The Crimean Bridge Is on Fire

UKR also seems to have struck at the only other rail line for southern Ukraine today [0,1]. If true, then the only supply route to Kherson and Crimea is the M14 highway and the one lane of the Kerch bridge. The M14 is problematic at it runs through areas of high UKR partisan activity. The one last lane on the Kerch bridge is also not likely to last long if it is going to be used as a main supply hub for all of RU operations, not only due to UKR strikes, but just normal wear and tear in winter. Supplying via sea is also a no-go as we saw with the sinking of the Moskova and the strikes against RU airbases in Crimea.<p>There is likely no workable method of supply or reinforcement for RU forces in southern Ukraine this winter.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;euromaidanpress.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;10&#x2F;08&#x2F;himars-strike-destroys-fuel-station-in-russian-occupied-ilovaisk-videos&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;euromaidanpress.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;10&#x2F;08&#x2F;himars-strike-destroy...</a><p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;PhillipsPOBrien&#x2F;status&#x2F;1578635797359898625" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;PhillipsPOBrien&#x2F;status&#x2F;15786357973598986...</a>

Security camera footage of the explosion. (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;RALee85&#x2F;status&#x2F;1578638952885784576" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;RALee85&#x2F;status&#x2F;1578638952885784576</a>)<p>If it was a truck bomb, it would had to have been a suicide bomber, but I have doubts. Observe the small car that was just going past in the opposing lane at the instant of the explosion. It kept going and you can see it driving toward the camera. If it had been next to such a large truck bomb, it would have been blown off the road.

<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;Osinttechnical" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;Osinttechnical</a> is covering this pretty well.<p>Russians are claiming it was a truck bomb and this is backed up by recently posted footage of the truck disappearing into a ball of doom.<p>Videos of the explosion(trigger warning: people are dying in these videos):<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;Osinttechnical&#x2F;status&#x2F;1578632284173131776" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;Osinttechnical&#x2F;status&#x2F;157863228417313177...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;Osinttechnical&#x2F;status&#x2F;1578633221041844225" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;Osinttechnical&#x2F;status&#x2F;157863322104184422...</a><p>Update: Looks like it might have been a boat<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;Osinttechnical&#x2F;status&#x2F;1578633877849272321" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;Osinttechnical&#x2F;status&#x2F;157863387784927232...</a>

A couple months ago an interesting video in youtube covered extensively why, being such strategical route this had not happened yet in seven months of war. Destroying the bridge was a major priority for the Ukrainian army.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=7C630mzkvwk" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=7C630mzkvwk</a><p>The situation has changed. With the North route cut, moving an hypothetical tactical nuclear bomb to Crimea or refresh troops is now much more difficult and dangerous. Supporting logistically the current Crimean troops with food or winter clothes is also much more expensive now

I was of the believe that Ukraine did not explode that bridge yet because they would not benefit from it. My thinking went as follows: A.) breaking it would make the land bridge they are fighting the Russians for much more valuable, therefore the Russians would invest more resources to doing so, B.) Breaking it might cut off the escape route for Crimean civilians and therefore turn them against the Ukrainians. C.) The bridge was expensive and in some far future they would probably like to make use of it themselves.<p>Of course that bridge is in a sense both military and civilian infrastructure, so it might just be, that we reached a moment where the points mentioned above no longer outweighed the military&#x2F;logistcal disadvantage the Ukrainians gained from letting it unharmed.<p>Of course another possibility would be that they just were not able to attack it successfully before and this was the first attempt that worked. In that case however we might have noticed some of the bodged attempts.

Would be interested if anyone with civil engineering expertise here could estimate the time it would take Russia to repair this

Here is something I don&#x27;t understand about this war:<p>Russia probably has many thousands of rockets with which they can attack Ukraine&#x27;s territory, right?<p>How can the Ukraine hold on to any territory in this situation? Can&#x27;t Russia just level any area held by Ukrainian forces with rockets?<p>Maybe someone here on HN has the military expertise to explain this?

Wikipedia updated.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mobile.twitter.com&#x2F;bradyafr&#x2F;status&#x2F;1578609848543240192" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mobile.twitter.com&#x2F;bradyafr&#x2F;status&#x2F;15786098485432401...</a>

The damage to the rail-bridge must be quite limited, since Russia’s transport ministry reports trains will be running again at 8pm local time tonight [1].<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nationalpost.com&#x2F;pmn&#x2F;news-pmn&#x2F;railway-traffic-over-crimea-bridge-to-resume-on-saturday-interfax" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nationalpost.com&#x2F;pmn&#x2F;news-pmn&#x2F;railway-traffic-over-c...</a>

A quick video showing the damage: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nitter.net&#x2F;Osinttechnical&#x2F;status&#x2F;1578605334062473216" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nitter.net&#x2F;Osinttechnical&#x2F;status&#x2F;1578605334062473216</a>

The bridge,<p>The bridge,<p>The bridge is on fire!<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=Adgx9wt63NY" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=Adgx9wt63NY</a>

This is a scene straight out of RRR.

Belated birthday present for Putin

wow this is crazy. I guess this mean either more mobilization or straight out war. Didn&#x27;t Putin say that crimea was a red line?

Real war is on the streets, people dying, and it is unacceptable. Meanwhile, propaganda in social media, with all these memes, jokes and threats, and are very disturbing and sickening, because they take worst from real war, inhuman and twisted jokes and package them in meme content for everyone to consume. All this was unimaginable 10 years ago. Also, in my opinion, the worst war propaganda content comes from pro Ukraine usernames, I can not explain why, and what is the point.<p>Bridge is partially reopened for traffic [1]<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.rt.com&#x2F;russia&#x2F;564303-crimean-bridge-traffic-resumed&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.rt.com&#x2F;russia&#x2F;564303-crimean-bridge-traffic-resu...</a>