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Induced Demand Is Real

31 点作者 dedalus大约 3 年前

9 条评论

wffurr大约 3 年前
What&#x27;s with the editorialized title? The linked Wikipedia article is just titled &quot;Induced Demand&quot;. That should be the HN title as well; OP please fix the title to match the linked page.<p>If you want to then post a common with your view or reason for posting, that sounds great too. Then we can discuss it.
robertlagrant大约 3 年前
Calling the demand &quot;induced&quot; seems a little strange.<p>Did creating the iPhone induce demand for iPhones that otherwise would not have been there? Was there pent up demand for iPhones that was sated by their creation?<p>Or did people like the utility of iPhones, and buy them in spades?<p>In the same way, it seems strange to term things induced&#x2F;pent up demand. Increased road capacity means people could plan more car trips without worrying about sitting in traffic.
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donatj大约 3 年前
The end goal of adding lanes to a freeway shouldn&#x27;t be to &quot;reduce congestion&quot; but increase total throughput. Seems like a pretty basic misunderstanding.<p>Adding lanes also has the effect of more lane changes, which are a big part of what slows traffic down to begin with.
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lostdog大约 3 年前
I prefer to think of it as either unmet or unsurfaced demand. It&#x27;s easier to think about the two places where &quot;induced demand&quot; shows up in arguments: traffic and housing.<p>For traffic and housing there&#x27;s tons of people who would drive more or live somewhere dense if more roads&#x2F;housing were provided. The big difference is whether the demand is exhaustible. For roads it&#x27;s not: you would have to pave all of LA into a freeway system to eliminate traffic. Housing might be different though. Densifying the region around the downtown could outpace the influx of people. The difference is whether trying to exhaust the demand leads to a pleasant collection of neighborhoods or a 60-lane freeway hellscape.
motohagiography大约 3 年前
Trying to remember an adage on nanog back in the day about why ISPs should provision 2x average capacity, and how traffic in the 1990s expanded to fill the bandwidth available to it. If I remember, it was about only making extra circuits available for burst traffic, and not available otherwise. At the time I remember thinking this had obvious paralells to road traffic.<p>It sounds closely related to Parkinson&#x27;s Law about work expanding to fill time allotted to it (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Parkinson%27s_law" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Parkinson%27s_law</a>) which links back to the OP.<p>For express traffic, I&#x27;ve often thought periodically tapering off passing lanes using painted lines and forcing drivers who passively drive in them back into the active flow of traffic would increase the average speed and consistency of flow for related reasons and the idea of &quot;smooth is fast.&quot; Physical dynamic traffic shaping, essentially. Adding complexity or even randomness to interrupt the dynamics that induce the increased demand would be a design consideration.<p>I&#x27;d wonder where network protocol design ends and car traffic engineering begins, or if they are essentially the same thing.
99_00大约 3 年前
These ideas were popular when real estate developers wanted to build and sell a lot of downtown&#x2F;centrally located condos.<p>As downtowns run out of land and demand declines (because of work from home and the decline of downtowns) a new business plan will be created and a new ideology will be developed to support it.<p>I just want to know what it&#x27;ll be so I can front run it. Anyone have any idea?
wrnr大约 3 年前
No one has mentioned Breass&#x27;s Paradox yet:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=cALezV_Fwi0" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=cALezV_Fwi0</a><p>This also happens in simple physical systems, as shown in the video later on.
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tus666大约 3 年前
demand != consumtion
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rel2thr大约 3 年前
Urbanists way overstate the importance of induced demand and make it seem like gospel truth that adding roads is pointless<p>I went down the rabbit hole of induced demand studies a few years back, the evidence for the idea that adding lanes or roads does not reduce congestion is pretty weak. There just aren&#x27;t that many roads being built, theres a ton of confounding factors ( population growth ) , and even some of these studies like the A&amp;M one in this wikipedia are mixed.