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How I Quickly Test and Validate Startup Ideas

205 点作者 dberube超过 13 年前

30 条评论

powertower超过 13 年前
I'm kind of biased against using Google AdWords since they banned my account for no explainable reason (they lack complete customer care to the point where they can't even display the ban message right: <a href="http://www.devside.net/images/adwords-account-suspended.png" rel="nofollow">http://www.devside.net/images/adwords-account-suspended.png</a>), but consider spending more money and getting better validation by going directly to websites specific to your market and buying ad space there.<p>The AdWords traffic is just too broad and "general public" and it's incredibly difficult because to get good CTR (click-through-rate), you actually have to find keywords that produce bad or irrelevant results for the searcher while being on topic, as otherwise the searcher will simply click the organic results and never even see your sponsored result (when was the last time you went to Google, did a search, got good organic results, and decided to skip that and just go to the sponsored link?).<p>AdCenter is a little better IMO, but niche websites are absolute killer since you're no longer screwing around, trying to filter out irrelevant traffic, trying to get the right keywords and bid prices, and making sure your landing pages have the right quality score. The moment you get a low CTR is the moment Google AdWords start increasing prices, stops showing your ads.<p>Go right to the source to test your ideas. It will take more money, but you'll get a confidence level of 95-99% for your validation, rather than something much much less that you'll get using AdWords. It will be quicker too; AdWords keywords can be incredibly difficult and time-consuming to get right.
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wooyi超过 13 年前
Doctors don't buy software on the internet. You can't validate the idea that way. The sales cycle is long and their buying process is totally different from the "convert on the net" SaaS model. I did a startup called Maviq in 2008 for the patient reminder market. There is a v. high barrier to entry in this market for startups.
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vsl2超过 13 年前
I don't know about having "silver bullet" advertisements be your landing page and text ad. It looks suspiciously like spam or some kind of con (think about the majority of "Work From Home" ads). Every reasonably smart person I know wouldn't trust "silver bullet" ads enough to seriously consider paying for the product being advertised. In the particular example, most doctors are supposedly smarter than the average population and so I think the conversion rate would be even lower.<p>I don't claim to know a better way to garner attention through advertisement than eye-catching (yet suspicious) claims, but I think the described method helps you determine the interest level in your product from a small subset (more trusting or naive, depending on your point of view) of your target audience, not your total target audience. Maybe there's a known "naive-to-total" extrapolator that I'm not aware of.
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egiva超过 13 年前
Actually, other people have done this in the past - Timothy Ferriss (the biz guy and author of "The Four Hour Work Week") was famous for using this adwords multivariate testing technique when he was deciding the future title for his book! See a great interview here: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JHzLlvlVmQ" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JHzLlvlVmQ</a>
asmithmd1超过 13 年前
Clicking through to the authors blog home page and reading between the lines a little it looks like he is the founder and was the CTO of Mofuse.com and was kicked out just a week ago. Mofuse took $1.2M from 33 angels this past January so I guess they had something to say.<p>What is the story dberube? Inquiring minds want to know.
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mluiten超过 13 年前
I actually like to add an intermediary step between the landing page and the e-mail form: a "Create an account/Buy now for $X/month/year" button. When people click on it, they get a "Sorry, we're not done yet, but give us your email and you will be notified once we release" + the email form.<p>Not only do you know people are potentially willing to pay X dollars for your product, you can also do a multivariate test on different amounts or pricing schemes to see if they convert differently, giving you some rough idea how much your idea is worth to them. I always add a "Make an account for FREE" as well, as a baseline.
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markbao超过 13 年前
If you're looking for a fast landing page creator like the one mentioned in the article, I'm working on one: <a href="http://seekevidence.com" rel="nofollow">http://seekevidence.com</a>
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wwdevries超过 13 年前
Can you define what you consider a "high conversion percentage" in this stage of testing?
kamikazi超过 13 年前
Fantastic article dberube, couldn't have come at a better time for me. Few queries: a) What would you call a good collection, conversion rate? (Also asked on yr blog) b) Will this work for ideas that might be seasonal? (eg: I am thinking of selling a particular fruit from India online - it's seasonal and the store will operate only abt 4-5 months. If it's successful, I'll see what else I can do with it, but as of now there are no plans). So, have you worked this strategy for any such ideas which are not 24x7? How early before the season do you think I should run this. My season is still 5 months down the line. If I run too early (now-ish) I run the risk of not getting anyone interested as no one is searching for it. c) Can you give a few figures from your 3 experiments about how many visitors you got from adCenter? And their conversion rates? Thanks.
