New York City Is a Lot Safer Than Small-Town America

73 点作者 helloworld将近 3 年前

15 条评论

ecshafer将近 3 年前

You are more likely to die sure. But this is kind of lying with statistics. Cars are a huge issue though that are largely ignored in society, which I won't dispute. BUT lets look at what people talk about when they say safe. They don't necessarily mean just that they won't be murdered or not. But also if they will randomly be jumped, robbed, burgled, punched in the knock out game or hit with a brick, etc. Non-violent crime, and violent but not murder crime is probably much higher in the cities.And I say this as someone that likes cities.

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woodruffw将近 3 年前

NYC is remarkably safe, and it could still be easily safer: 124 pedestrians died after being hit by cars in 2021[1], and 2022 looks like it'll continue the trend. The city has a clearance rate of just 3% for hit-and-runs, despite the extraordinary amount of money we've gifted the NYPD for comprehensive surveillance.Anecdotally, I see much more petty disregard for traffic laws by cars (including large vans and trucks) than I did before COVID.[1]: <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/last-year-was-deadliest-on-nyc-streets-in-nearly-a-decade-report-claims/3516683/" rel="nofollow">https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/last-year-was-deadlies...</a>

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s1artibartfast将近 3 年前

I don't think I agree with their definition of external causes. Getting caught in a lawn mower or a death due to your own driving isn't an external cause in the same way that homicide is.

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Kon-Peki将近 3 年前

That's a pretty good take on the data (it's incredible how bad Baltimore is).But we already knew that people worry about getting held up at gunpoint in the big city, but not so much about crashing their car on the way to the big night out (or even worse, on the way home).I live in a small village and there is currently discussion going on about extending the legal amount of time a person can keep holiday decorations on their house. On one side are the folks that think Christmas lights are way too tacky in February or March and on the other side are the folks that say the weather could easily make it too dangerous to get them down within time limits (never mind how dumb and overbearing it is to have time limits in the first place). I lived in Chicago for 20 years and some people had holiday lights on their million dollar condo balconies year round - because it is never safe to take them down lol (kidding).

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paulpauper将近 3 年前

This is yet another one of those counterintuitive findings. Similar to the UK being poorer than the poorer state in the US. Rural areas tend to have a lot of homelessness , violence, addiction, and other problems and not enough police. The notion that blue states are secular and degenerate and red rural areas are exemplars of morality and salubrity are wrong. Both urban and rural areas have problems.

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gojomo将近 3 年前

There's a ton of fishy things in this methodology. To borrow from my Twitter comments (<a href="https://twitter.com/gojomo/status/1534554504275714051" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/gojomo/status/1534554504275714051</a>) when this article was new:I'm open to the idea NYC safer than its reputation; I appreciate NYC a lot, and live in another city, San Francisco, with a 'meaner' rep than I think true/fair.But, there's a bunch of things that make me suspicious of the main graph/rankings:(1) Leaving out suicide & drug ODs. These vary a lot by region, so whether a region creates motive & opportunity to throw your life away is a relevant 'safeness' indicator, for most people.(2) Leaving out "accidental poisonings" & "falls". These may hide violence & other dangerous living conditions, especially in dense cities, or marginal communities, where many simply don't bother to report to authorities every assault - but do still have to seek medical care for an ‘accident’. People in "small town America" die of these things too, so why shouldn't a 'safeness' metric include them?(3) The author uses a vague catchall exclusion category "sequelae of external causes of morbidity and mortality" that risks hiding relevant dangers, including even aftereffects of earlier violent-injuries, depending on coding standards of exact/immediate cause-of-death.(4) For the widely-forwarded horizontal bar-graph titled "America’s Safest Metro Areas, but not all the analyses, the author uses the whole "New York-Newark, NY-NJ-PA" metro. The nearest part of PA to NYC seems to be Delaware Water Gap, 80 miles/1h40m away! So this winds up including a lot of 'small towns' & suburbs, not really "NYC" itself.Altogether, when there's this many footnotes about a custom & perhaps idiosyncratic-to-the-author definition of "external causes", there's reason for pause before shouting a pleasingly-contrarian result from the rooftops.I asked the Bloomberg author for details of the ICD-10 codes used in his custom definitions – <a href="https://twitter.com/gojomo/status/1534624384102461440" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/gojomo/status/1534624384102461440</a> – but he did not respond.

xbar将近 3 年前

I am glad this was posted in Opinion on Bloomberg.Drugs, cars, suicide, falls, and murder kill rural folks more than New Yorkers. Drugs and cars seem to be the outsized killers, based on the data provided.I would like to see the data about where people died, not where they lived, as part of these measurements. It might not tell you where to live, but it would tell you where not to go.

systemvoltage将近 3 年前

I am curious, on surface it is appealing to use per capita numbers including the central point in the original article, but, what do you think about 1) The density of people is vastly different between some small wrecked town in Missouri vs. NYC 2) Yes, fewer X/capita, but does that really matter when you witness, experience living in an overall dangerous (absolute, not per capita) place that the chance of a dangerous activity happening within 5 blocks of your current position in NYC is far more?Shouldn't we also consider the density of people and exposure to crime? What good is it to live in a place where you're surrounded by crime in close proximity? Kowloon walled city [1] probably had less per capita crime as an extreme example of population density.[1] <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kowloon_Walled_City" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kowloon_Walled_City</a>

Justsignedup将近 3 年前

Whats important to note here:NYC has a FUCKTON OF PEOPLE. And crime isn't uniformaly spread among it all. Some small sub-sections could be accounting for dispraportionately more than others. So with both of those things, the liklihood of a crime happening is very high. But not per 100k people.That's the big difference. If there is 1 shooting per 100k people, and there are 5 million people around, that's 50 shootings. Vs if you have only 10,000 people around. At 10,000 people, you might see a shooting every 5 years, but proportionately that's double the NYC rate.That's where the visibility vs reality is so counter-intuitive.Also interestingly enough, I see A LOT of homeless (I work near a shelter). And they are indeed crazy looking. But honestly the worst they do is yell at you, and often its because they haven't had real human contact in months. Just imagine being isolated inside a massive crowd.

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user3939382将近 3 年前

Nope. Just moved from 15 years in Upper East Side. People that should be in an insane asylum are walking around everywhere. One of these guys was recently walking around daily attacking random people unprovoked. And this is in an expensive area of the city.Go walk around 86th btwn Lex and 3rd at night and let me know what your study says then.NYC is dangerous, filthy, and extremely expensive. Every day I’m thankful I’m out of there.

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exabrial将近 3 年前

This is so delusional it's laughable.My parents have left their car doors unlocked, their house wide open, keys on the dash, money in plain sight, for 40+ years. Not once, not even even once, has a theft occurred.Violent crime however is a certain reality in NYC.

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quickthrower2将近 3 年前

Also you earn more in a big city and that actually makes you safer (or the opportunity to be safer) in many ways.

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IceHegel将近 3 年前

I live in NY. Most people in NY will not agree with this article.This is not because sensationalist media has successfully tricked them into thinking there is more crime than there is, but because they have directly experienced the rise in crime in their daily lives.

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betwixthewires将近 3 年前

Is it against HN rules to just flat out call bullshit on an article?

c_o_n_v_e_x将近 3 年前

Publication owned by former Mayor of New York city publishes article that states "New York City is a lot safer than Small-Town America."No conflict of interest here.