I have been watching Tether ever since the Terra implosion. As you know, shortly thereafter tether flash crashed to 95 cents. It has since recovered but it seems to me that it hasn’t recovered all the way. Disclaimer, I have just been checking in on tether on coinmarketcap.com. I have no doubt this isn’t the best way to get an accurate reading of the state of tether.<p>That being said, since the flash crash it looks like tether has been averaging just below $1. Somewhere around 0.9995. That might seem like close enough, but prior to the flash crash tether would regularly fluctuate above $1 by minuscule amounts. It doesn’t seem to every go above $1 now. Does this represent constant slow downward pressure on tether, maybe even traders take advantage of small arbitrage opportunities when the currency fluctuates lower?<p>I’ve also notice that in coinmarketcap there have multiple step-like movements, always downward, in tether’s market cap. These step down movements are roughly in increments of $1B. In total it has lost about $10B. I realize that this is superimposed on the background of the broader crypto ecosystem losing a large amount of market cap. But I guess the worry with tether is that some of it is probably well back with actual USD and some of it is probably backed with sketchy corporate paper. If they have to redeem to cover market cap loses, won’t they have to redeem the high quality backing first, meaning over time the percentage of tether that is sketchily back will increase?<p>Again, I realize the coinmarketcap probable isn’t the best way to be tracking this. What does anyone thing is going on?
A bunch has been written on this in the last month; check Patrick McKenzie (patio11), JP Koning, David Gerard, etc.<p><i>If they have to redeem to cover market cap loses, won’t they have to redeem the high quality backing first, meaning over time the percentage of tether that is sketchily back will increase?</i><p>This may be true; I certainly wouldn't want to be the last one still holding USDT when the music stops. OTOH, it is rumored that Tether creates USDT and loans them out, treating the loan itself as the "backing". What if they recalled and canceled these loans first?<p>Overall I think a smaller market cap of a sketchy asset is better and a gradual wind down is better than a crash but ultimately if the assets don't exist then someone will be taking a haircut.
Lots of big players slowly moving away from tether and that’s putting sell pressure. Unlike USDC or DAI, there’s no 1:1 redeemability to dollars for your average joe, so it requires a few key market makers who have access to tether redemptions to keep the peg, that’s why it’s not a super efficient market.
usdt has always felt like a house of cards. aside from any specific insider knowledge, presumably people got less comfortable holding it after watching ust collapse.<p>i certainly don't plan to touch it, and won't unless there's some incredible opportunity.