Energy forecasts for Europe over the next six months are pretty difficult to estimate, and many reports have ulterior motives, i.e. they seem to try to play up or play down the situation based on whether or not they're backing a lifting of sanctions on Russian energy exports, or trying to keep these sanctions in place. Getting around this dynamic requires a systematic approach, i.e. listing all sources of energy and all energy demands. Additionally, Europe seems fairly fractured on energy coordination, as the individual countries seem to be pursuing nationalist agendas on securing their energy supply, rather than having everything be coordinated and directed by the EU.<p>Here's a quick overview of what seem to be the major elements of the LNG picture:<p>Qatar has said long-term LNG contracts to Asia won't be modified to meet European energy demands and thinks that the real crunch will come next year if the war continues, although this winter might be OK:<p><a href="https://worldnewsera.com/news/finance/stock-market/europe-at-risk-of-much-worse-energy-crisis-next-year-warns-qatar/" rel="nofollow">https://worldnewsera.com/news/finance/stock-market/europe-at...</a><p>China has ordered its domestic resellers of LNG to Europe (apparently sourced largely from the Exxon-built Sakhalin projects, which Russia has now seized) to stop reselling to Europe to ensure their own domestic suppy.<p><a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Is-Aggressively-Buying-Up-Cheap-Russian-LNG.html" rel="nofollow">https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Is-Aggressi...</a><p><a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/China-To-Stop-Reselling-LNG-To-Europe.html" rel="nofollow">https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/China-To-Stop-Resell...</a><p>Finally on the LNG picture, the US capacity has been steadily growing and the main desired market for LNG exports seems to be Europe, but whether this will make up for Russian gas is unclear and the costs seem quite a bit higher:<p><a href="https://magazine.offshore-technology.com/us_lng_export_capacity/" rel="nofollow">https://magazine.offshore-technology.com/us_lng_export_capac...</a><p>That's just the LNG picture; the actual domestic capacity of Europe on nuclear and renewables is a whole other picture, and then there's the crude oil needed for air travel and gasoline/diesel vehicles. Whether European countries will share these energy resource among each other, or hoard supplies, is also a factor.<p>It's all pretty difficult to sort out and the spin factor in published reports is very large, so good luck reading the tea leaves.