Housing markets are now set to 20%-25% home price declines, finds Moody’s

In Australia the Reserve Bank predicted a fair chance of 40% declines nationwide 2020.<p>Fast forward two years and house prices are up 30% due to their actions along with government intervention. Hundreds of billions pissed down the drain preventing recession at all costs, with absolutely nothing to show for it.<p>How long are Western societies willing to kick this can down the road? At some point the youth will riot. It&#x27;s intergenerational theft plain amd simple.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bannerassetmanagement.com&#x2F;rba-modeled-40-fall-in-residential-market-why-are-we-seeing-the-opposite&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bannerassetmanagement.com&#x2F;rba-modeled-40-fall-in...</a>

I sure hope so after the insane 50-100% bull run of the last two years

I suspect anywhere there&#x27;s substantial tourism&#x2F;airbnb activity the prices have taken a bubble-like trajectory. And I don&#x27;t see that abating, travel is only increasing. It&#x27;d require something like regulations reeling in the whole short-term rental business, or something else killing tourism.<p>So I&#x27;m inclined to ignore these numbers for anywhere having significant tourism.

I bought into a new community this year. When I signed late last year, most of the street was sold before the foundations were poured.<p>They&#x27;re now building the next section, a few blocks away. Many of those houses are approaching completion and are still for sale.

Moody&#x27;s is corrupt to the core, so I take anything they say with a grain of salt.

I&#x27;d be careful about putting too much stock in these predictions. If you look at Moody&#x27;s chart from 2019, in the article, it shows counties like San Diego as being &quot;overvalued&quot; by 5%, when in fact prices skyrocketed in the double-digits since then. Similar story in other counties. I&#x27;d want to see a per-county comparison of Moody&#x27;s 2019 prediction vs actual +&#x2F;- increase in three years following, before determining their validity.

Any chance this will touch the bay area prices?

It&#x27;ll be interesting to see what happens to inventory-for-sale numbers. Presumably the market won&#x27;t be flooded with forced sales and foreclosures like 2009. One also wonders if the big corporate investors who have been hoovering up properties will choose to wait for the market to bottom.

My area is one of the more extremely overvalued ones; we’ve been looking at relocating but if we actually correct anywhere near as much as this indicates we will happily be in the market.

Wonder if this will crush overlevereged REITs

Fortune has been reposting this over and over fwiw