The discussion about effectiveness of sanctions is made pointless by the fact that they are, next to sending arms, the only way the West can respond to Russian aggression. A military response is out of the question for obvious reasons.<p>And sanction will work -- the reason the Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc collapsed is economic. People seem to forget that e.g what made workers go on a country-wide strike in the 80s Poland and eventually led to the downfall of communism in that country was not the notorious lack of freedom and media censorship but empty wallets.<p>The situation here may be similar and the process can be long, possibly decades. I think what makes the situation worse for Russians is the fact that economic ties with the West are so much stronger compared to the 1950s. The Russian middle-class from big cities will be hit the hardest -- losing their good paying IT and finance jobs and facing a huge downgrade in the quality of life or facing emigration. It's true that the sanctions will have less effect on blue-collars or people from smaller town and villages, likely the main source of support for Putin and also the main audience for the state propaganda. But, I'd argue that the middle-class city dwellers are more influential and less prone to the propaganda.<p>Oligarchs are another group key to influencing Russian politics and that's harder to reason about. On one hand losing one's yachts and houses on Cote d'Azur is a blow to the status. On the other hand their wealth comes from exploiting commodities and sanctions are unlikely to target that. On the contrary: in the short term the current situation is likely to be beneficial.<p>If there's a silver lining for the EU, it might be accelerating the process of Green transformation. Even if the war ends tomorrow, I can't see there being any support for retaining existing level of dependence on Russian oil and gas. That ship has sailed. Countries that will remain dependent on Russian fossil fuels, e.g Hungary, have visibly strong autocratic tendencies and will be increasingly ostracised in the EU, possibly eventually leaving it.