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Downtown S.F. on the brink: It’s worse than it looks

165 点作者 onesafari将近 3 年前

22 条评论

julianeon将近 3 年前
I live in SF &amp; read these articles, which all have a tone of “What is to be done?” They seem reluctant to draw unpopular conclusions, even if those conclusions are inevitable. So here, I’ll tell you what’s going to happen.<p>Downtown as a healthy fully occupied business district is dead. Cause of death: remote work. You can wait 50 years if you want and see if it comes back, but it never will; there’s no going back.<p>You can’t harangue workers into reversing that, and you can’t browbeat business owners into paying for space that goes unused.<p>If you assume a lack of business renters being able to occupy the space or live off the people coming do business there, there’s only one customer base left: residential.<p>“But it’s hard to retrofit”, “we’ll have to redo the laws”, etc. Well, ok. You can wait to see if things will change, but they won’t. Eventually the property owners, and a city in need of tax revenue, are going to have to come to terms with the new reality.<p>When they do, even if it’s three decades from now, there will be more housing in that area. It will keep the streets filled, it will keep crime down, and it will bring in tax revenue… eventually. It’s anybody’s guess how long that will take, however.
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epistasis将近 3 年前
I&#x27;m still absolutely furious that SF managed the boom times by handing over massive amounts of cash to landlords and property owners, by restricting construction, that came directly out of the pockets of workers and has resulted in massive displacement.<p>Sure, the tax revenue looked great, but it happened in a way that caused great human suffering by making occupancy in the city zero sum, and awarding it to only those who had the most money to pay. That&#x27;s not how it had to be, and choosing a zero-sum economic system rather than positive sum was foolish, and only meant to appease those with conservative views on construction. And by basing tax revenues on the business cycle, SF is now at such great risk, with huge social spending needed to repair the damage it inflicted with this unnecessary zero-sum system.<p>Sadly, those who will be hurt the most by a potential downturn are not those who benefited by setting up a bad system. A downturn will help nearly no one, and cause great suffering. I feel a little sick in my stomach when I hear some hoping for a downturn, either as a chance for them to finally buy real estate, or as a chance for S.F. to be made great again by returning to some imagined past. Both of these are very unlikely, especially the second.
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nathanaldensr将近 3 年前
How about <i>this</i> false dichotomy:<p>&gt; <i>&quot;My biggest fear is the city either has to slash spending on, say, police, or it aggressively puts up taxes on businesses to cover the shortfall and drives them out of the city,&quot; he said.</i><p>It&#x27;s always &quot;we&#x27;ll have to slash spending on basic city functions!&quot; or &quot;we&#x27;ll have to raise your taxes!&quot; but <i>never</i> &quot;we&#x27;ll have to cut all these unsustainable social policies!&quot;
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forthwall将近 3 年前
I really hope L Breed and her leadership approve more residential conversions of office spaces in downtown. A few developers are interested but there seems to be a holdup for whatever reason. SF has already had some successful conversions like 100 Van Ness.<p>While I don&#x27;t think that is a surefire way of fixing dtsf but it is a start. The superdense neighborhood of chinatown and somewhat dense neighborhood of little italy are pretty lively still, probably because everyone lives above the commercial and retail spaces that exist there.<p>(There&#x27;s not much commercial offices in those neighborhoods but there&#x27;s a few, especially between california and bush)
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RcouF1uZ4gsC将近 3 年前
&gt; Some commercial real estate firms say that as interest in opening businesses downtown has dropped, it has risen in other areas of the city.<p>&gt; “We had our best year in 2021,” said Santino DeRose, managing broker at Maven real estate. “The neighborhoods by far, where people lived and worked, came back the fastest.”<p>This actually might be a good thing. If the city gets optimized for people who want to live there verses people who are forced by their job to work in the city, in the long term it will be better for everyone and relieve some of the upward pressure on housing.
hedora将近 3 年前
The solutions seem pretty simple:<p>- Add housing<p>- Add staffed public toilets<p>- Pilot office conversions that assume only half the workers show up on a given day.
