly liquid, high-yielding, way to diversify and get some yield.<p>Full disclosure: I do stand to benefit from Gemini&#x27;s success due to associates having equity, but I used GUSD and Gemini Earn prior to having that connection.
tbirdz大约 3 年前
buy some I bonds from the US treasury at treasurydirect.gov. They are guaranteed to match inflation.
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sglazer大约 3 年前
For max return and safety, I go with stocks that, on weighted average, have a low beta, preferably in the 0.80s. These stocks trend continuously upward and don’t suffer as much from sudden market downturns. They keep up with inflation.
Bostonian大约 3 年前
Lots of people have recommended stocks, but if market are efficient, it should not be possible to predict the excess returns of stocks or bonds over cash using public information such as the current level of inflation.
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h0p3大约 3 年前
I have a similar question, but not for the wealthy: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;philosopher.life&#x2F;#Unorthodox%20Savings" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;philosopher.life&#x2F;#Unorthodox%20Savings</a>
lmedinas大约 3 年前
Cryptocurrency and Gold ?
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aynyc大约 3 年前
As far as I know, the only accessible hedge strategy is to take on debt, which usually means mortgage loans. But mortgage usually comes with different risk and more work.
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andrewmcwatters大约 3 年前
I never see anyone mention this, but I don&#x27;t buy the idea—perhaps based on a gut feeling versus reading any particular studies—that it&#x27;s wise to just stick your cash into any asset vehicle because inflation is ever persistent.<p>Well it&#x27;s ever persistent for everyone, and if everyone is buying, it&#x27;s not <i>impossible</i> to purchase something beyond its fair value.<p>For instance, if you bought into US equities on Feb 10th, you would have lost over 24% by March 23rd. If you held it until now, you would have made back your losses... but if you bought broad equities on EOY 2021, you would have lost <i>more</i> than inflation up to this point in 2022.<p>Ray Dalio mentioned his confusion about markets not crashing when he was young because the dollar became untethered from gold a second time in U.S. history, and he later realized buying assets when central banks print was a &quot;rhyme&quot; in economics history--these events don&#x27;t repeat perfectly, but similar situations occur over time. In his case, it was a repeat event.<p>But I hate with a passion when people talk about generally what you should do without ever talking about mechanical limits to that type of decision making.<p>It&#x27;s so pervasive that you get studies put out by financial institutions saying you&#x27;re better to always be fully invested, and to never set aside cash. Could you elaborate on that? Or is it because you&#x27;re an institution getting paid on expense ratios based on AUM.<p>The whole attitude industry-wide is gross and conflicting to me.<p>If you refused to buy when general equities were historically high at any point in time and held on to cash while eating inflation, when market prices came down and you bought when valuations were fair value you would have <i>made</i> money, you didn&#x27;t lose it simply because inflation was present. It always is. But you have a choice of whether you want to buy a dollar of assets for two, or if you want to buy a dollar of assets for 80 cents. That&#x27;s NOT MARKET TIMING. That&#x27;s refusing to buy something when it&#x27;s overvalued, but people so grossly conflate the two that you can&#x27;t have any reasonable discussion with a layperson about this concept because catch-all sayings predominantly reside in average investors&#x27; minds over studies and historic figures about asset management.<p>Buy low, sell high! Buy and hold forever! Yeah, but what is &quot;<i>high</i>&quot;? And why would you hold something that is dying?<p>I feel like the pop literature available to the public that is digestible covers some reasonable concepts but I think there are studies that either haven&#x27;t been independently recreated to back simple common questions for the above average person, or they haven&#x27;t been performed at all.
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m1117大约 3 年前
Stocks!
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rdtwo大约 3 年前
I’m buying more house.
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fuzzfactor大约 3 年前
Invest in yourself sooner rather than later.
lolive大约 3 年前
Food and Books.<p>[does money have other relevant purposes?]