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On the rationality of divination practices (2021)

29 点作者 larve超过 2 年前

4 条评论

retrac超过 2 年前
The mention of the I Ching reminds me of the Shang dynasty of early China. Divination played a central role in the ruling class&#x27;s political authority. Among other techniques, questions for the ancestors of the ruler, as well as other beings, would be written on ox shoulder-bones and tortoise shells, heated, and the pattern of cracks created through the text would be analyzed for the answer.<p>The Shang were quite rational about it. All the results were recorded and analyzed. Ancestors who failed to yield good results would be bribed, punished, or ignored. Good results would encouraged before, and rewarded after, with various sacrifices. The oracle bone texts [1] themselves offer a unique insight, quite unlike anything in the world, kind of like if we had a collection of prayer notes or tarot readings for the President.<p>Anyway, it occurred to me that all this may have actually, well, worked. The whole process -- the record keeping, extensive reflection on the issue, discussions, subconscious influences on the interpretation, a pragmatic &quot;well does it work?&quot; attitude -- create a system for analysis of issues that, by means entirely other than what they thought, actually worked better than chance, in terms picking the right option.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Oracle_bone" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Oracle_bone</a>
gumby超过 2 年前
Some years ago I was working on solar powered water pumps in California&#x27;s Central Valley. The valley is irrigated by the California Aqueduct and also by groundwater (it sits on top of an aquifer).*<p>Turns out most of the farmers use &quot;witchers&quot; -- people with divining rods. Well, not all rods, some use a willow stick, yes, some use a wire coat hanger, and others, well, anything goes.<p>I asked one of these farmers -- a retired navy officer with a couple of graduate degrees how will it worked (his guy was the wire coat hanger guy). He said, &quot;well, he can never tell me how deep to drill but when he finds a location there&#x27;s invariably water.&quot;<p>* yes, they are pulling out water that flowed in 20,000 years ago faster than it&#x27;s being replaced...and the dry parts collapse.
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kelseyfrog超过 2 年前
Have ever felt like you&#x27;re in a rut when it comes to figuring ouy life problems, or that you need a new perspective, or have ever flipped a coin and while it was in the air realized what outcome you really wanted? If so, divination is a tool to generate ideas to get out of that rut or offer new perspectives, or help make up ones mind.<p>True belief is not a requirement or may even get in the way. Divination is simply a procedural generation technique for new ideas and interpretations.
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devwastaken超过 2 年前
The easiest method to discredit divination is that if it were real in any context, that context can be described, a procedure can be drawn, and we can make tools to do it. &quot;Science&quot; is the method of figuring and describing. Diviners scoff, but cards did not always exist for divination, that is a modern creation. So why not an app?
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