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LeanderK将近 3 年前
Why is nobody living there? To me as a european, it looks just like a usual party of a city. Small, individual shops on the floor with offices or homes above. But apparently there are only offices, how? Zoning?<p>No wonder it&#x27;s struggling with remote work, there&#x27;s no incentive to go there. If somebody would be living there, then there would always be someone around to shop, drink or go to work.
CamperBob2将近 3 年前
Having just spent an hour reading it and following various links, I&#x27;d rank this as a don&#x27;t-miss article on the subject:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theatlantic.com&#x2F;ideas&#x2F;archive&#x2F;2022&#x2F;06&#x2F;how-san-francisco-became-failed-city&#x2F;661199&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theatlantic.com&#x2F;ideas&#x2F;archive&#x2F;2022&#x2F;06&#x2F;how-san-fr...</a><p>The headline makes it sound like an exercise in question-begging, but it really isn&#x27;t, as the author makes clear.
inamberclad将近 3 年前
&gt; “I’m surprised by how slowly the mayor is bringing back the public workforce,” Moretti said. Requiring a full return would set an example for the private sector, increase BART ridership, “and it would be a shot in the arm for the small businesses that have been struggling for two years.”<p>AKA offloading the costs onto individuals by forcing them to show up to work the old way. The city needs to pivot to focusing on its full time residents and less of the business sector.
Thorentis将近 3 年前
The issue with everybody saying &quot;just add housing&quot; is that SF is becoming unappealing as a place to live for other reasons too. Rampant crime and homeless are big issues. Nobody wants to move to a city with the level of crime that SF now has, when that city is also seriously talking about defunding the police.
olliej将近 3 年前
I live in Oakland, so have awareness but obviously not direct exposure to SF&#x27;s current D.A. problems - it seems like SF voted in a person they thought would be a DA that would reduce excessive prison, juvenile-&gt;adult conversion, better diversion to mental health support, etc.<p>It turned out what they actually got was a DA that literally did not do his job, and just had literally everyone arrested put back on the street. Apparently also trying to get his father out of criminal charges as well?<p>That goes a long way to explain the <i>overwhelming</i> recall in last? weeks election.
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diogenescynic将近 3 年前
San Francisco is self-destructing and sabotaging its own success. Instead of fixing crime and quality of life issues, they&#x27;ve actively made them worse or gas-lighted residents and done nothing at all. I&#x27;ve always thought it was insane paying the prices of SF to live in squalor and near so much crime. BART is also a completely miserable experience. I don&#x27;t think anyone wants to commute into SF or live there if they don&#x27;t absolutely have to. Maybe during the next recession, employers will have more leverage to require more in-office work, but I definitely think employees&#x2F;talent who can work remote are going to when possible. I know I am and that I never plan to commute back to SF or another South Bay campus ever again. I&#x27;ll take a pay cut to keep working remotely if I have to.<p>If SF wanted to clean things up, they&#x27;d have cops walking a beat in the Tenderloin--something I never say in the 12 years I lived there. I think the lack of any political competition has led to politicians who don&#x27;t give a shit about what&#x27;s best for residents and can just coast off the vote blue no matter who mentality.
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twelvechairs将近 3 年前
The real solution to take the edge of these sort of impacts is some kind of regional &#x27;Bay Area&#x27; or &#x27;NorCal&#x27; planning and funding, somewhere between the state and the cities. America is a little unique in the developed world for lacking decision bodies at this level as well as having very local (&#x27;city&#x27; based) taxation decisions [n.b. I generally think this is good].
