John Gruber Has Some Career Advice For Developers

I was sad to see that Gruber couldn't step out of his Apple bubble to tackle this topic (or any topic, ever), so I will:<p>Everyone who thinks "I should be developing for platform X" is thinking far too small. Take a look around you.. how many of the great companies were formed developing for a particular platform (unless it's their own)? Almost none. In 10 years, do you want to be the old and busted equivalent of the MFC expert whose software was hot in year 2000?<p>You don't make the Googles, Facebooks, Twitters, of the world by developing <i>just</i> for iOS. Or <i>just</i> for Android. If that's your business plan, tear it up and start over. Because $0.99 a pop doesn't amount to jack-all unless you're Angry Birds. And even they, if they got $1 for each of their 500MM downloads, have still not made as much as <i>Modern Warfare 3 made last week</i> ($738MM in revenue).<p>Go create a market. Stop being part of Apple's/Google's market for drumming up hardware sales and/or serving ads.

At the risk of being a cynical ass, let's not forget that this is basically Gruber playing the modern day equivalent of Levi Strauss: "Come to California/the App Store, you'll get amazingly rich! And while you're here, I am sure you would be interested in some clothing and dry goods/a $6,500 ad on the most influential Apple blog."

I don't want to under-estimate the importance of movable type...but what has Gruber developed? Looking at the list at <a href="http://daringfireball.net/projects/" rel="nofollow">http://daringfireball.net/projects/</a> doesn't exactly fill me with shock and awe. I'd imagine with his huge following in the apple community he could put almost anything on the app store and it would sell. Can someone enlighten me? I guess my meta-point is, why am I reading software development career advice from someone who doesn't seem to be a developer?

"One simple way to look at it is that there are far more people who've never bought an iPhone and who've never bought an iPad, who will in the next five years than all of us who've already bought at least one to this point."<p>That's one simple way to look at it. Another slightly less simple way is that the ones that already have Apple devices are the savviest, hippest, and spendiest consumers around, and you can't possibly hope to milk as much money per person from the ones that adopt later.

It would be interesting to know, why being an Apple developer is favourable to being any other type of a developer? For example, android market share is already larger than Apple devices, and people still spend lots of time in front of traditional web browsers.<p>You can still make fortunes and/or have an interesting career with other platforms and technologies too.

Gruber is like a person who really enjoys eating cupcakes. He knows all about cupcakes, and even goes so far as to think he knows how to make them. He's probably baked a few things here and there. Sadly, he also thinks his 'expertise' on all things cupcakes makes him an all round bonafide chef.

I am trying to figure out why don't Gruber himself listen to his own advice and develop iPhone/iPad app already.<p>I mean, writing good technical reviews and opinions about iOS is a very nice thing. But give advise to mass developers should be done from experience, rather than theory.<p>As for the advice itself, it is right that in five years from now, mobile devices will be all over the place and today's sales volumes are just the iceberg's tip, yet, a developer should think about the opportunity of "mobile-computing" rather than a particular "mobile device". For me, it is a web developer who decide his web apps are to be working with chrome browsers only, since the number of chrome installations today is nothing comparing to what it will be in 5 years from now, and simply ignoring safari, firefox (and even ie, oops).

Someone who calls themselves an Apple developer and who doesn't work for Apple needs to consider expanding their horizons. Mobile developer? That's a little better. Or just, developer. It's a great time to be a developer.

The pool of revenue is still small: Since the creation of the app store in July 2008 to July this year, Apple has paid out $2.5 billion to developers and my projected payout for 2011 is $1.995B.<p>Even so, competition is fierce. In May this year there were 85,560 unique developers writing apps for the store.<p>Having said that, gold rushes are how big cities are built.

&#62;This is like being a Rock and roll musician in the late sixties. This is like being a film maker in the seventies following Scorsese, Coppola, Steven Spielberg, George Lucas (when he was a saint).<p>That's a hilarious sell. Better not mention the bigger, even faster growing Android market.

