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Car Repos Are Exploding. That’s a Bad Omen

35 点作者 jbonniwell将近 3 年前

10 条评论

iav将近 3 年前
Used Car prices have increased a lot in the pandemic due to the chip shortage, logistics bottlenecks, and rising demand. So most car loans that predate 2020 are in the money - the car can be sold to fully cover the loan. But cars purchased in 2021 are not necessarily in positive equity. This is why repos are growing and why they are mostly for car loans originated in the last two years.
urn_piqoq将近 3 年前
Here I was imagining actual explosives hampering repo efforts, when they merely speak of a rising rate of auto repos. OK. I fell for it.
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shakezula将近 3 年前
That’s an interesting data point. makes me wonder what other unconventional metrics could be considered to get a temperature on our economy.
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UncleEntity将近 3 年前
At some point it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to pay for a car you can’t afford to put gas in to actually drive.<p>Back during the last pre-recession gas hike people couldn’t even give away their monster SUVs that they also couldn’t afford to put gas in. I was going to buy one for super-cheap but ‘cash for clunkers’ took care of that problem before I got around to it.
nunez将近 3 年前
Emphasis mine:<p>&gt; Most of the loans on recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas origination dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard times at different times; *loan-to-value ratios, or the amount financed relative to the value of the vehicle, are around 140%, versus a more normal 80%*; and many of the loans were extended to buyers who had temporary pops in income during the pandemic.<p>That&#x27;s CRAZY!<p>This means that lenders were, on average, willing to lend not only the full cost of the vehicle, but also up to 40% of the equity of a previous vehicle! (This sounds like a practice that is more common in subprime land, but still, this suggests that you can basically get a loan with weak proof of being able to pay it back).<p>This article reminds me of the Air France 447 crash [1].<p>The long and short of it is that the pilots thought they were level based on the data from the pitot tube sensor, but because it was frozen and a SPOF, they not only got bad data, but they didn&#x27;t know that the aircraft was actually tilting slowly downwards for hundreds of miles! Eventually, the aircraft stalled unrecoverably and crashed into the ocean.<p>Auto manufacturers have been increasing prices on new vehicles (and dealers on used vehicles) partly due to supply chain tightening, but also due to a perceived increase in people&#x27;s willingness-to-pay in response to the tightening and temporary pops in income. However, this article suggests that, like the pitot tube in the AF447 disaster, their WTP data is not only wrong, but sending them the opposite way (and taking their financial forecasting and future stock prices with them when they inevitably bring prices back down to Earth).<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Air_France_Flight_447" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Air_France_Flight_447</a>
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trenning将近 3 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;13pYR" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;13pYR</a>
javajosh将近 3 年前
Why do people borrow money to buy a car? Why not save money, maybe invest in something safe(ish), and buy your car in cash, preferably used?<p>I get it that people get emotional about cars, but good heavens, this impulse puts you in the hole for years. It&#x27;s almost as bad as cheating on your wife (and far, far worse than cheating on a gf).
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troymc将近 3 年前
When I read the headline, I thought &quot;car repos&quot; were git repositories associated with car software, such as self-driving car software. Maybe those repos are getting really huge, i.e. with lots of code, hard to maintain?<p>But that&#x27;s not the story at all!
stefan_将近 3 年前
Why would someone extend a loan to people based on one-time or limited time stimulus payments?
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toomuchtodo将近 3 年前
Stimulus money papered over a weaker underlying economy, and the bill is coming due (no pun intended).<p>My note: even though employment and wages are strong, the aggregate consumer is not as strong as your usual indicators appear to be.