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Increased cardiovascular events in Israel during vaccine rollout and third wave

110 点作者 johntfella大约 3 年前

10 条评论

jmcgough大约 3 年前
While this paper looks scary, keep in mind that the journal isn&#x27;t particularly reputable and that the vast majority of studies find that mRNA vaccines are safe. It&#x27;s certainly worth studying this (and many more researchers will continue to do so) but not really anything to merit not getting vaccinated.<p>If you want to confirm any pre-existing belief you may have, you can find fringe papers to support essentially anything.
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zentr1c大约 3 年前
A Berlin News paper reports of the public inquiry of firefighters and emergency personnel to investigate the root cause of a rise in different &quot;heart issue calls&quot; of 27-31% in 2021 (40k calls) compared to 2018&#x2F;2019.<p>In german: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.berliner-zeitung.de&#x2F;news&#x2F;berlin-feuerwehr-herzprobleme-und-schlaganfaelle-zahl-der-rettungseinsaetze-steigt-stark-an-li.222431" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.berliner-zeitung.de&#x2F;news&#x2F;berlin-feuerwehr-herzpr...</a><p>They argue to change from mandatory vaccination to optional vaccination for their profession.<p>Evolution will tell what the right choice was. I am having popcorn while watching the extremists battle each others position.
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linkgoron大约 3 年前
The result looks relatively weak IMO.<p>The numbers are less impressive then what they seem, and IMO the numbers look like they were computed in a way that resulted in what the authors wanted. For example, weekly counts of cardiac arrest calls are computed using a five-week centered moving-average, and COVID-19 and vaccination doses are computed using a three-week centered moving-average. I&#x27;d assume that using three weeks for cardiac arrest calls, the numbers would look less correlated.
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tempestn大约 3 年前
This is good data, and as the paper states, it is important that vaccine recipients are aware of possible side effects so that they know to seek medical attention if such arise. That said, it&#x27;s important to note the scale of the effect observed. Looking at the cardiac arrest calls for instance, we&#x27;re looking at an increase from roughly 7 to 10 per week, while hundreds of thousands of vaccine doses were being administered per week. Likewise ACS calls went from 30-35 per week up to a peak of around 45. These are obviously very significant increases, but still remained unlikely events. That said, unvaccinated case fatality rate from covid in that age range is also very low:<p>&gt; Age-specific IFR estimates form a J shape, with the lowest IFR occurring at age 7 years (0·0023%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·0015–0·0039) and increasing exponentially through ages 30 years (0·0573%, 0·0418–0·0870), 60 years (1·0035%, 0·7002–1·5727), and 90 years (20·3292%, 14·6888–28·9754). <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thelancet.com&#x2F;journals&#x2F;lancet&#x2F;article&#x2F;PIIS0140-6736(21)02867-1&#x2F;fulltext" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thelancet.com&#x2F;journals&#x2F;lancet&#x2F;article&#x2F;PIIS0140-6...</a><p>But of course we can&#x27;t directly compare the two, as we&#x27;d need to know the fatality rate from these CA and ACS calls, not to mention looking at other negative outcomes short of death. Regardless, it certainly appears to me that vaccination still makes sense for all ages, but if you assume the risk of these side effects is the same for each booster, whereas the impacts on serious covid outcomes are diminishing, I guess there would be a point at which the risk of the side effects would outweigh the marginal benefit of additional &#x2F; more frequent boosters for young people.
bad_alloc大约 3 年前
It could be the vaccine.<p>It could be the novel virus and degradation of healthcare services due to overloading.<p>It could be an interaction of both and unknown external factors.
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KarlKemp大约 3 年前
Note that we are talking about an increase from 150 to 190 here. And the 150 in 2020 was actually lower than 2019, so it may just be regression to the mean. And it&#x27;s significant in exactly one age&#x2F;gender combination, of about a dozen tested.
cassepipe大约 3 年前
Disclaimer : I have no competencies whatsoever on judging the matter but there are other studies that conclude to increased risk of some kind of cardiac failure, even for young people as a consequence of COVID (something the the first line of the article acknowledges). What possible mechanism could play in even more risk after vaccination ?<p>The only mechanism I am able to imagine would be the COVID spike protein itself since it produced both during the infection and vaccination. But I know biology can be incredibly complicated times. So, provided the results are statically significant since it seems to be the standard, what possible hypotheses can be made ?
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ryandamm大约 3 年前
Can anyone offer insights to how reliable this article is? I don’t know the field and am reduced to looking at superficial signals, like: I see business school bylines and the “see additional publications by this author” links don’t turn up anything… but the Nature imprint seems impressive?<p>Can anyone weigh in on the methodology or data?<p>(Interesting to note that the linked page puts this article in something like the 99th percentile for how much it’s tweeted, which I would put squarely in the “reduces my confidence” category…)
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raverbashing大约 3 年前
It&#x27;s overall interesting, but with the caveat<p>&gt; It is important to note the main limitation of this study, which is that it relies on aggregated data that do not include specific information regarding the affected patients... underlying comorbidities as well as vaccination and COVID-19 positive status<p>Also from the graphs, while the number of events do seem correlated, there are some peaks that are hard to explain
Trouble_007大约 3 年前
search: <i>&gt;scholarly:&#x27;SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 infection cardiovascular event&#x27;&lt;</i> @DDG : &lt;<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;html.duckduckgo.com&#x2F;html&#x2F;?q=scholarly:&#x27;SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 infection cardiovascular event&#x27;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;html.duckduckgo.com&#x2F;html&#x2F;?q=scholarly:&#x27;SARS-CoV-2 CO...</a>&gt;<p>search: <i>&gt;scholarly:&#x27;SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 mRNA vaccine cardiovascular event&#x27;&lt;</i> @DDG : &lt;<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;html.duckduckgo.com&#x2F;html&#x2F;?q=scholarly:&#x27;SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 mRNA vaccine cardiovascular event&#x27;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;html.duckduckgo.com&#x2F;html&#x2F;?q=scholarly:&#x27;SARS-CoV-2 CO...</a>&gt;