"So why can’t Western analysts admit as much?"<p>I would include the Western political class, officialdom and establishment punditry here as well, since there is zero daylight between them.<p>I believe their reasons are self evident. The "multipolar" world is wobbling. One of the poles is mostly fake. That serves to at least discredit the bubble in which they prefer to live, and from which they derive their rationales.<p>This progression is interesting in what it omits:<p>"Most professional scholars of the Russian military first predicted a quick and decisive Russian victory; then argued that the Russians would pause, learn from their mistakes, and regroup; then concluded that the Russians would actually have performed much better if they had followed their doctrine; and now tend to mutter that everything can change, that the war is not over, and that the weight of numbers still favors Russia."<p>The part left out is the endless harping about the threat of nuclear conflict injected in between every point in that progression. The handlers of every Western leader appear to be wearing out the little string they pull to make their charge wag its finger and remind everyone that nuclear war is imminent.<p>Thankfully, despite the naïve plans of so many comfortable Western Eloi, MAD is still 100% in effect, and Putin and all of his commanders know it, right down the the officers holding their 50 year old launch keys. The threats we hear from Russian officials of nuclear consequences aren't foolish merely because they further pariah-ize Russia, but also because they're futilely redundant; you can't swing the proverbial cat without hitting another Western grandee prattling endlessly about the risk of nuclear war. It must be a great relief that at least this one aspect of the pole they've relied on isn't fake.<p>While Putin escalates Ukraine into a world war by dragging in Syrian forces, our leaders instinctually trump any suggestion that we might do more than flood Ukraine with Javelins. The good news is that unless Putin mobilizes the entirety of Russia and fires every conventional missile they can scrounge up Ukraine is going to 'win' this. So perhaps we are best to keep it all at arms length. Still, I feel we're missing an opportunity to make the defeat of Russia happen quickly and decisively, to the great benefit of our planet, and perhaps save a few hundred thousand innocent lives in the process.