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mva超过 13 年前
I've read about this idea in the 4 hour work week. This is the way Tim Ferris tested his ideas.
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TamDenholm超过 13 年前
Down for me, heres the google cache.<p><a href="http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?sclient=psy-ab&#38;hl=en&#38;biw=1366&#38;bih=566&#38;source=hp&#38;q=cache%3Astartupbound.com%2Fhow-i-quickly-test-and-validate-startup-ideas%2F&#38;pbx=1&#38;oq=cache%3Astartupbound.com%2Fhow-i-quickly-test-and-validate-startup-ideas%2F&#38;aq=f&#38;aqi=g4&#38;aql=1&#38;gs_sm=e&#38;gs_upl=548l2995l0l3380l7l5l0l0l0l0l173l681l1.4l5l0" rel="nofollow">http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?sclient=psy-ab&...</a>
eps超过 13 年前
&#62; <i>If everyone is busy, those calls are often not made.</i><p>I personally have not seen a single doctor's office that does NOT make reminder calls or forgets to make them. Moreover virtually all of them also have a $50 fee penalty for missed appointments (which is never charged, mind you).<p>In other words be careful if you are validatng the idea just for the sake of proving yourself right. Especially when your landing page is so ambiguous in its message, that it's basically detached from the original idea.
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dpcan超过 13 年前
These landing page systems have a lot of room for improvement.<p>Upon getting a name and email address, it would be quite valuable to present the new subscriber with some form of survey. Be it short and multiple choice, but instead of JUST seeing if there is interest, you may be able to find out what aspects of your product bare the most importance.<p>ie If you create a landing page for a new shopping cart product, you may want to ask: Will you be selling digital goods? What country are you in? etc.
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wildbunny超过 13 年前
Using adwords to provide enough traffic to test your product viability is genius...<p>I think the HN effect has taken their site down, though!
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lbl超过 13 年前
I wish you had written this a bit earlier :) I invented a playing card game and was really excited about it because I got good feedback during play testing. I tested it in few bars and they all liked the prototype. So after making some edits to the game rules from the play testing feedback, I went ahead and printed 2000 decks and I have a website where I'm selling the decks ( <a href="http://acardgamewithattitude.com" rel="nofollow">http://acardgamewithattitude.com</a> )<p>I'm not seeing quite the success in selling online like the feedback I got offline.<p>No sure how I would have tested this concept before printing because its a niche market i'm targeting.<p>Now i'm confused what is wrong - Is it the site design - copy on the site - Am I over explaining - Is it not clear if its ia deck of physical cards<p>Can i take the site down and do a teaser like it is going to launch? and then sell it?
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phzbOx超过 13 年前
Really interesting and well written. I particularly liked the part when the author said not to show feature as if they don't <i>buy</i> the silver bullet, they won't buy your product.
jdee超过 13 年前
I'm interested in learning how people go about testing ideas that are difficult to define in the small amount of screen real estate that an ad offers, or dont have a clearly definable customer type.<p>How would one go about testing the waters for 'mass market' applications like Twitter, Google+ etc where the end customer is potentially everybody? I cant see how an ad like 'want to keep in touch with your friends?' would convert at all. Any insight anyone?
roythunder超过 13 年前
One reason I think the advice in this post is valuable is not just to test the startup idea, but also to test the founder's appetite for traffic acquisition.<p>Many technical founders like building products, but those products will fail without the majority of energy directed toward getting traffic. So if you can't get a couple hundred email addresses of interested customers, you can save yourself a lot of time by not going further.
brador超过 13 年前
I don't know what you guys have been drinking last night but HN is full of absolute gold this morning. Great article.
freshfey超过 13 年前
You might be scrapping an idea off just because the landing page wasn't optimized - could this be a possible problem?
mpunaskar超过 13 年前
@dberube<p>I have used same method to collect beta tester for one of my idea. Google adword has given amazing reults so far. Thats why i am interested to know if cost factor the only reason to choose microsoft adcenter over google adwords ?<p>Does it give more ad impressions for less price + better click through rates?