I usually find Gruber's tone to be arrogant and unnecessarily facetious. But I think his analogy is great..<i>"This is like being a Rock and roll musician in the late sixties. This is like being a film maker in the seventies..."</i>

This might be true of Apple, but it is <i>definitely</i> true of both the software industry and theoretical CS. The industry is expanding--computers are getting cheaper and more plentiful so we need more and more software. Since we also have more computational power in our hands, we can do more and more interesting things with computers.<p>Theoretical computer science is also in an exciting time--it is a nascent field with many exciting discoveries and inventions to be made even without gigantic budgets. I think it's something like physics in the early 20th century, before they started needing gigantic particle accelerators and the like (I'm sure physics is still exciting and I'm just showing my ignorance, but I think there's a parallel nonetheless).<p>Right now is a perfect time to be a developer or computer scientist anywhere, not just at Apple.

tldr; John Gruber endorses iOS.

This is like being a Bee Gees clone in the late 1970s!<p>No disrespect intended to the kings of disco, but being a successful in a fashion bubble doesn't make you cool or give you shelf-life. I hate this sort of talking up. Gruber has been really hard to stomach since iOS took off.<p>"unless something unbelievable, dramatic changes" - You should expect surprise and drama in a walled garden. Facebook apps have been a lasting source of substantial revenue for only a few companies.<p>Why has this story got 118 points?

By that logic, it's a much better time to be an Android developer as long as you support 2.2 and up.<p>You bring the dynamite, I'll bring the pickaxe &#38; canary, let's gold rush!

tldr; Develop for the App Store and you could be famous and make loads of money like &#60;insert cultural icon&#62;, or don't and you might just regret your entire life.

It may sound incredibly frivolous now, but he's right. Irrespective of Apple or iOS, this is the time to be doing something <i>more</i>. I think the message here goes beyond just developing for iOS, but rather, for everything. Build something that you love, work for a company where you feel like you're doing something worthwhile. Whatever you do, make sure you're working on something that makes you say "fuck yeah." Don't neglect what's about to happen. We're about to see a major shift in technology and for those who are truly passionate about it, you'll want to be a part of it.

I feel this way too just not about Apple products, but about HTML.<p>These surely are great days to be a web developer. HTML5, CSS3 and Javascript coupled with great browser support. It feels like there is so much that can be achieved!

&#62;<i>"This is like being a Rock and roll musician in the late sixties."</i><p>In the mid 80's I used to see into Bobby Peterson of The McCoys at various parties around Gainesville.<p>Hopefully, it is a poor simile.<p>[<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_McCoys" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_McCoys</a>]

You could substitute Facebook App in there and moved the clock back about 3-4 years and it would read pretty much identical to blog posts back then.

The bottom 80% of apps split just 3% of the revenue.<p>From <a href="http://www.fastcompany.com/1792313/striking-it-rich-in-the-app-store-for-developers-its-more-casino-than-gold-mine" rel="nofollow">http://www.fastcompany.com/1792313/striking-it-rich-in-the-a...</a><p>Developer Daniel Markham calls iPhone development “App Store Roulette,” and Andy Finnell of the software studio Fortunate Bear cautions against hoping for App Store success. “You’re betting a lot of this on luck, and the odds are stacked against you," Finnell says. "You’d have better odds playing slots at a casino.”<p>Indeed, as much as app development has been called a gold rush, there is an equally loud theory that it operates more like a casino.<p>“The closest thing I’ve seen to a ‘business model’ for marketing iPhone apps is to advertise like crazy until you get into the top 50,” says David Barnard of AppCubby. “Once you’re there, the top 50 list will start generating its own buzz...But that’s not a business model, that’s like rolling the dice at a casino.”

This sounds like an advertisement to come panning for gold in 1854, years after the gold rush had begun. I think the iTunes app store story is practically over by this point. The app store is long-since saturated with useless gimmicky fart apps, and Apple's force grip on the development process will stifle innovation which is already spilling back into the web via HTML5 and WebGL.

Everything he said can pretty much be said about the web, too. Along with that comes the fact that of these millions of news users, hardly anyone will want to pay a dime for anything.<p>That was the beautiful thing about developing software in the 90's: people were still willing to pay for stuff, you just had to figure out the (often insurmountable) distribution. Now, it seems like the only way to make a meaningful income is to insert yourself between layers of large business.