TE
科技回声
首页24小时热榜最新最佳问答展示工作
GitHubTwitter
首页

科技回声

基于 Next.js 构建的科技新闻平台,提供全球科技新闻和讨论内容。

GitHubTwitter

首页

首页最新最佳问答展示工作

资源链接

HackerNews API原版 HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 科技回声. 版权所有。

Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

49 点作者 jaspax将近 3 年前

7 条评论

throwawayffffas将近 3 年前
The main flaw of the article is this assumption right here.<p>&gt; &quot;We imagine that the pain these civilians experience will translate into political change—either a change in regime, or a change in regime behavior.&quot;<p>The aim of the sanctions is not regime change, but the degradation of the Russian military&#x27;s ability to wage war.<p>I think the author is observing the current sanctions in the same lens as the sanctions imposed after the occupation of Crimea, where there was a very hand wavy reasoning about integrated deterrence and how the pain of sanctions would make Russia pull out or at least not go forward with further aggression.<p>In my mind there is a very clear distinction in the aim of sanctions before and after beginning of the current Russian offensive, as I said before the aim now is clearly to hinder the offensive, before it was deterrence. I don&#x27;t believe these particular sanctions are aimed at regime change.<p>Furthermore, as has been noted in the comment section of the article, while the strategic bombing -&gt; low morale&#x2F;regime change reasoning has been shown false, I think there is a still a lot of room to investigate how much the strategic bombings affected the targets ability to deploy it&#x27;s forces. It&#x27;s clear that to achieve victory in the context of the second world war there had to be boots on the ground, but that doesn&#x27;t mean that the strategic bombing did not contribute.<p>Similarly because sanctions are not enough to achieve the argued final goal (regime change) that doesn&#x27;t mean they don&#x27;t have an effect.
评论 #31623826 未加载
praptak将近 3 年前
So what&#x27;s wrong with sanctions as an instrument of attrition?
评论 #31617668 未加载
评论 #31617691 未加载
评论 #31618767 未加载
评论 #31618425 未加载
codeflo将近 3 年前
I have two issues with this reasoning.<p>First, as a German (!), I always have a hard time with articles that claim bombing Germany in WW2 somehow wasn’t justified. What would have been the alternative? Leave the regime in power? Concede half or more of Europe? Shrug your shoulders and accept the industrial scale genocide? Note that almost the entire population was part of this murderous machine in some capacity, and to some extent willingly so. To have any hope of democratizing Germany at all, the defeat had to be total. I haven’t seen very credible evidence that this could have been accomplished with milder measures.<p>Second, there’s an important ethical difference between sanctions and strategic bombing. The attacker chooses what to bomb. With sanctions, the target nation can choose which sectors of their economy their limited resources keep going into. Yes, autocracies will reliably loot and starve their population for the benefit of the military and their political friends. But that’s still their choice, not ours, and I think that’s an important distinction in terms of the moral implications.
评论 #31618467 未加载
cudgy将近 3 年前
“the Biden team has hit the right diplomatic notes at each stage of the crisis. Their actions have been substantive—but also measured, proportional, and carefully planned. The purpose of their actions on the security front have been clearly and convincingly articulated. They possess a coherence that our sanctions regime against the Russians lacks.”<p>This is a major flaw in the analysis of the Ukraine situation. The Biden admin has bungled this affair and placed the Ukrainian people in the position of pawns with zero chance of victory who are getting their country blown up to only end up with less land and likely less sovereignty. The administration has focused the entire conflict straight to war, discouraging diplomacy and encouraging brinksmanship.<p>The sanctions were foolishly over estimated when applied to a country like Russia which is one of the most self-sufficient countries in the world with huge trading partners that are not afraid of the US’s empty threats. Is the US going to go after China for trading with Russia while the vast amount of its technology and goods are assembled there? The US gave up its dominance by pushing globalization as a “strategy” that eviscerated its manufacturing of critical hardware and technology. The US is now a paper tiger.
gsatic将近 3 年前
So what&#x27;s the plan when China takes Taiwan?
评论 #31618003 未加载
评论 #31618559 未加载
评论 #31618019 未加载
评论 #31618310 未加载
评论 #31619068 未加载
AndyMcConachie将近 3 年前
Their history of strategic bombing is wrong. They fail to mention that the RAF was developed to primarily bomb civilians in Mesopotamia and elsewhere in the British empire. The development of bombing after WWI was really about imperial maintenance and putting down any internal strife. This can also be said of the Italians in Ethiopia. I think the point is that the technology developed at a time when the need for the Europeans with the technology was to fight imperial wars. Only later did WWII see the methods of bombing that has been used to quell imperial revolt get adapted to war. The Spanish civil war should get a mention here as well. Everyone knows about Guernica, etc.<p>Sanctions are just modern day siege warfare. Go look at the 80 years war between the Dutch and Spanish for some of the longest and most interesting sieges in history. In almost all examples one can find sieges or sanctions almost never result in a local popularion rising up against their local elites and leadership. The fact that this is not more widely discussed in American sanctions discourse is a testament to American war propaganda effectiveness. Name one country where American sanctions have resulted in a local population regime changing their leadership. I can&#x27;t think of any. Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, N Korea, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and of course Russia.<p>Go look at the list and find a single country under US sanctions where the USA has achieved regime change because of sanctions.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;home.treasury.gov&#x2F;policy-issues&#x2F;financial-sanctions&#x2F;sanctions-programs-and-country-information" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;home.treasury.gov&#x2F;policy-issues&#x2F;financial-sanctions&#x2F;...</a><p>Go look at the history of countries the US has sanctioned and try and find one that resulted in regime change. You will not find any.<p>Instead sanctions typically have the effect of prolonging conflict and solidifying the power structures of the local regime and elites. They&#x27;re punitive and they affect the poorest of a country. The UN says the greatest humanitarian disaster right now is in in Yemen, and that&#x27;s directly caused by US and UK sanctions. It won&#x27;t win the war for the Saudis and UAE, but it&#x27;s starving hundreds of thousands of Yemenis.<p>Sanctions against Cuba did not remove Castro. Instead it provided his regime an ability to control food distribution. I have a tremendous amount of respect for the Cuban people and their ability to live under US sanctions, but even if I hated Communism in my bones I would recognise that US sanctions on Cuba have been an abject failure.<p>Black markets and smuggling develop under sanctions and these get controlled by those in power. Sanctions make it much easier for established power structures to survive and thrive. Suddenly people can&#x27;t get fuel, food and other essentials. They need to come to those in power and beg for them. So those in power can decide who gets these essential items, and even better yet, blame their enemies on the fact that they have to be rationed. Sanctions are both a material and propaganda gift to the regimes the US says they want to dethrone.<p>So who benefits from sanctions in the USA, why do they keep imposing them? I think the answer to this question is really complex. Partly because there is both real political will in the USA to see regime change in sanctioned countries and people who benefit materially from sanctions knowing that they will not succeed.<p>If sanctions are so bad at achieving their stated objectives, why does the USG keep imposing them? This is the interesting question.
评论 #31618598 未加载
jmyeet将近 3 年前
&gt; The most important technology of the First World War was not the machine gun but the railroad<p>I disagree. First, the railroad already existed. You can argue its use in war was new. The Germans notably built railroads to the front at huge scale. But this presupposes a relatively static front, which was the reality of WWI. Probably the most important technological development was neither of these things: it was artillery.<p>I cannot recommend enough Dan Carlin&#x27;s <i>Hardcore History</i> podcast. There is a 6 part series called <i>A Blueprint for Armageddon</i> [1] that is well worth the 30+ hours it&#x27;ll take to listen to.<p>Additionally, the full power of railroads (in terms of logistics) wasn&#x27;t unleashed until the 1920s. Why? The invention of the humble pallet. I highly recommend reading this [2].<p>&gt; Today the closest analogue to the logic of the strategic bomber lies in the world of economics. I speak of sanctions.<p>I 100% agree: economic sanctions are violence and not that far removed from strategic bombing. It&#x27;s honestly a little surprising to hear an American saying this.<p>Sanctions ultimately are a form of collective punishment and in many such circumstances we consider that a war crime for good reason. In the 1990s, then US Ambassador to the UN later Us Secretary of STate Madeleine Albright was quoted as saying [3]:<p>&gt; &quot;We have heard that half a million [Iraqi] children have died. I mean, that is more children than died in Hiroshima,&quot; Stahl said. &quot;And, you know, is the price worth it?&quot;<p>&gt; &quot;I think that is a very hard choice,&quot; Albright answered, &quot;but the price, we think, the price is worth it.&quot;<p>The author then goes on to argue (which again is surprising) that sanctions are largely ineffective and will continue to be so in the case of Russia. 100% agree, which is why that even though Putin was and is the bad guy for an unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine, US policy towards Ukraine was completely reckless because we have no effective way to counter an opponent with a nuclear arsenal in armed conflict.<p>All of this was warned about in 2015 [4].<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.dancarlin.com&#x2F;product&#x2F;hardcore-history-50-55-blueprint-for-armageddon-series&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.dancarlin.com&#x2F;product&#x2F;hardcore-history-50-55-blu...</a><p>[2]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cabinetmagazine.org&#x2F;issues&#x2F;52&#x2F;hodes.php" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cabinetmagazine.org&#x2F;issues&#x2F;52&#x2F;hodes.php</a><p>[3]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.newsweek.com&#x2F;watch-madeleine-albright-saying-iraqi-kids-deaths-worth-it-resurfaces-1691193" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.newsweek.com&#x2F;watch-madeleine-albright-saying-ira...</a><p>[4]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4</a>
评论 #31619561 未加载