The only thing missing from your post is this!
<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/18/Bayes%27_Theorem_MMB_01.jpg/800px-Bayes%27_Theorem_MMB_01.jpg" rel="nofollow">http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/18/Bay...</a><p>I must admit, it's been a couple of years since I've glanced at Bayes' theorem but this was an interesting refresher.