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1270018080将近 3 年前
I think this is a blessing. Cities have been designed for commuters instead of the people living in them since white flight in the 20th century. Just look at all of the metrics in the article. It&#x27;s all about commuters and the city&#x27;s dependence on them. Now, macroeconomic factors are forcing cities across the country to actually serve the people living in them. And it&#x27;s great. Yeah there will be growing pains and this decade could get ugly, but the cities that come out of it healthy might be great places to live.
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mbgerring将近 3 年前
San Francisco city planners made an idiotic decision about 50 years ago to push housing out of downtown, replace it with office buildings, and build gigantic freeways to bring people in from their new suburban homes. Now the chickens are coming home to roost. Many, many people fought hard against this stupid decision at the time, and city planners should have listened. Hopefully, somebody learns a lesson here, and we don’t have to repeat this same cycle another 50 years from now.
Zigurd将近 3 年前
It was a crazy valuation-driven fashionable thing to have high tech offices in a city center. The whole Bay Area went from being a reasonably efficient place for high tech businesses to an irrational &quot;that&#x27;s how we do things&quot; consequence of funders wanting everything within a stone&#x27;s throw of Sand Hill Road. Urban revival is good but it was taken waaay too far and made unaffordable. &quot;Affordable&quot; isn&#x27;t going to come back without a crisis.
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xivzgrev将近 3 年前
Events are not going to work. I like the idea of converting office space to mixed use &#x2F; residential. Kill two birds with one stone. Even tho there’s not much to do downtown per se, as neighborhood living prices keep increasing, downtown will eventually look like attractive given its central location.
yieldcrv将近 3 年前
The market is telling you everything you needed to know.<p>People aren&#x27;t in San Francisco because they don&#x27;t want to be in San Francisco.<p>Even the people that &quot;loved San Francisco&quot; didn&#x27;t even like things in the actual city limits, talk to nearly anybody about what they like there and they&#x27;ll pick an endless list of things from the Pacific Ocean to the border of Nevada. Other cities aren&#x27;t like that. Red Flag 1 through 10.<p>There are people that like things in the city limits, 30 years ago. You&#x27;ll know because they&#x27;ll tell you about how a nice neighborhood used to be the most hellish thing you could ever imagine and would never visit, <i>but at least artists used to lived there.</i> Which is what they fawn over. As if someone else was going to pay for this $100 haircut, but if I see any gentrifiers I&#x27;ll bark at them for you! scouts honor.<p>And finally you begin to notice that almost all the other people that think they like(d) that city don&#x27;t have an objective view of other metropolises to compare it with. Oh, I get it, this is &quot;The City&quot; for that region that people aspire for, because its 600 miles of <i>frontier</i> from there to Portland, Oregon. A couple aspirational people from Central Valley, &quot;escaping&quot; (their words), a bunch of economic migrants from across the US, visa holders that have no choice in the matter. Okay. Interesting. There were very few people from other cities that really just liked all the nature, and again, fewer of those are talking about the nature within the city limits. All that masked by actual geographic scarcity exacerbated by artificial scarcity to make the high prices seem like there was something to covet? Yeah, everyone that could leave has left.<p>&gt; The transit system’s looming deficit has given rise to whispers of a new regional tax to fill the gap.<p>death spiral.<p>Obviously this is just my experience, I bet many will have seen something similar. I don&#x27;t think the city government policies are as big of a factor as people think. People saw an option to leave due to the nature of their work, and did.
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infamouscow将近 3 年前
SF is in a death spiral entirely of it&#x27;s own making. And unfortunately none of the mechanisms needed to fix it are in place. High taxes and pervasive violent crime outweigh any remaining benefit the city has to offer for those that fled to Austin, Miami, and Nashville.
henning将近 3 年前
The city planners made housing unaffordable by design. They chose office space over housing. They made it so that getting lunch downtown costs at least $20. Now they&#x27;ll choke on used needles and urine. Good riddance.
238475235243将近 3 年前
Not one mention of the recalled DA.
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starik36将近 3 年前
A large article and not a single mention of crime.
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