I was talking about this a few weeks ago, and a point was made in this article that I was making. We have 3 outcomes here, one, that this thing ends when it ends and there's a new cold war, two that someone launches nukes and it's game over for everyone, or three, that someone drops a nuke and it's not the end of the world, in which case it becomes normal for someone to drop a nuke every once in a while. Still better than the end of the world, but not a good world to live in.<p>If this ends with no nukes flying I'll be surprised. The stakes are high. Major powers are fighting an existential battle right now. But if it does, the world order is changed dramatically, either Russia controls Ukraine in which case other countries might decide they can do similar (which means it isn't really over) and we slow burn a global conflict, or or Russia loses out and is probably forever relegated to a minor player and someone else fills the power vacuum.