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Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climatechange scenarios

44 点作者 kitkat_new将近 3 年前

5 条评论

fortytwo79将近 3 年前
Okay, now someone needs to do the same study with innocuous end game scenarios. (I know this study links to one other paper that makes this case, but I can&#x27;t access it, and the abstract has a biased tone)<p>If you&#x27;re going to explore worst-case, so you can think through preparedness, then you should also consider the trivial case to make sure we aren&#x27;t over-responsive either.
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mikewarot将近 3 年前
High deviance opinion to follow. I hope I&#x27;m very, very wrong about this. I&#x27;ve just ingested a large dose of Peter Zeihan&#x27;s work, so I may be de-ranged.<p>Russian gas infrastructure has a high chance of collapse within the next 12 months.<p>China has a high chance of societal collapse within the next 60 months<p>It is likely 500,000,000+ people will see food scarcity before then end of 2022.<p>Go back and read the prediction threads here from December 2019 about the oncoming 2020 decade. There&#x27;s NO hint of the pandemic.
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photochemsyn将近 3 年前
This article by some of the same authors in this one is perhaps more accessible:<p>(2019) &quot;Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against&quot;<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;d41586-019-03595-0" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;d41586-019-03595-0</a><p>&gt; &quot;The palaeo-record shows global tipping, such as the entry into ice-age cycles 2.6 million years ago and their switch in amplitude and frequency around one million years ago, which models are only just capable of simulating... Now we are strongly forcing the system, with atmospheric CO2 concentration and global temperature increasing at rates that are an order of magnitude higher than those during the most recent deglaciation.&quot;<p>The central issue for human civilization is just how fast these changes are going to happen. Currently it takes about ten years for the warming signal to overrule the natural variability, for example a running 5-year average shows clear warming if you center each average ten years apart, i.e. 2008-2012 is clearly warmer than 1998-2002 and so on. Can humans adapt to this rate of warming over the next 100 years without enduring some degree of civilizational collapse, population reduction, etc.? Who knows. That&#x27;s what&#x27;s in the pipeline though, no longer any doubt about it. The real uncertainties are whether there might be any radical spikes in extreme weather or warming rates along this trajectory.<p>&gt; &quot;Atmospheric CO2 is already at levels last seen around four million years ago, in the Pliocene epoch. It is rapidly heading towards levels last seen some 50 million years ago — in the Eocene — when temperatures were up to 14 °C higher than they were in pre-industrial times. It is challenging for climate models to simulate such past ‘hothouse’ Earth states.&quot;<p>The rational thing to do, given our current state of knowledge, would be to institute a crash program to replace 3% of global fossil fuel use per year with a similar production of renewable energy capacity per year, which would require global coordinated industrial production at a truly massive scale, but humans are not rational actors, as economists have demonstrated.
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evelynsalt将近 3 年前
Peak energy deserves more discussion. The world uses 150 petawatt-hours which will be 300 petawatt-hours in 45 years.<p>No matter what we do, what energy source we use, we cannot meet these exorbitant demands for energy.<p>e.g. you&#x27;d have to build 1031 nuclear reactors per year for 45 years starting today to generate 300 petawatt-hours.
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xnx将近 3 年前
Dupe: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=32323757" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=32323757</a>