Putin’s Worsening Problems

Hmmmm… I think people are overlooking the fact that Putin is willing to simply lay siege and use artillery to shell the Ukrainians into submission.

Mearsheimer’s prediction, based on the assumption that this is a superpower feeling under existential threat:<p>“The Russians are not going to roll over and play dead. In fact what the Russians are going to do is they&#x27;re going to crush the Ukrainians. They&#x27;re going to bring out the big guns. They&#x27;re going to turn places like Kiev and other cities in Ukraine into rubble. They&#x27;re going to do Fallujahs.”<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;ppD_bhWODDc?t=1257" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;ppD_bhWODDc?t=1257</a>

I get the need for flag waving but Kyiv is at best a distraction. The real aim here was to create and occupy a land bridge between Donbass and Crimea and that seems to be pretty much done.<p>If I was to bet on anything, I&#x27;d expect Russia to gradually withdraw to the south and then occupy it, digging in for a long negotiation process.

To reduce the level of rando mass murder by Putin from long range positions:<p>Stand with Ukraine:<p>paraphrasing HR: &quot;Medium range air defense and shore to ship missiles ...&quot;<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;MDpTACez5cY?t=473" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;MDpTACez5cY?t=473</a>

If the Ukrainians are allowed to protest, then Russia is fighting this while trying to minimize overt civilian casualties (most likely to avoid video of such acts becoming galvanizing propaganda tools against them). If things go poorly, then what? If Russia then starts fighting to destroy rather than conquer Ukraine intact, then it&#x27;s a whole different story. This piece reads of wishful thinking.