Saying that Ukraine is winning is like saying someone is winning a boxing match when their opponent has a machine gun that they haven't decided to use yet.<p>The opponent should not use the machine gun. It may even be unlikely that they'll use it. But the only reason the unarmed boxer is winning is because their opponent is not desperate enough.<p>I hope that Russia is never pushed to use its tactical nukes or any of its other astonishingly destructive weapons, but there's no reason right now to assume that they won't.