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drudru11超过 13 年前
I think this has been common practice for over 2 years now. Where did you learn this technique from?
ideaoverload超过 13 年前
Zynga's 'ghetto' testing is the same idea, maybe even more radical in details: <a href="http://grattisfaction.com/2010/01/how-zynga-does-customer-development-minimum-viable-product/" rel="nofollow">http://grattisfaction.com/2010/01/how-zynga-does-customer-de...</a>
willpower101超过 13 年前
"If people like your startup idea then odds are you're not thinking broadly enough" -I can't remember who said this.<p>Cool idea though. Definitely works for immediate user solutions. Not sure it would work as well for innovations.<p>"People don't know what they want..." -SJ
fdb超过 13 年前
I've heard this called "pretotyping". The basic idea is <i>not</i> to create a working prototype (which still can take weeks/months/years) but to judge interest.<p><a href="http://www.pretotyping.org/" rel="nofollow">http://www.pretotyping.org/</a>
nikcub超过 13 年前
This is an interesting idea that has done the rounds a few times in the past few years, but it is also a bad idea in most cases.<p>First, if Google find out that you are advertising and collecting email addresses for a product that does not exist - they will ban you. PayPal will do the same if you are collecting any sort of payment information. There is just too much that can go wrong and it can be easily mixed up as being a scam or spam (which it sort of is, if you think about it).<p>You don't want to be banned from Google (or PayPal) - they carry that against your name forever, even if you later signup as a company or with a different account.<p>Second, this can only help you in a market where your potential customer knows what their problem is and knows to look for a solution. In so many cases of successful products this would not have worked. Not for Google, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, Microsoft, iPhone, iPad or most any large and successful product.<p>It can also lead to false hope, or worse, an assumption that a product may not work. Twitter started out as a messaging system for cyclist couriers. If Jack had read Tim Ferris[1], took his idea to test the market with search engine ads, he may have come away unimpressed and believing there was no room for such a product - without even realizing the broader possibilities for such a messaging system.<p>It has become a bit cliche to quote Steve Jobs, but from his bio:<p>&#62; At the end of the presentation someone asked wether he thought they should do some market research to see what customers wanted. "No," he replied, "because customers don't know what they want until we have shown them"<p>The better way to test the market is to actively market (as opposed to passively market - ie. having the market find you) - ie. go out and find your potential customers, the influencers in the market, analysts that cover the market, etc.<p>The whole idea behind minimal viable product is to lower the risk involved in testing a market - so get the MVP built and then promote it, but not just with search engine ads (the part of the market that knows what it wants, likely to be the smallest part) but also by actively reaching out.<p>The post suggests a budget of $20-50 a day just to get some leads, when with that sort of budget ($500-1000) you could just get a first version of the damn product built.<p>You can also find out how many people are searching by just using Trends or a similar product (keyword analyser). The PPC part just means you are paying $10 per email address - contacts that you may never end up using<p>I would like to see that similar posts to this one proposing this idea stress that results from search engine marketing are not the be-all and end-all. The language in this post suggests that the results of search engine marketing for a non-existant product conclude the viability of such a product:<p>&#62; If you weren’t lucky enough to have a high conversion rate you can scrap the idea or rinse and repeat this process and tweak or pivot on the original idea.<p>This should say that your market may not be people searching for the product, not that you need to pivot the idea. This isn't how you validate startup ideas or products, it is how you validate part of a potential marketing strategy for a idea and product.<p>(Edit: and thinking about it, as a customer, I would <i>hate</i> this. If I were searching Google and comparing products that I need for a solution for and bumped into your product and gave my details, after your website suggested that the product exists - only to later find out that it * doesn't exist* - I would be very very pissed off about it. Especially if I needed a product right now and was falsely lead to believe that a solution exists).<p>[1] Tim Ferris is cited a lot as being one of the first to do SE testing (in '4 hour work week'), but I also remember Josh Kopelman writing a blog post about it a while before that as well. IIRC, Ferris suggests that you do this when you already have a product, to test potential new features, pricing ranges etc. The OP probably should have at least cited Ferris in his post, since this isn't exactly a groundbreaking idea and nor is it the first time it has appeared on HN.
inopinatus超过 13 年前
This is a novel online take on the general concept of test marketing.<p>I would love to see a statistical analysis of the results.
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yonasb超过 13 年前
Great post. I've used LaunchRock (widget, not the whole page setup), would definitely recommend it.
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chunkyslink超过 13 年前
Any good alternatives to unbounce?
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dberube超过 13 年前
It's back up -- upgraded the server.